Afternoon report: Corn finds modest gains Tuesday, while wheat prices struggle.
All eyes were on wheat prices once again on Tuesday, but it was soybean prices that quietly stole the spotlight by the close, capturing double-digit gains and rising 2% after a round of technical buying today. Corn prices made modest inroads, and wheat prices took a rollercoaster ride as traders struggled to digest a vague decree from Vladimir Putin that blocks “certain materials” from being exported out of Russia. Most wheat contracts closed with losses of around 5% today.
Some more wet weather is moving through the Midwest and Plains later this week. Most areas outside of the Dakotas will see at least some measurable moisture between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts near-normal temperatures for much of the Corn Belt between March 15 and March 21, with seasonally wet weather likely for the upper Midwest and eastern Corn Belt.
On Wall St., the Dow was trending 585 points higher this morning but settled for 58 points higher by mid-afternoon, reaching 32,876. Investors remain skittish about the implications of the Russian/Ukraine conflict on inflation and rapidly rising costs of commodities such as oil, gasoline, natural gas and even some metals that include nickel and palladium. Crude oil jumped another 3.5% higher this afternoon to $123 per barrel. Diesel climbed more than 11% higher, while gasoline rose 3.25%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+4,000) and CBOT wheat (+14,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-2,500), soybeans (-1,000) and soymeal (-2,000).
Today is International Women’s Day. In our little corner of the world, ag journalism is absolutely packed with exceptional female writers, editors, designers and more. Here’s a special shout-out to them all, but especially for my esteemed colleagues Jacqueline Holland (Farm Futures grain market analyst) and Jacqui Fatka (Farm Futures policy editor).
NOTE: Farm Futures is conducting its March 2022 survey to project acreage estimates ahead of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report. We will release the survey results ahead of USDA’s numbers to help you adjust your grain marketing plans accordingly. Click here to take our survey – as thanks, you’ll be entered for a chance to win one of five $50 Amazon gift cards.
Corn
Corn prices emerged from a choppy session with modest gains after some net technical buying today. Prices have improved around 10% since Russia invaded Ukraine (the two countries combined account for nearly 20% of the world’s corn exports). Today, March futures added 5.25 cents to $7.5450, with May futures up 2.5 cents to $7.5325.
Corn basis bids were highly variable on Tuesday after jumping as much as 30 cents higher at an Illinois processor while tumbling as much as 13 cents lower at an Ohio elevator today.
Iran issued an international tender to purchase 2.4 million bushels of feed corn, 2.8 million bushels of animal feed barley and 60,000 metric tons of soymeal that closes on May 9. The country is seeking rapid shipment for March and April as it looks to shore up domestic supplies after the worst drought in more than a generation.
Be sure not to miss the invigorating tale of Roger Denhart, an American farmer who splits his time in Florida while also managing a 5,000-acre farm in Ukraine. “We’re not even considering not planting this spring, but obviously we will take it day by day,” he told Farm Futures executive editor Mike Wilson. Click here to learn more about Denhart and view a slideshow of photos he has shared from Ukraine.
Amid the ongoing Ukraine/Russia conflict, Senate Agriculture Committee ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.) has called for a deadline delay for the Conservation Reserve Program this year. In a letter to Vilsack, Boozman stresses flexibility should be a “top priority” so that “millions of acres of cropland and pasture that would have otherwise remained idle” can be farmed to “address both inflation and food security concerns.” Farm Futures policy editor Jacqui Fatka did additional reporting on the issue – click here to learn more.
Perhaps lost in the shuffle is the fact that USDA will release it’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report tomorrow morning. Don’t get caught flat-footed! Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland serves up a fresh round of thoughts ahead of the report – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 337,581 contracts, moving slightly ahead of Monday’s final count of 325,002.
Soybeans
Soybean prices firmed 2% after a round of technical buying today, with the focus still largely around South America’s production potential as this season’s harvest rolls along. March and May futures each rose 30.25 cents to close at $17.0450 and $16.8975, respectively.
Soybean basis bids showed some volatility in both directions on Tuesday after firming as much as 20 cents at an Illinois processor and sliding as much as 14 cents lower at an Ohio elevator today.
Private exporters announced two large soybean sales this morning. The first was for 4.9 million bushels for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins September 1, and the second was for 4.6 million bushels to unknown destinations during the current marketing year.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country will export 505.6 million bushels of soybeans in March, which is 17% above the group’s prior projection. Anec does not expect Brazil to export any corn this month, however.
South Korea purchased 50,000 metric tons of soymeal from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival by the end of June.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 190,642 contracts, shifting moderately above Monday’s final count of 153,625.
Wheat
Wheat prices sputtered as a round of technical selling and profit-taking finally occurred on Tuesday. May CBOT contracts had grabbed limit-up gains in the previous five sessions. Today, May Chicago SRW futures dropped 13.5 cents to $12.8050, May Kansas City HRW futures tumbled 62.75 cents to $11.8875, and May MGEX spring wheat futures lost 58.5 cents to $11.39.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 7.1 million bushels of hard red spring wheat for delivery to the Philippines during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins June 1.
Ukraine’s 2021 harvest jumped 32% higher from the prior year, yet the country has seen its export efforts grind to a halt after Russia invaded in late February. However, the agriculture ministry recently announced that export licenses for agricultural goods will be issued within a day of being requested.
Amid soaring global prices and rampant supply chain challenges in the Black Sea region, India indicated it has signed contracts to export 18.4 million bushels of wheat and may end up exporting as much as 257 million bushels of wheat this year. “The buyers, who are worried about supply disruptions from Ukraine and Russia, know that only India can be a big, steady supplier of wheat at this point of time, and that’s why they have turned to India,” a trader told Reuters.
Meantime, several international tenders closed earlier this week without deals being made, including offers by South Korea and Tunisia. Prices were regarded as too high.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 259,063 CBOT contracts, trending well above Monday’s final count of 157,860.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
759
724
754.5
5.25
22-May
760.75
728.75
753
2.5
Soybeans
22-Mar
1708
1674.25
1704.5
30.25
22-May
1706.5
1649.75
1689.75
30.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
476.5
455
473.3
13.1
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
76.19
73.77
75.75
1.35
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
1319.25
1275.5
1273
-152.25
22-May
1363.5
1164
1286.5
-13.5
KC Wheat
22-Mar
1190
1190
1186
-47.75
22-May
1272.25
1121.5
1199.5
-62.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
1161.5
22-May
1211.75
1137.5
1144
-58.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
139.95
137.825
139.05
1.15
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
162.25
159.4
160.725
1.05
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
108.475
106.025
108.225
3.15
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
129.44
117.07
123.58
4.18
Diesel
22-Apr
4.4661
3.9044
4.436
0.5145
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.8329
3.5248
3.6886
0.1165
Natural Gas
22-May
4.909
4.541
4.571
-0.287
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
99.33
98.7
99.06
-0.235
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
2078.8
1985.8
2032.9
39
Copper
22-Mar
4.919
4.602
4.727
0.005
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 02/25)
DAP Tampa-index
842.5
7.5
DAP-New Orleans
857.1
19.29
Urea-New Orleans
683.4
99.21
Urea-Middle East
665.0
65
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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