Afternoon report: Corn also firms Friday, with soybeans facing moderate losses.
Grain prices on Friday were mixed but mostly higher. Wheat prices finally firmed after suffering three days of heavy losses earlier this week. Prices firmed 1% to 2% higher today but still faced the worst single-week performance in five and a half years. Corn prices were also firm, rising nearly 1% higher as export optimism remains high. Soybeans faded moderately lower, primarily on wetter forecasts for South America.
Some additional rain and snow is possible for parts of the Midwest and Plains between Saturday and Tuesday, with the Ohio River Valley likely to get the most moisture, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Seasonally wet weather should continue across the eastern Corn Belt between March 18 and March 24, per NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook.
On Wall St., the Dow inched 45 points higher to 33,219 but is headed for another losing week as investors remain skittish amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Negotiations between the two countries continue without the promise of a ceasefire so far. Energy prices pushed higher, with crude oil up 2.75% this afternoon to close in on $103 per barrel. Diesel rose 3%, while gasoline jumped more than 4%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+20,000), soybeans (+11,000), soymeal (+4,500) and soyoil (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of CBOT wheat (-20,000).
NOTE: Farm Futures is conducting its March 2022 survey to project acreage estimates ahead of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report. We will release the survey results ahead of USDA’s numbers to help you adjust your grain marketing plans accordingly. Click here to take our survey – as thanks, you’ll be entered for a chance to win one of five $50 Amazon gift cards.
Corn
Corn prices continued to rise moderately higher on Friday as export optimism remains relatively strong, especially after another flash sale was announced this morning. March futures added 6.75 cents to $7.6450, with May futures up 7 cents to $7.6275.
Corn basis bids firmed 2 cents at an Ohio elevator and an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.1 million bushels of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn prices may be “poised to pounce” due to strong fundamentals, but it may take some effort to cut through the noise right now, according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. Blohm takes a closer look at the situation and offers some expert analysis in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Every farmer with unpriced corn or beans in the bin is a speculator, according to grain marketing consultant Roger Wright. Are you making the most efficient use of your money? Wright walks through some scenarios in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve visited FarmFutures.com, we always recommend the Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” as a quick, easy way to catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes stories about upgrades to Raven’s autonomous system, a breakthrough in gene editing for the cattle industry and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 201,246 contracts, spilling 29% below Thursday’s final count of 282,665.
Soybeans
Soybean prices faded moderately lower as traders weighed a flash sale to China announced this morning against some much-needed rains forecast for South America. Ultimately, March futures fell 9.25 cents to $16.9075, with May futures down 6.75 cents to $16.7950.
Soybean basis bids firmed 3 cents at an Indiana processor on Friday while fading 5 cents lower at two other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 9.7 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins September 1.
Brazil announced a national fertilizer plan in an attempt to lower its dependence on imports after Russia’s invasion into Ukraine created ample supply disruptions. Brazil currently sources 85% of its fertilizer usage and wants to lower that number to 45% by 2050. Brazil is the world’s fourth largest consumer of fertilizer.
China’s state grain stockpiler has auctioned off nearly 60,000 metric tons of soyoil from its strategic reserves, which was 84% of the total available for sale, in an attempt to boost domestic supplies. Sinograin also plans to auction off 10.9 million bushels of its soybean reserves this coming Monday.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 138,612 contracts, falling moderately below Thursday’s final count of 182,774.
Wheat
Wheat prices were down overnight but climbed back into the green on Friday and ultimately closed 1% to 2% higher after a round of technical buying today. May Chicago SRW futures rose 20 cents to $11.07, May Kansas City HRW futures climbed 23.25 cents to $10.89, and May MGEX spring wheat futures added 12.25 cents to $10.6725.
Although export capacities are limited, Ukraine is making moves to send grain through the country’s western borders, according to APK-Inform. The consultancy notes that prior to the war, Ukraine was exporting around 184 million bushels of grain monthly. In the short term, it should be able to move approximately 22 million bushels per month via rail transportation.
Meantime, Ukrainian farmers will plant as much of their intended acres as possible this spring, according to a statement from President Zelensky. “The emphasis will be on spring crops that will be harvested in the summer, because we do not know what the situation will be [going forward],” added Denys Marchuk, head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
Official customs data in Russia showed the country exported 53.2 million bushels of January, a year-over-year decline of 53%.
French farm office FranceAgriMer estimates that 92% of this year’s soft wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition through March 7. That’s down a point from a week ago but up from year-over-year ratings of 88%. France is Europe’s top wheat producer.
As expected, Japan has purchased 6.0 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Just over half (51%) of the total was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment beginning in late April.
Taiwan purchased 1.8 million bushels of milling wheat sourced from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between late April and early May.
Tunisia purchased 4.6 million bushels of soft wheat and 4.6 million bushels of animal feed barley from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. “With no sign of an end to the fighting in Ukraine and no sign grain exports will resume, it looks like importers have no choice but to pay up if they need supplies,” one trader told Reuters. The grain is for shipment between late March and mid-May.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 111,877 CBOT contracts, shifting moderately below Thursday’s final count of 159,853.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
768.5
755
764.5
6.75
22-May
764.5
744
762.5
7
Soybeans
22-Mar
1707.25
1680.75
1690.75
-9.25
22-May
1695.75
1665.25
1676
-6.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
485.7
468.4
477.1
-5.3
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
76.84
73.16
76.03
1.47
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
1044.75
1030.75
1090
16.25
22-May
1126.25
1043.25
1106.5
20
KC Wheat
22-Mar
1061.75
1075.75
22-May
1105.25
1035.5
1089.25
23.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
870
1099.25
22-May
1102
1030.5
1070.25
12.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
137.7
136
137.3
1.4
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
158.6
156.625
157.9
1.65
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
110.325
107.65
110.15
2.775
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
110.29
104.48
109.43
3.41
Diesel
22-Apr
3.5229
3.1699
3.4211
0.1249
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.3186
3.0874
3.3072
0.1505
Natural Gas
22-May
4.837
4.666
4.814
0.145
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
99.14
98.26
99.11
0.606
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
2004
1960.6
1987.6
-10.5
Copper
22-Mar
4.6875
4.608
4.619
-0.0245
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 03/11)
DAP Tampa-index
895.0
27.5
DAP-New Orleans
1,047.2
68.89
Urea-New Orleans
901.1
168
Urea-Middle East
1,002.5
172
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
661.4
52.36
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