Morning report: Wheat prices rise as condition ratings in U.S. continue to struggle. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 8-12 cents
Soybeans down 11-17 cents; Soymeal down $9.20/ton; Soyoil down $0.78/lb
Chicago wheat up 4-5 cents; Kansas City wheat up 11-12 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 15-16 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is live! Some planting progress has been made on the fringes of the Corn Belt, but this week will likely see a massive race to plant 2022 corn acres. Want to see how your farm’s progress tacks up against other growers across the country?
Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Good morning! It was a magical weekend for sports fans. The Kentucky Derby featured its greatest upset since 1913. The WNBA kicked off an electrifying season! Formula One raced in Miami for the first time ever yesterday. My White Sox swept the Boston Red Sox (!!) in three games this weekend.
And last night was the season finale of Winning Time: the rise of the Lakers dynasty, which is the HBO show of the Los Angeles Lakers’ Showtime era. Everyone – I cannot recommend this show enough. There are so many big characters and so many brilliant story lines. Plus, a lot of great basketball. Claire Rothman (Lakers’ treasurer, VP, and my finance girl crush), Pat Riley, Jerry Buss, Jerry West, Paula Abdul, Magic, Bird, Kareem – it’s truly the best basketball story since The Last Dance.
Ball is life, sports fans. And that’s exactly the energy carrying over into farm country this week!
Corn
“It’s lights out and away we go” in the Heartland this week as growers across the country race faster than Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc did in the Miami Formula One race yesterday to get the 2022 corn crop planted. Corn prices fell $0.08-$0.12/bushel overnight on favorable planting forecasts in the Heartland over the next two weeks.
It’s no secret that the 2022 planting season has been off to a slow start in the U.S. this year thanks to cool and wet weather in the Corn Belt. Last week’s Crop Progress report from USDA saw only 14% of planting progress complete as of May 1, 19% behind the five-year average.
Planting progress this week will be crucial to yield calculations for the 2022 crop. While the research varies, a key benchmark for optimal yields relative to planting time is May 15 – next Sunday. If 68% of the nation’s corn crop is in the ground by that point, there is a high likelihood trendline yields will be realized for the 2022 growing season.
But if planting progress lags this week, then yield downgrades could begin to pile up for the season. I had my first Feedback from the Field response from a Minnesota farmer late last week that their corn acreage would be shifting to beans this season because the planting window was narrowing so rapidly.
This leads me to believe we may see some bullish price action for corn in the June 30 acreage report, which could see some 2022 corn acres shifting into soybeans. And it’s not like corn acres had a lot of room to give up acreage this year, with USDA only forecasting 89.5 million acres (-4% from 2021) of corn expected to be planted this spring amid high input costs and competitive prices for other crops.
Planting progress – for both corn and soybeans – is looking even more favorable this week than last. While there are some scattered showers on the horizon for this week, next week is looking much warmer and dryer, which should allow for planting progress to accelerate at a rapid clip in the next couple weeks.
Soybeans
Soybean shipments to China rose in April but are down 0.8% through the first four months of the year compared to a year prior. This news, paired with favorable U.S. planting forecasts for the next couple weeks, sent soybean futures $0.11-$0.17/bushel lower during the overnight trading session.
China’s soybean imports rose in April after crop shortfalls and harvest delays in South America stalled shipping paces to the world’s largest oilseeds and grains buyer in March. China imported nearly 297 million bushels of soybeans during April 2022 – a 27% increase from March 2022 shipping paces.
Soybean growers are beginning to show more signs of life in the Feedback from the Field series, mirroring corn planting progress in that most of the early soybean planting activity lies outside the Corn Belt. Last week’s USDA Crop Progress report saw 8% of anticipated 2022 soybean acres planted as of May 1, down 5% from the five-year average.
Next week’s warm and dry forecast benefits soybean growers much more than corn in terms of operational success, as soybeans can likely withstand planting conditions at this point in the season more favorably than those of corn.
From a marketing perspective, the view may be less bullish. If corn acres have migrated to soybeans, it means that the current USDA forecast for 91.0 million acres could increase. Demand pressures have largely outpaced supply gains for the soybean complex so far this season, though a crop shortfall in South America thanks to a La Nina-induced drought also compounded the bullish price factors in the soybean market.
Time will be the ultimate factor in deciding how acreage shifts impact the soybean market this year. China has cooled its export purchases in recent weeks and is expected to see a domestic acreage expansion this spring if all goes according to the government’s plan. Global edible oil supplies are tight, especially in the wake of the Russian war in Ukraine, so the extra soybean acres could easily meet market demand this year, offsetting any potential bearish pressures from higher acreage.
Wheat
Wheat prices braced for another lackluster U.S. winter wheat forecast and further spring wheat planting delays expected in today’s Crop Progress report. Futures prices rose $0.07-$0.17/bushel on U.S. crop concerns, which compounded with ongoing worries about global supplies amid Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
Weather
Mostly clear skies are forecast for the Heartland today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. The Northern Plains will likely see a chance of showers this afternoon and evening. While the rain will help drought conditions in Western North Dakota, it will likely exacerbate flooding conditions in the Red River Valley and deter any planting progress for spring wheat growers in the region.
