USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, out this morning, showed U.S. soybean acres could reach record levels this year – which, if realized and assuming trendline yields, could bring a record-breaking production in 2022. That caused prices to tumble 2.75%. Winter wheat prices also faded 1.25% to 2% in a still-volatile environment. But with soybean acres on the rise, that means fewer corn acres, which helped prices firm moderately higher. For our full coverage and analysis of today’s market-shaking report, click here.
After plenty of wet weather earlier this week, there will still be a bit more rain and snow possible across much of the central U.S. between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlooks still shows the probability for drier-than-normal conditions across the Central and Southern Plains between April 7 and April 13, with seasonally cool weather hanging in the eastern Corn Belt and Great Lakes region during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow dropped 228 points in afternoon trading to 35,000 on its way to the first losing quarter in two years as the U.S. continues to grapple with fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation, interest rate hikes and more. There is some bullish sentiment still lurking, however, with the Dow set to improve 5% in March and the S&P 500 rising around 5% higher this month.
Energy futures sank significantly lower Thursday afternoon on the plan to release 1 million barrels per day of U.S. reserves to battle the latest “pain at the pump.” Crude oil sank nearly 7% lower to $100 per barrel. Diesel dropped 3.5%, with gasoline down more than 4% today. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+10,500), soybeans (+9,000), soymeal (+4,500), soyoil (+2,500) and CBOT wheat (+7,000).
Corn
Corn pricesmade moderate inroads after USDA’s Prospective Plantings report expects the lowest number of corn acres in four years. That led to a round of technical buying that lifted prices 1.25% higher. May futures added 9.5 cents to $7.4750, with July futures up 11.5 cents to $7.3150.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm across the central U.S. on Thursday after rising 1 to 6 cents at three Midwestern ethanol plants and tracking 2 cents higher at a Nebraska processor today.
USDA estimates that corn plantings will tilt 4% lower this year, to 89.5 million acres, which is nearly 4 million acres lower (3.87 million) compared to 2021. Versus a year ago, planted acres are expected to hold steady or drop in 43 of the 48 estimating states. That would be the smallest U.S. corn footprint since 2018, but assuming trendline yields of 181.0 bushels per acre, this year’s crop could still come in as the third largest on record, with 14.8 billion bushels.
USDA also showed corn stocks tumbling from 11.647 billion bushels in December down to 7.850 billion bushels in March. That was also slightly below the average trade guess of 7.877 billion bushels but a bit above year-ago results of 7.696 billion bushels.
Old and new crop corn export sales totaled 36.4 million bushels for the week ending March 24. That was toward the lower end of trade guesses, which ranged between 23.6 million and 55.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are close but still slightly behind last year’s pace, with 1.267 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments fared better, trending 24% above the prior four-week average to reach 74.1 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 18.0
Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister reports that the country’s current grain stocks include 511.8 million bushels of corn and 139.6 million bushels of wheat. Over 90% of the country’s exports are sent through its Black Sea ports, which are blockaded amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.
Brazilian consultancy Datagro slightly increased its estimates for the country’s 2021/22 total corn production from 4.638 billion bushels previously up to 4.657 billion bushels in its new estimate. The country suffered widespread drought early this season but the second corn crop has a better chance after recent rains.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 493,589 contracts, more than doubling Wednesday’s final count of 215,008.
Soybeans
Soybean prices stumbled significantly lower after USDA predicted an uptick in 2022 acres, which is enough to deliver record-breaking production if yields can hit trendline or better this season. May futures dropped 46.75 cents to $16.1725, with July futures down 44.75 cents to $15.9775.
Soybean basis bids were largely unchanged across the central U.S. on Thursday but did trend 5 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.
Soybean acres of just below 91.0 million acres will be a record-breaking effort, if realized, according to UDSA’s Prospective Plantings report. Twenty-four of the reporting 29 states are expected to hold steady or increase acres this year. If trendline yields are met (51.5 bpa), that could lead to a record-breaking crop of 4.6 billion bushels.
