Wheat prices jump higher.
Corn and soybean suffer moderate setback on Tuesday
Grain prices were mixed today as traders continue to square positions ahead of the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which USDA releases tomorrow morning. Wheat prices found solid forward momentum, with most contracts rising between 1.25% and 2%. In contrast, some profit-taking and technical selling sniped soybean and corn prices, which shifted moderately lower by the close.
More rain and snow will be possible over large portions of the Midwest and Plains between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Few areas south of I-70 will see any measurable moisture during this time, however. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the eastern Corn Belt and warmer-than-normal conditions in the Plains between February 15 and February 21.
On Wall St., the Dow moved another 265 points higher in afternoon trading to 35,356 after another positive batch of corporate earnings reports. Investors remain anxious to see the U.S. Labor Department’s next batch of consumer price index data, out Thursday. Energy prices spilled significantly lower, with crude oil down nearly 2% this afternoon to fall back below $90 per barrel on waning geopolitical pressures. Diesel also dropped nearly 2%, with gasoline down 1.5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+19,000), soybeans (+17,000), soymeal (+6,000) and CBOT wheat (+2,500) contracts, and funds were roughly even when trading soyoil contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices spilled moderately lower after a round of technical selling and profit-taking today, closing with losses of 0.5%. March futures faded 3 cents to $6.3225, with May futures down 3.5 cents to $6.3375.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Tuesday after falling 3 cents lower at two Midwestern processors and firming 5 cents higher at two interior river terminals today.
The February WASDE report sometimes fails to move the needle significantly on grain prices, but that might be different this time around, according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “There are still several key factors that farmers should keep an eye on in Wednesday’s report, especially South American production and domestic corn and soybean stock volumes,” she writes in today’s E-corn-omics blog. “Volatility has been about the only consistent factor moving prices so far this year and the new round of USDA data could add to the recent market upheaval.” Don’t miss Holland’s latest round of analysis – click here to learn more.
European Union corn imports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 385.4 million bushels through February 6, according to the latest data from the European Commission. That’s slightly below last year’s pace so far. Ukraine supplied just over half of that total.
U.S. farmers aren’t the only ones worrying about input shortages this season. In Brazil, reports of Atrazine shortages may negatively affect the country’s corn yields. Brazil’s second corn crop plantings are underway and account for up to three-fourths of the country’s total corn production.
Turkey has provisionally purchased 12.8 million bushels of corn from optional origins in an international tender that recently closed. The grain is for shipment between February 25 and March 15.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa that closes on Thursday. The grain is for shipment starting in April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 368,906 contracts, trending moderately below Monday’s final count of 420,932.
Soybeans
Soybean prices carved out a fresh eight-month high on Monday but retreated moderately lower today after some technical selling and profit-taking as traders braced for tomorrow morning’s WASDE report and shrugged off two more large flash sales announced this morning. March futures fell 13 cents to $15.6875, with May futures down 14.25 cents to $15.72.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to firm after trending 4 to 6 cents higher at two interior river terminals and improving 5 cents at two other Midwestern locations on Tuesday.
Private exporters announced two more large soybean sales to USDA on Tuesday. The first was for 4.9 million bushels to China, and the second was for 12.2 million bushels to unknown destinations. Both sales are for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins September 1.
Just how good are soybean prices right now? “Over the past 15 years, nearby futures closed over last week’s $15.64 high only 2% of the time,” notes grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “New crop November futures fared almost as well. The $14 high this week bettered than all but 4% of the closes since prices entered a new paradigm thanks to surging Chinese demand and South American production.” Knorr offers more insights in a recent Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country will export 275.6 million bushels of soybeans in February, which was well below week-ago estimates of 364.6 million bushels. Anec also expects Brazilian corn exports to reach 20.5 million bushels this month.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 293.2 million bushels through February 6, trending 11% below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also down year-over-year, at 9.85 million metric tons.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 308,703 contracts, sliding slightly below Monday’s final count of 329,455.
Wheat
Wheat prices got a solid boost after a round of technical buying today, with most contracts capturing double-digit gains by the close. March Chicago SRW futures gained 10.75 cents to $7.7950, March Kansas City HRW futures rose 11 cents to $8.0275, and March MGEX spring wheat futures climbed 18.75 cents to $9.40.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 621.7 million bushels through February 6, trending slightly higher year-over-year. France, Romania and Germany were the top three exporting nations. EU barley exports are also slightly above last year’s pace, with 236.1 million bushels.
The results of a Statistics Canada farm survey were released earlier today, showing the country’s all-wheat stocks were at 573.2 million bushels through December 31, which is a 38% reduction from a year earlier. That was also well below analyst estimates of 635.7 million bushels ahead of today’s report.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 180,024 CBOT contracts, moving moderately above Monday’s final count of 151,463.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
636.75
627.25
632.25
-3
22-May
638.5
628.75
634
-3.5
Soybeans
22-Mar
1586.5
1559
1569
-13
22-May
1590.5
1563.25
1572.5
-14.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
454.9
449.5
453.7
1.8
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
65.49
63.27
63.45
-2.07
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
782
754
778.75
10.75
22-May
786.75
761
784
8.5
KC Wheat
22-Mar
803.25
777.25
801.25
11
22-May
806
782.25
804.5
9.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
941.75
909.5
940.5
18.75
22-May
938.25
907.75
936.25
16.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Feb
142.425
141.325
141.875
0.05
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
172.025
169.35
172
1.725
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
104.675
100.875
103.925
2.65
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Mar
91.68
88.51
89.15
-2.17
Diesel
22-Mar
2.8617
2.7463
2.7905
-0.0649
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Mar
2.6917
2.5957
2.6227
-0.0626
Natural Gas
22-Apr
4.343
4.157
4.167
-0.031
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
95.745
95.39
95.64
0.248
Gold $/ounce
22-Mar
1828.7
1815.7
1826.3
5.7
Copper
22-Feb
4.469
4.425
4.469
0.0075
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 02/04)
DAP Tampa-index
810.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
772.7
34
Urea-New Orleans
668.0
70
Urea-Middle East
687.5
33
Urea-Black Sea
710.0
43
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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