Morning report: Wheat rises on turbulent growing conditions and a heat wave in India. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn up 2-4 cents
Soybeans up 1-3 cents; Soymeal up $1.90/ton; Soyoil down $1.00/lb
Chicago wheat up 7-8 cents; Kansas City wheat up 12-13 cents; Minneapolis wheat mixed
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
Corn prices rose $0.02-$0.04/bushel this morning on continued planting delays and another week of cool and wet weather across the Corn Belt this week.
In the Black Sea, Ukraine formally closed four of its port facilities on the Black Sea and Azov Sea. Russian forces have recently captured ports at Mariupol, Berdiansk and Skadovsk in the Azov Sea and the Kherson port in the Black Sea.
These are not significant loading facilities for Ukraine’s corn exports, so the news did not significantly alter grain pricing yesterday. But it solidifies Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of taking Ukraine’s Black Sea access which the country relies on heavily to fuel its economy.
“Russia does not let ships come in or go out, it is controlling the Black Sea,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a televised interview yesterday. “Russia wants to completely block our country’s economy.”
Russia’s ultimate goal is to capture the Ukrainian Black Sea port city of Odessa. Most of Ukraine’s corn exports flow through Odessa, so watch for more corn market fluctuations as Russian troops advance closer to the region.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn planting progress advance over the past week, just not at the rate of historical paces. Through the week ending May 1, 14% of anticipated 2022 corn crop acres had been planted, up 7% from the previous week’s progress.
Cool and wet weather continued to keep growers across the Midwest out of fields last week, though growers in the Plains took advantage of warmer soil temperatures and despite dry soil moisture levels were still able to get the 2022 corn planting season off to a faster start than Midwestern corn growers.
The five-year average for this time of year is 33% complete for corn planting. Last year, growers were 42% finished with planting, so the early season planting delays continue to create bullish price forces in the corn futures market.
Though showers are likely to persist across the Heartland through the weekend, warm and dryer weather should pave the way for rapid corn planting progress next week. That sentiment could cap corn’s bullish run this morning.
Soybeans
Soybean prices were mixed to $0.01-$0.02/bushel higher this morning on planting delays outlined in yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA.
Soybean planting only progressed 5% from the previous week to 8% as of May 1, according to yesterday’s Crop Progress report. The five-year average for the same time period stands at 13% complete.
To be sure, it is still early in the growing season for markets to be overly worried about soybean planting progress. Markets currently seem more occupied with corn planting progress than soybean planting. But there are enough fundamental bullish forces at play in the soy market that this morning’s losses are likely to quickly reverse in the coming days.
Wheat
Wheat prices moved largely higher overnight in response to yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report, which found poor winter wheat conditions had largely stabilized over the past week and that planting delays continue to hinder spring wheat growers in the Northern Plains.
India has been on track for a sixth consecutive record wheat crop, which would extend its unprecedented export season following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine.
But a recent heat wave could end the run of bumper crops at five seasons instead of six. Unexpected warming trends in mid-March in India are likely to tank wheat yields this summer. Prior to the heat wave, India’s wheat crop this year was forecasted at a record high of 4.09 billion bushels.
Unofficial government estimates have pegged the crop falling to 3.86 billion bushels. “Loss of production of wheat, all India basis, more or less stands around 6%, on account of shrivelling of wheat grains around 20% due to terminal heat and heat waves,” an official note by the Indian government said.
The news threatens to narrow the lucrative export window that India has enjoyed after five straight bumper crops. India does not typically export its wheat supplies – a government fixed price typically keeps Indian wheat off global markets. But the Russian war in Ukraine sent global prices past the government-set price and opened up Indian wheat markets to the world over the past two months.
Winter wheat conditions stabilized at 27% good to excellent for the second consecutive week, according to yesterday’s Crop Progress report. The 2022 spring season for winter wheat continues to reside in the company of previous drought years 1996 and 1989.
Dry weather continues to hinder crop development, as heading paces as of May 1 had only risen to 23% – about 6% lower than the five-year average benchmark.
Spring wheat planting progress slipped further behind the five-year average this week as snowpack and excessive flooding in the Northern Plains have stalled planting progress in the country’s largest region for spring wheat production.
