Grain prices have seen plenty of volatility in recent weeks, turning back into the green on Friday as lingering concerns about export potential in Ukraine and Russia triggered some technical buying. The results were variable, as soybeans picked up gains of 0.5% and corn prices rose 0.75%. Wheat prices fared even better today, with contracts tracking between 1.2% and 2.4% higher.
Between Saturday and Monday, the Plains should stay completely dry while parts of the eastern Corn Belt could gather a little more moisture, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, with seasonally cool weather likely for most of the U.S. between April 1 and April 7.
On Wall St., the Dow trended 96 points higher in afternoon trading to 34,804. Investors remain glued to the latest trends in inflation, interest rates and the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil moved 0.6% higher this afternoon to $113 per barrel on news that a Saudi Arabian storage facility was hit by a missile from Yemen. Gasoline rose 1.5%, while diesel dropped 1.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-10,000), soybeans (-10,000), soyoil (-3,000) and CBOT wheat (-8,000).
Corn
Corn prices followed a broad range of other commodities higher on Friday, finishing Friday’s session with gains of around 0.75%. Worries over spring plantings in Ukraine (or lack thereof) lent additional support. May futures added 5.5 cents to $7.5375, with July futures up 5.75 cents to $7.3425. Nearby contracts moved 1.7% higher this week.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm on Friday after rising 3 to 6 cents higher at four Midwestern locations. An Ohio river terminal bucked the overall trend after sliding 6 cents lower today.
Spring plantings of corn, soybeans, sunflowers and other row crops has begun in Ukraine, with more than 370,000 acres sown so far. However, total acres could fall by more than half of initial expectations (i.e., before the war) to 17.297 million acres. Ukraine is one of the world’s top corn and wheat exporters.
A farmer survey conducted by Farm Futures ahead of next week’s Prospective Plantings report from USDA suggests that farmers planned early for high 2022 input costs and have been largely unmoved by recent swings in commodity prices in making 2022 acreage decisions. The survey results suggest U.S. farmers could plant 90.379 million corn acres (down nearly 3 million acres from last year) and 92.208 million soybean acres (up more than 5 million acres from last year). The survey collected a wealth of information – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Safras & Mercado reported that the country’s second corn crop will climb significantly above last season’s drought-stressed crop to reach 3.279 billion bushels. Brazilian corn exports in 2021/22 could jump 66% higher than the prior year, to 1.358 billion bushels.
Turkey has made provisional purchases of 6.4 million bushels of corn that was already being stored in local warehouses in a tender that closed earlier this week. The grain is for delivery between early April and early May.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 147,204 contracts, falling moderately below Thursday’s final count of 193,879.
Soybeans
Soybean prices rose 0.5% higher after a new flash sale to China announced this morning infused fresh export optimism and spurred some technical buying. Spillover strength from other grains and crude oil lent additional support today. May futures gained 9 cents to $17.0975, while July futures picked up 4.75 cents to $16.87.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Friday but did tilt 3 cents higher at an Ohio elevator today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve been to FarmFutures.com, why not read our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” to quickly catch up on the ag industry’s top headlines? The latest batch of content includes stories about National Ag Day, results from a new nitrogen emissions study and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 109,639 contracts, tracking 18% below Thursday’s final count of 134,336.
Wheat
Wheat prices trended 1.2% to 2.4% higher as the lingering conflict in Ukraine raises more than a few questions about how the country will be able to plant, harvest and export grain in the near future. That led to a round of technical buying that put all nearby contracts at or very close to $11 per bushel. May Chicago SRW futures gained 14 cents to $10.9975, May Kansas City HRW futures added 13 cents to $11.08, and May MGEX spring wheat futures rose 26 cents to $11.0875.
The latest updates to the U.S. Drought Monitor indicate that 71.9% of the country is experiencing some level of drought, down from a seasonal peak of 75.1% earlier this month. In the Northern Plains, 86.7% of the region is affected, while in the Midwest, 40.9% is affected.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported that 92% of the country’s soft wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition through March 21, which was steady from the prior week and five points above year-ago ratings. France is Europe’s top wheat producer.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine could stall global growth for at least a year, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “I am concerned about spillovers to countries, for example, that are heavily dependent on wheat. Wheat prices have been soaring,” Yellen noted in an interview with CNBC.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 51,596 CBOT contracts, slipping slightly below Thursday’s final count of 56,664.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
755.25
742.5
754
5.5
22-Jul
735
723.5
734.75
5.75
Soybeans
22-May
1714.25
1684.75
1710.25
9
22-Jul
1691.75
1666.75
1688.5
4.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
484.6
475.5
480.4
1.5
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
72.9
71.01
72.61
0.39
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1109
1064.75
1102.25
14
22-Jul
1099
1055.5
1092.5
13.75
KC Wheat
22-May
1116
1074.25
1110.75
13
22-Jul
1111.75
1069.75
1107
12.5
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1109
1071.25
1104.25
26
22-Jul
1105
1072
1102.25
24.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140.5
139.825
140.25
0.575
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
163.25
161.15
161.15
-1.575
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
118.625
114.775
118
3.875
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
114.12
108.68
113.44
1.1
Diesel
22-Apr
4.2
3.91
4.102
-0.0514
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.4743
3.311
3.4538
0.0641
Natural Gas
22-May
5.617
5.386
5.597
0.151
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
98.865
98.42
98.79
-0.01
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
1965.1
1942.6
Copper
22-Mar
4.7025
4.683
4.683
-0.046
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 03/18)
DAP Tampa-index
1,017.5
122
DAP-New Orleans
1,083.0
35.83
Urea-New Orleans
983.3
82.12
Urea-Middle East
1,120.0
117
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
661.4
0
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Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all move higher in Friday’s session.