Soybean stocks dropped from 3.149 billion bushels in December down to 1.931 billion bushels in March – staying moderately above year-ago totals of 1.562 billion bushels. Analysts generally expected to see smaller quarterly stocks, with an average trade guess of 1.902 billion bushels.
Old and new crop soybean sales reached 50.0 million bushels last week. That was toward the higher end of trade estimates, which ranged between 14.7 million and 69.8 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still more than 400 million bushels below last year’s pace, with 1.600 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments improved 22% week-over-week but slipped 6% below the prior four-week average, with 24.6 million bushels. China accounted for nearly half of that total, with 12.2 million bushels.
Brazilian consultancy Datagro now estimates that the country’s 2021/22 soybean production will fall 4% short of its prior forecast, with a new projection of 4.597 billion bushels. The consensus is increasingly stronger that Brazil will fail to see a 5-billion-bushel crop this season.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 214,352 contracts, trending well above Wednesday’s final count of 122,632.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower after USDA showed some uneven acreage expectations this season. Spring wheat acres are expected to fall year-over-year, causing prices to jump more than 3% higher today. But winter wheat acres are on the rise, leading to a round of technical selling and moderate losses. May Chicago SRW futures fell 19.25 cents to $10.08, May Kansas City HRW futures dropped 12.25 cents to $10.32, and May MGEX spring wheat futures jumped 36 cents to $10.94.
USDA expects all-wheat acres to rise 1% from a year ago to 47.4 million acres in 2022. That includes 34.2 million acres of winter wheat acres (up 2% from 2021) and another 11.2 million acres of spring wheat (down 2% from 2021). Durum acres are expected to jump 17% from a year ago to 1.92 million acres.
Wheat quarterly stocks trended from 1.390 billion bushels in December down to 1.025 billion bushels in March. Unlike corn and soybean stocks, that total was moderately lower than year-ago results of 1.311 million bushels. It was also lower than the average trade guess of 1.045 billion bushels.
Old and new crop wheat sales reached a combined 6.5 million bushels last week. That was below the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 7.3 million and 29.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately behind last year’s pace, with 569.4 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments were mostly steady after drifting 5% lower week-over-week but inching 2% above the prior four-week average to 12.8 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 4.2 million bushels.
Algeria is believed to have purchased as much as 22 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed yesterday. Algeria does not release the results of its tenders, but European traders often offer their assessment of the deals. The grain is for shipment in May or June.
Saudi Arabia issued an import tender to buy 13 million bushels of wheat from optional origins. The grain is for shipment between September and November.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 79,477 CBOT contracts, moving moderately higher than Wednesday’s final count of 63,790.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
770
732.5
748.75
9.5
22-Jul
753
714.75
733
11.5
Soybeans
22-May
1680
1613.5
1618.25
-46.75
22-Jul
1657.25
1594.25
1598
-44.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
471.9
457.5
459.4
-7
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
70.85
68.44
68.64
-2.15
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1075
1003.5
1006
-19.25
22-Jul
1068.75
1000
1002
-21.25
KC Wheat
22-May
1089.25
1028.25
1029.75
-12.5
22-Jul
1088.25
1028.75
1029.75
-14
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1116.25
1055.25
1079.5
36
22-Jul
1115
1054
1076.75
33.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140.375
139.25
139.45
-0.725
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
163.675
160.9
161.1
-2.575
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
120.325
113.1
113.375
-3.625
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
107.8
99.66
100.87
-6.95
Diesel
22-Apr
3.799
3.6178
3.6726
-0.1359
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.2591
3.18
3.1867
-0.1383
Natural Gas
22-Jun
5.887
5.516
5.697
0.039
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
98.415
97.76
98.34
0.465
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1951.9
1921.5
1943.1
9.6
Copper
22-Apr
4.7445
4.701
4.73
-0.0095
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 03/25)
DAP Tampa-index
1,017.5
0
DAP-New Orleans
1,102.3
19.29
Urea-New Orleans
992.1
8.82
Urea-Middle East
1,130.0
10
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
686.2
24.8
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Afternoon report: USDA’s Prospective Plantings report stirs up grain prices.