As of May 1, only 19% of anticipated 2022 spring wheat acres had been planted. While that figure was a 6% improvement on the prior week, much of the progress was made outside of North Dakota and Minnesota, where much of the crop is grown.
This still represents significant bullish pressure for the spring wheat complex, as the five-year historical average benchmark for this reporting period stands at 28% complete.
Weather
Beneficial rains in the Southern and Central Plains yesterday shifted into the Corn Belt in the night and will likely linger in the region through the rest of the day, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts.
Another rain system developing in the Central Rockies could push more showers into the Central and Southern Plains tomorrow. That system will shift east into the Corn Belt by Thursday afternoon. The combination of the two precipitation systems are likely to keep planters out of fields until the weekend.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Bryce Knorr previews next week’s WASDE reports, which will provide the first look at 2022/23 marketing year estimates.
The White House has earmarked $500 million from the most recent $33 billion aid package to Ukraine for U.S. farmers to increase access to farm loans and crop insurance incentives to farmers to help offset pain from the war in Ukraine.
Roger Wright shares the benefits of hedging with puts to avoid margin calls.
AgMarket.Net’s Betsy Jibben shares the latest on planting progress in Ukraine, where even though planting activity continues, growers face countless challenges including storage safety, fuel and finance availability, and access to export markets.
My first Feedback from the Field column of the season! Spoiler alert – little to no planting progress has been made in the Corn Belt and winter wheat is looking rough.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 5/3/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.18
8.125
8.1725
0.0425
0.52%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.095
7.9975
8.0625
0.0275
0.34%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.6275
7.545
7.5975
0.02
0.26%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.47
7.4075
7.4475
0.025
0.34%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.505
7.4475
7.485
0.025
0.34%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.515
7.465
7.4975
0.025
0.33%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.485
7.43
7.465
0.02
0.27%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.745
16.71
16.745
0.005
0.03%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.5475
16.38
16.455
0.0025
0.02%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.1075
15.9425
16.0175
0.0175
0.11%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.3775
15.2225
15.2775
-0.0075
-0.05%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.9975
14.835
14.895
-0.01
-0.07%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.015
14.8625
14.9
-0.03
-0.20%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.875
14.76
14.79
0
0.00%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.85
14.76
14.7625
-0.0225
-0.15%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.86
14.7825
14.7825
-0.01
-0.07%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
82.66
82.23
82.23
-0.47
-0.57%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
80.38
79.25
79.93
-0.16
-0.20%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
438.8
#N/A
442.9
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
435.3
428.5
432.9
2
0.46%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
428.3
422.4
426.3
2.6
0.61%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
418.3
413.4
415.9
1.8
0.43%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
407.5
403.3
406.1
2
0.49%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.1875
#N/A
10.435
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.65
10.475
10.5625
0.0075
0.07%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.67
10.505
10.5875
0.005
0.05%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.6675
10.5175
10.6025
0.0025
0.02%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.6775
10.535
10.5975
-0.01
-0.09%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
10.8675
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.0925
10.94
11.0375
0.0575
0.52%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.1275
10.98
11.0725
0.0575
0.52%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.165
11.0275
11.1075
0.06
0.54%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.13
11.01
11.13
0.0975
0.88%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
11.6325
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.75
11.635
11.67
-0.0075
-0.06%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.65
11.505
11.57
0.005
0.04%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.6075
11.475
11.475
-0.05
-0.43%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.57
11.57
11.57
0.095
0.83%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
103.7
103.415
103.53
-0.236
-0.23%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
105.8
103.32
103.96
-1.21
-1.15%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
104.06
101.73
102.38
-1.04
-1.01%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.265
4.1544
4.1853
-0.0196
-0.47%
JUL ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.8701
3.7694
3.7929
-0.0385
-1.00%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.5074
3.444
3.4652
-0.0449
-1.28%
JUL ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.4315
3.3673
3.391
-0.0381
-1.11%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
161.425
0
0.00%
AUG ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
174.075
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
135.2
0
0.00%
AU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
137.05
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
99.875
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
104.975
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.38
24.37
24.38
-0.01
-0.04%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.15
24.13
24.13
-0.1
-0.41%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.09
23.82
23.93
-0.31
-1.28%
