Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all make solid gains on Tuesday.
Grain prices found bullish support today, thanks to a variety of reasons, including worries about possible planting delays for corn, poor crop quality for wheat, concern from the ongoing war in Ukraine and spillover support from red-hot energy prices. Corn firmed around 1.5% higher, with soybeans rising 1.25%. Wheat gains were variable, ranging between 1% and 2% today.
More rain and snow is coming to the central U.S. later this week, with the highest amounts likely along the Mississippi River corridor between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts drier-than-normal conditions for part of the Central Plains between April 19 and April 25, with seasonally cool weather likely for the eastern half of the country.
On Wall St., the Dow gave up morning gains to fall 59 points in afternoon trading to 34,249. Newly available inflation data was high but not quite as high as some analysts expected. Energy futures saw substantial gains, anchored by crude oil jumping nearly 7% higher to $100 per barrel on production restraints in Russia. Diesel rose more than 6% higher, with gasoline up 5.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat (+12,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-1,000), soybeans (-14,500), soymeal (-4,500) and soyoil (-2,500).
NOTE: Keeping up with crop conditions and development across the country can be challenging as planting season nears, but Farm Futures is here to help. Our Feedback from the Field series is back for another year to help farmers across the country share their views on the 2022 growing season. Click here to find out how to participate – we’d love to hear from you!
Corn
Corn prices made solid inroads on a round of technical buying partly spurred by worries over possible planting delays in the Midwest this spring, drawing additional support from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is slowing exports and putting many fields at risk of not getting planted and/or harvested this season. May futures added 10.25 cents to $7.7475, with July futures up 12.25 cents to $7.71.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. on Tuesday, moving as much as 8 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and as much as 5 cents lower at an Ohio elevator today.
USDA’s latest crop progress report, out Monday afternoon, showed that just 2% of the 2022 corn crop has been planted as of April 10. That’s unchanged from a week ago and down from 2021’s pace of 4% and the prior five-year average of 3%. Southern states Texas (63%) and North Carolina (17%) have led the charge so far, as expected.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, 2021/22 EU corn imports are now trending slightly above last year’s pace after reaching 496.4 million bushels through April 10.
South Korea purchased 8.1 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is comprised of three consignments for delivery starting in mid-July.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 339,229 contracts, which was slightly less than Monday’s final count of 344,100.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed a broad range of other commodities higher on Tuesday, closing with gains of 1% to 1.25%. Questions about South American production potential continues to lend additional support. Soymeal and soyoil futures were also firm today. May futures rose 16.75 cents to $16.72, with July futures up 20.5 cents to $16.6125.
Soybean basis bids tilted 10 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and 5 cents higher at a Nebraska processor while holding steady across other Midwestern locations on Tuesday.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 398.7 million bushels through April 10, which is still slightly behind last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also slightly down year-over-year, with 12.74 million metric tons.
The trucker strike in Argentina has entered its second day as workers attempt to negotiate higher freight rates to combat rampant inflation. Around 85% of the country’s grain travels from fields to ports via trucks. Argentina is among the world’s top exporters of corn, soybeans and soymeal.
What strategies and tools work best when trying to sell grain in a volatile market? Kent Stutzman with Advance Trading says now is a great time to start thinking more about options. “If grain was sold this past harvest and call options were purchased, you are still in the market and gaining as the market rallies,” he says. “Had the market fallen instead, the sales at harvest would have looked very good. Regardless of the direction the market went, your marketing plan would have been in good shape.” Stutzman offers up additional advice in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 204,202 contracts, sliding slightly below Monday’s final count of 212,956.
Wheat
Wheat prices trended significantly higher after USDA reported that more than a third (36%) of this year’s winter wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition. Worries about Ukrainian production and export potential still looms large as well. May Chicago SRW futures climbed 21.25 cents to $11.0250, May Kansas City HRW futures rose 18.75 cents to $11.6025, and May MGEX spring wheat futures added 11 cents to $11.53.
According to the latest crop progress report from USDA, only 32% of the 2021/22 winter wheat crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, although that was a two-point improvement from a week ago. Another 32% is rated fair, with the remaining 36% rated poor or very poor. Physiologically, 5% of the crop is headed, versus the prior five-year average of 6%.
Spring wheat plantings are occurring slower than expected, with 6% in the ground through April 10. That’s four points behind 2021’s pace but slightly ahead of the prior five-year average (5%).
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 758 million bushels through April 10, which is slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU barley exports are also tracking slightly lower year-over-year, with 282 million bushels during the same period.
Australian wheat farmers re-wrote the record books after exporting an unprecedented 102.5 million bushels in February. The country’s top buyers includes several Asian nations such as Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, China and the Philippines.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 4.2 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 54% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in June.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 117,840 CBOT contracts, shifting 14% below Monday’s final count of 136,943.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
779
765
776.25
10.25
22-Jul
773.5
759.5
772.5
12.25
Soybeans
22-May
1682.75
1657
1670.25
16.75
22-Jul
1669
1642.5
1660.5
20.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
462.7
454.8
457.7
4.1
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
74.34
72.9
74.02
1.1
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1117.5
1075
1103.75
21.25
22-Jul
1125
1082.25
1112.5
21.75
KC Wheat
22-May
1176
1134
1162.25
18.75
22-Jul
1179.5
1138
1166.75
19
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1161
1132.25
1156.25
11
22-Jul
1160
1129.75
1156
12
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140.225
138.7
140
1.475
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
161.575
158.75
161.2
1.3
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
112.8
109.8
112.25
3.25
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
101.35
94.84
100.5
6.21
Diesel
22-May
3.4761
3.2798
3.4625
0.1948
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.1716
3.0093
3.156
0.1529
Natural Gas
22-Jun
7.025
6.68
6.723
0
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
100.335
99.74
100.305
0.381
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1979.2
1951
1967.1
22.8
Copper
22-Apr
4.706
4.6645
4.706
0.0775
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/01)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
222
DAP-New Orleans
1,085.8
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
1,002.0
9.92
Urea-Middle East
1,130.0
0
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
689.0
2.76
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
