Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat face losses for second consecutive session.
Grain prices spent another day in the red as hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine triggered a round of technical selling, as did more favorable forecasts for parts of the U.S. Plains. Wheat prices suffered the heaviest blow, with most contracts tumbling more than 4% lower. Corn prices dropped 2.75%, with soybeans down around 1.25%.
Plenty of rain is on its way to the Midwest late this week. A band stretching from Louisiana all the way through Michigan could deliver 1″ to 1.5″ or more between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for most areas east of the Mississippi River between April 5 and April 11, with cooler-than-normal conditions developing in the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley.
On Wall St., the Dow firmed 219 points in afternoon trading to 35,175 as investors remain highly interested in ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Although it’s also worth noting that Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba has noted: “Nothing is agreed upon unless everything is agreed upon.” Energy futures trended lower, with crude oil falling another 1% this afternoon to $104 per barrel. Diesel dropped 1.3%, while gasoline saw just fractional losses. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-8,000), soybeans (-17,500), soymeal (-6,500), soyoil (-8,000) and CBOT wheat (-17,500).
Corn
Corn prices have had a fairy rough March, and today’s action was another example of that. Prices went limit down early in the session but recovered somewhat by the close. However, ample technical selling still left prices with losses of around 2.75%. May futures dropped 20.5 cents to $7.28, while July futures fell 20.25 cents to $7.1025.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm on Tuesday after increasing 1 to 8 cents across four Midwestern locations. An Ohio river terminal was the exception to the trend, sliding 4 cents lower today.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports for the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 474.4 million bushels through March 27, which is trending fractionally below last year’s pace so far.
Turkey ended up buying around 3.9 million bushels of corn from optional origins in an international tender that recently closed. However, the country had initially made provisional purchases that was triple the final amount, but ended up scaling back final volumes. The grain is for shipment starting on April 8.
Thursday’s Prospective Plantings report from USDA is one of the agency’s most highly anticipated reports of the entire year. Be sure to tune in to Farm Futures soon after the report drops at 11 a.m. CST And then join us for a special online live event at 1 p.m. CST featuring analysis from Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. Click here for additional details.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 404,309 contracts, which more than doubled Monday’s final count of 182,540.
Soybeans
Soybean prices fell 1.25% as traders remain skittish amid new Chinese lockdowns that could curb demand there. Spillover weakness from a broad set of other commodities applied additional headwinds today. May futures dropped 20.5 cents to $16.4375, with July futures down 22.75 cents to $16.24.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to firm on Tuesday after rising 2 to 8 cents higher at three Midwestern locations. An Ohio river terminal bucked the overall trend after dropping 5 cents today.
Brazilian investment bank Itau BBA reported today that it expects Brazilian soybean acres for the 2022/23 season to expand by 0.5%, which would be the slowest growth in 15 years, if realized. This past season, Brazilian soybean plantings increased by 3.8% to 100.5 million acres. Itau BBA also projects that Brazilian soybean production next season will reach 5.181 billion bushels.
Meantime, Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 476.1 million bushels in March, which is slightly higher than its projection from a week ago. Anec estimates that Brazil will also export 1.537 million metric tons of soymeal this month.
India purchased 45,000 metric tons of sunflower oil, sourced from Russia at record-high prices of $2,150 per ton. Compare that to pre-invasion prices of $1,630 per ton. The oil is for shipment in April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 171,315 contracts, shifting moderately above Monday’s final count of 140,664.
Wheat
Wheat prices tumbled on news that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has led to some scaling back on some of the invasions fronts. Both countries are major wheat exporters, so that news had wheat prices plummeting again on Tuesday, with contracts closing with losses of 3.25% to 4.4%. May Chicago SRW futures dropped 44.5 cents to $10.1250, May Kansas City HRW futures lost 47 cents to $10.2350, and May MGEX spring wheat futures fell 36.25 cents to $10.4325.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 730.1 million bushels through March 27, which is slightly behind the prior year’s pace so far. EU barley exports are also slightly lower year-over-year, with 265.9 million bushels.
USDA estimates show Egypt’s appetite for wheat imports could decline 8.3% during the 2022/23 marketing year, sliding to 404.2 million bushels. A lot of that change is due to the country’s production capacity, which is expected to rise by a similar percentage (8.9%). Egypt is the world’s top wheat importer.
Egypt does not typically buy wheat from France, but it will seek fresh French supplies in the near future, according to French finance minister Bruno Le Maire during a visit to Cairo. “We will stand by Egypt to make sure it gets the wheat that it needs in the coming months,” he said. Egypt is also in discussions on possible sales from India, Argentina and the United States.
Brazil’s Anec now estimates that the country’s wheat exports will reach 18.4 million bushels in March, which was slightly below its forecast from a week ago.
Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 5.5 million bushels of soft wheat and 4.6 million bushels of animal feed barley from optional origins that closes on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment beginning in late April depending on the source.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 92,723 CBOT contracts, tracking 47% above Monday’s final count of 62,998.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
747.5
713.5
726.25
-20.5
22-Jul
729
695.5
708.5
-20.25
Soybeans
22-May
1673
1622
1643
-20.5
22-Jul
1655.5
1604
1623.75
-22.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
473
455
461.2
-11.2
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
71.6
68.76
69.87
-0.8
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1068.25
972
1014.25
-44.5
22-Jul
1061.5
967.25
1009.25
-43.5
KC Wheat
22-May
1078.75
993
1024.5
-47
22-Jul
1077.75
993.25
1024.25
-46
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1084.75
1019.5
1043
-36.25
22-Jul
1080
1018.25
1043
-35
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
141.125
140.1
140.9
0.6
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
165
162.3
164.5
3.675
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
119.3
115.2
118.475
-0.825
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
107.84
98.44
104.43
-1.53
Diesel
22-Apr
3.8513
3.4939
3.7289
-0.0545
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.2891
3.0551
3.2157
-0.0031
Natural Gas
22-May
5.527
5.322
5.342
-0.196
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
99.265
98.055
98.445
-0.61
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
1930.5
1891
1916
-23.8
Copper
22-Mar
4.714
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 03/25)
DAP Tampa-index
1,017.5
0
DAP-New Orleans
1,102.3
19.29
Urea-New Orleans
992.1
8.82
Urea-Middle East
1,130.0
10
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
686.2
24.8
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