Soy strives to stay at $16/bushel as exports strengthen. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Wheat mixed amid strong European wheat conditions, drought in the U.S. Plains
Corn down 1-2 cents
Soybeans up 3-7 cents; Soymeal up $0.60/ton; Soyoil up $0.21/lb
Chicago wheat down 1-3 cents; Kansas City wheat up 1 cent; Minneapolis wheat down 1 cent
*Prices as of 6:55am CST.
Note: The markets are closed on Monday, Feb. 21 in observance of Presidents’ Day. Come back Tuesday for more commentary from Jacqueline Holland and Ben Potter!
Corn
Corn prices struggled to overcome losses in the energy markets this morning, drifting $0.01-$0.02/bushel lower on lower crude oil prices. Steady corn shipments out of the world’s number four corn exporter, Ukraine, even amid ongoing geopolitical tensions at the Russian border also contributed to the morning’s losses.
However, losses were capped by ongoing production and weather concerns in South America.
Soybeans
Soybean prices continued higher this morning, buoyed by a bullish weekly export sales report from USDA yesterday as well as three consecutive days of announcements of large daily soybean export sales as well.
“The 3 million tonnes in U.S. export sales is a demonstration of significant export capacity being lost in the southern Brazil and Argentina area,” Michael Magdovitz, commodity analyst at Rabobank, told Reuters this morning. “The demand is moving north and prices are moving north too.”
Shrinking South American soy supplies and rising demand in the U.S. export market for both soybeans and soyoil lifted soybean futures prices $0.03-$0.07/bushel higher this morning as the market struggles to hold against price resistance at the $16/bushel benchmark. Soyoil prices returned to the black after trading at a loss earlier this morning.
Amid ongoing economic uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region and shrinking soy supplies in South America, top global edible oil importer India has snatched up a record volume of U.S. soyoil.
Indian buyers have booked a record 100,000 metric tonnes (MT) in soyoil purchases from the U.S., an astonishing volume considering that India typically sources around two-thirds of its soyoil imports from Argentina, with the remaining third largely imported from Brazil.
“Edible oil importers were looking for an alternative in the form of soyoil, but massive output reduction is going on for the soybean crop in South America,” a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm told Reuters. The dealer estimates that India could purchase up to 160,000 tonnes of soyoil from the U.S. in 2021/22, a 29% increase from last year’s volumes.
With the future of biofuel mandates in the U.S. largely uncertain, soyoil markets have provided a lucrative option for U.S. soy growers in recent months, especially as global soyoil supplies shrink to the sixth tightest volume on record. Shrinking palm oil production and Ukrainian uncertainties in the sunflower oil market have created an intense supply squeeze on the world’s top three edible oils markets.
“Sunflower oil is cheaper than palm and soyoil, but some buyers are sceptical about deliveries because of geopolitical tension (in Russia),” Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm told Reuters. “They are going with soyoil.”
Light showers are headed for Argentina this weekend with heavier accumulation forecasted through the next week. The accumulation will be critical for corn and soybean crop development over the next two weeks as South America continues to endure a blistering, La Nina-induced drought.
USDA has cut a combined 669 million bushels of soybean production estimates from Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay over the past two months due to drought damage, as well as from additional damage from untimely harvest rains in Northern Brazil.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange in Argentina projects that only 31% of Argentina’s soybean crop is in good to excellent condition, while a scant 19% of its corn crop is categorized as good to excellent. Both metrics have fallen “below the averages of the last five campaigns,” with harvesting starting “earlier than normal due to the drought.”
Wheat
Egypt issued a tender for wheat imports yesterday, which eased concern about wheat shipments out of the Black Sea, especially as ongoing diplomatic efforts have helped stave off a potential Russian invasion into Ukraine. Despite a stronger dollar, U.S. wheat futures slipped $0.01-$0.04/bushel as the market took a breather on the overarching sentiments as profit-takers swooped in following yesterday’s 3% higher rally.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported overnight that 95% of the country’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent condition as of this past Monday. France is the European Union’s largest wheat producer. The EU will likely lead the world in wheat export volumes in 2021/22.
Winter wheat crops across Europe have benefited from mild to moderate temperatures this winter and plentiful precipitation. Barring a cold snap late in the dormancy stage for the wheat crops, current conditions point to a strong harvest so far, which could help offset potential drought damage to U.S. winter wheat crops this summer.
Weather
Temperatures will warm back up today after yesterday’s snow and rain showers across the Central Mississippi River Valley, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. A chance of snow is on the way for the Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours though skies are likely to remain clear elsewhere across the Heartland over the next 24 hours.
Nationwide drought readings soared to the driest readings in seven weeks in yesterday’s weekly U.S. Drought Monitor update. As of Tuesday, 72.58% of U.S. acreage was reported to be in abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions, marking a 1.41% nationwide increase in soil moisture depletion over the past week.