Clear skies will mostly continue to linger over the Heartland over the first half of this week. But areas of the Upper Midwest will need to watch forecasts closely, as chances for scattered showers over the next couple days could hinder planting progress.
Financials
Stocks are poised for big losses this morning as the dollar surges, economic outlooks for China deteriorate amid continued COVID lockdowns, and energy prices tumble. As the U.S. Federal Reserve (and other central banks around the world) raise interest rates to fight runaway inflation, “a wave of risk aversion is sweeping through global markets,” leaving “little room for a change of course in the Fed’s rate-increase and quantitative-tightening plans,” according to a Bloomberg report this morning.
It’s going to be a rough week in the equity markets, sports fans. The short-term outlook for stocks “is still messy and there may be more downside as markets worry about a significant economic slowdown or ‘hard landing’ and aggressive interest-rate hikes,” Diana Mousina, senior economist at AMP Investments, told Bloomberg.
Even though you may be busy planting, don’t sleep on those grain sales this week. Because those 401(k)’s certainly aren’t going to be the breadwinner this week.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com
Naomi Blohm expects markets to go for a “fierce, fast, and ferocious” ride following next week’s WASDE reports.
Ashley Arrington explains how higher farmland values impact your farm’s balance sheet.
Policy editor Jacqui Fatka explains how next year’s Farm Bill could be different from the one currently in place.
Will USDA reports continue the bearish price run for grains? Jim McCormick thinks so and weighs the odds in a recent Ag Marketing IQ column.
Advance Trading’s Luke Williams has recommendations for farmers on locking in profitable grain prices without even making a sale.
Water Street Solutions CEO Darren Frye reminds farmers that practicing leadership skills can help to make them better decision makers. Frye offers growers tips for practicing financial, business leadership, and marketing skills so they can confidently make decisions when the time comes.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 5/9/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.9225
7.82
7.8475
-0.075
-0.95%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.85
7.7125
7.77
-0.0775
-0.99%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4125
7.2775
7.3225
-0.0975
-1.31%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.195
7.0675
7.1075
-0.1
-1.39%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.2275
7.105
7.145
-0.1
-1.38%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.2325
7.12
7.145
-0.105
-1.45%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.18
7.08
7.1075
-0.0975
-1.35%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.525
16.4225
16.4225
-0.1325
-0.80%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.26
16.0525
16.0925
-0.1275
-0.79%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.725
15.5375
15.5775
-0.1325
-0.84%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.045
14.885
14.905
-0.1375
-0.91%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.7225
14.5575
14.5825
-0.125
-0.85%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.7475
14.59
14.615
-0.1225
-0.83%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6175
14.4825
14.52
-0.0975
-0.67%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6
14.48
14.52
-0.09
-0.62%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.59
14.5
14.5225
-0.0875
-0.60%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
87.1
#N/A
88.4
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
81.2
80.15
80.47
-0.43
-0.53%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
423.1
414.2
414.2
-9.2
-2.17%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
415.1
408.3
408.9
-4.7
-1.14%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408.7
403.2
403.8
-3.4
-0.83%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
402.6
397.4
397.8
-3.2
-0.80%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
395.7
391
391.3
-3.5
-0.89%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
10.97
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.35
11.155
11.1825
0.0975
0.88%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.35
11.165
11.1825
0.085
0.77%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.3625
11.19
11.205
0.0825
0.74%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.3375
11.1825
11.19
0.0625
0.56%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.36
#N/A
11.5925
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
12
11.8525
11.88
0.175
1.50%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
12.03
11.865
11.9125
0.175
1.49%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
12.05
11.8825
11.9375
0.16
1.36%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.9425
11.8775
11.8775
0.135
1.15%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
12.045
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.3475
12.175
12.25
0.1625
1.34%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.3125
12.13
12.225
0.1625
1.35%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.2725
12.1225
12.185
0.155
1.29%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.18
12.15
12.1625
0.1625
1.35%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
104.21
103.69
103.8
0.106
0.10%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
110.49
106.36
106.43
-3.34
-3.04%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
109
104.96
105.01
-3.32
-3.06%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.0043
3.838
3.8497
-0.1046
-2.65%
JUL ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.8303
3.6821
3.6924
-0.0964
-2.54%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.8312
3.6931
3.711
-0.048
-1.28%
JUL ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.7036
3.5888
3.6041
-0.0569
-1.55%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
159.55
0
0.00%
AUG ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
174.7
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
132.75
0
0.00%
AU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
135.35
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
102.2
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
104.1
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.95
#N/A
25.01
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.5
24.39
24.39
-0.07
-0.29%
JUL ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24
#N/A
24.1
0
0.00%
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