The High Plains (92.12%) and West (95.31%) continue to bear the most suffering from the ongoing drought. Though dry conditions in the Midwest this past week saw abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions in the region rise 2.61% on the week to 47.67%.
While the Midwest has not yet reported any acreage in exceptional drought condition, moderate drought conditions in Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northern Illinois could delay corn and soybean planting in those regions this spring and potentially hinder crop development if more precipitation does not fall in the coming weeks.
These dry conditions to the West of the Mississippi River and adequate moisture readings in the Eastern Corn Belt are characteristic of a second consecutive La Nina year. But the moisture shortages in the West and Plains continue to compound after last year’s La Nina-induced dryness.
Financials
S&P 500 futures rose 22.5 points (0.51%) overnight to $4,397 following a Wall Street selloff yesterday on looming Russian geopolitical tensions and an impending Federal Funds interest rate increase expected from the Federal Reserve next month as inflationary pressures continue to surge.
Markets rose this morning as more diplomatic efforts were underway between the U.S. State Department and Russia, as well as between other European countries and Russia, to quell fears of an impending Russian invasion into Ukraine.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com
Brian Splitt compares market dynamics of 2008 and current day, hinting at a drop in prices for the soybean market.
Darren Frye explains how elevators make money in the latest Finance First column.
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai shared trade updates on Mexico and Phase 1 during yesterday’s U.S. Grains Council annual meeting.
Iowa State economist Bobby Martens has some fresh insights about how to strengthen resiliency in the supply chain.
Advance Trading’s Brian Basting breaks down a single day in the soybean futures market to show how price prediction is a less effective marketing tool than using risk strategies.
Wholesale urea prices continue to slide. But high fuel costs could offset any potential price savings, warns Bryce Knorr.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 2/18/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAR ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5025
6.47
6.4825
-0.0175
-0.27%
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4925
6.46
6.475
-0.0175
-0.27%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4425
6.4175
6.43
-0.02
-0.31%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.0725
6.055
6.065
-0.0125
-0.21%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
5.9575
5.935
5.945
-0.02
-0.34%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.0275
6.005
6.02
-0.015
-0.25%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.065
6.045
6.0575
-0.0125
-0.21%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.02
15.875
15.995
0.075
0.47%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.0525
15.9
16.0225
0.0625
0.39%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.0225
15.8725
16
0.065
0.41%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.685
15.5375
15.665
0.0725
0.46%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.0375
14.9
15.0325
0.0725
0.48%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6925
14.5325
14.6625
0.055
0.38%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.67
14.51
14.635
0.0475
0.33%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.3725
14.23
14.3375
0.0375
0.26%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.24
14.18
14.2275
0.045
0.32%
MAR ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
67.19
66.47
66.8
-0.01
-0.01%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
67.24
66.53
66.85
-0.03
-0.04%
MAR ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
452.1
447.7
450.5
1.3
0.29%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
450.1
445.4
448.5
1
0.22%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
449.7
444.8
448.3
1.2
0.27%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
441.9
437.5
441.2
1.8
0.41%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
431.5
428.8
431.1
1.2
0.28%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9925
7.9
7.9525
-0.0275
-0.34%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.0575
7.97
8.02
-0.0275
-0.34%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.005
7.915
7.97
-0.0325
-0.41%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.02
7.9325
7.9825
-0.04
-0.50%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.05
7.9825
8.0325
-0.0375
-0.46%
MAR ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.2375
8.1575
8.2225
-0.0075
-0.09%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.285
8.2025
8.27
-0.0075
-0.09%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.29
8.215
8.29
0
0.00%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.33
8.265
8.33
-0.0025
-0.03%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.4075
8.3425
8.3975
-0.01
-0.12%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.585
9.55
9.57
-0.0025
-0.03%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.595
9.5475
9.565
-0.0075
-0.08%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.535
9.485
9.5075
-0.01
-0.11%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.2475
9.1875
9.2475
0.02
0.22%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.15
9.15
9.15
-0.0325
-0.35%
MAR ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
95.93
95.725
95.795
-0.008
-0.01%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
91.87
89.03
89.94
-1.82
-1.98%
AP ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
90.18
87.46
88.33
-1.71
-1.90%
MAR ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
2.7941
2.7147
2.7375
-0.0487
-1.75%
APR ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
2.7464
2.6728
2.695
-0.0445
-1.62%
MAR ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.6563
2.5865
2.6044
-0.0442
-1.67%
APR ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.8014
2.7316
2.7497
-0.0463
-1.66%
MAR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
166.2
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
171.15
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
143.4
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
146.775
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
107.575
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
111.325
0
0.00%
FEB ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.89
20.85
20.85
-0.03
-0.14%
MAR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
22.39
22.33
22.39
0.04
0.18%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
22.71
22.7
22.7
-0.16
-0.70%
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
