Morning report: Even with clear forecasts coming in the next week, farmers may continue dodging showers ahead of critical planting windows. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn up 2-5 cents
Soybeans up 5-12 cents; Soymeal up $3.80/ton; Soyoil up $0.34/lb
Chicago wheat up 5-6 cents; Kansas City wheat up 5-6 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 8-9 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is live! Some planting progress has been made on the fringes of the Corn Belt, but this week will likely see a massive race to plant 2022 corn acres. Want to see how your farm’s progress tacks up against other growers across the country?
Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
Wet forecasts over the next couple days in the Upper Midwest helped corn claw back some gains overnight. Futures traded $0.03-$0.05/bushel higher overnight as rain systems move into the Great Lakes region and more showers are expected in the Northern Plains in the coming days.
France, traditionally the European Union’s largest wheat producer, will grow fewer corn acres in 2022 and likely plant more sunflowers. As corn acreage prospects in the U.S. potentially shrink due to planting delays this spring, it is just further bullish price prospects for the global corn market as it fights for market share against the edible oils complex.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA saw 22% of anticipated 2022 U.S. corn acres planted as of May 8, up 8% from the previous week, but a staggering 28% behind the five-year average benchmark for the same reporting period.
The total came in on the lower end of pre-report analyst expectations, which ranged between 18%-33% complete with an average guess of 25%. In short, growers were not able to make near as much planting progress last week as the markets expected (or were perhaps too overly optimistic in their expectations).
While the timeline for “windows of opportunity” for planting for maximum yields varies across the country, mid-May is largely viewed as the ideal deadline to have corn in the ground to hit optimum yields for the year. Cool and wet weather has largely delayed planting progress this year, though clear and warm weather over the next couple weeks could help to accelerate slow planting paces.
Market watchers are increasingly eager to throw the baby out with the bathwater when it comes to yields correlated with these planting delays. But I encourage farmers to not lose their cool just yet.
There are a multitude of other factors that affect final yield counts throughout the growing season, so remember that it is not solely the planting date that dictates yield, but rather a multitude of compounding factors. “A good share of the variability in yields depends on what happens after planting,” Bob Nielsen, an agronomist at Purdue University, points out.
“The ABSOLUTE yield response to delayed planting is relative to the maximum possible yield in a given year. Consequently, it is possible for early-planted corn in one year to yield more than, less than, or equal to later-planted corn in another year depending on the exact combination of yield influencing factors for each year.”
Prepare for a wild week of planting progress, sports fans. Forecasts are looking spotty through mid-week, but extended forecasts through next week are much drier and clearer which will allow planting to continue at a steady pace.
Only about 5% of this year’s corn crop has emerged from the ground so far, reflecting planting delays and dry soils in the Plains. The five-year average benchmark for the same reporting period stands at 15%, according to yesterday’s Crop Progress report.
Soybeans
Soybean futures rose $0.05-$0.12/bushel overnight on planting delays in the U.S. Some bargain buying was also at play after July 2022 soybean contracts fell yesterday to the lowest price levels since early April ($15.78/bushel). Prices were within a penny or two of striking distance of the $16/bushel benchmark at last glance.
Soybean planting progress came in even further behind analyst estimates than corn in yesterday’s Crop Progress report. Through the week ending May 8, 12% of anticipated 2022 soybean crops were planted. It was only a 4% increase from the previous week, whereas market watchers were expecting an 8% rise on the week as some growers were able to start planting in between rain showers over the Corn Belt last week.
The five-year average for the same reporting period stands at 24%. Again, markets likely overestimated planting speeds amid scattered rain showers across the Midwest last week. But forecasts over the next two weeks are trending warm and dry, which should allow for rapid planting progress through the rest of the week.
Wheat
Wheat prices edged $0.05-$0.09/bushel higher at last glance this morning as global supply concerns offset weekly condition rating improvements for U.S. winter wheat crops and a rising dollar. Spring wheat planting delays – and potential yield shortfalls – played a significant role in keeping wheat prices in the green this morning.
France’s wheat crop has been hit by a dry spell. Up to this point, the crop has been in near-perfect condition so the recent drought is triggering concerns of yield downgrades. “Due to the absence of rain and particularly dry conditions, we know now that there will be an impact – still to be determined – on cereal production,” a ministry official told Reuters.
A few weeks ago, France’s soft wheat crop was rated at 91% good to excellent condition. But precipitation through the winter and early spring has fallen at below average volumes. Markets will be especially sensitive to French rain forecasts over the next two weeks as it is believed that the biggest chance for yield damage will occur during this period.
France is the European Union’s largest wheat producer. The E.U. likely topped Russia as the world’s largest wheat exporter this year after Russian crop shortfalls due to dry weather last summer. The E.U. is also expecting to make up some of the exporting volumes lost by Russian banking sanctions and Ukrainian port closures following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.
Winter wheat heading progress continues to trail behind the five-year average, coming in at 33% complete as of May 8. That figure rose 10% from the previous week, but still stands 7% behind the five-year average as dry weather hinders crop development in the Plains.
Cross-country rains last week benefited wheat conditions on the Plains, which rose 2% on the week to 29% good to excellent after resting at 27% for the two weeks prior to the latest Crop Progress report. The reading was slightly more optimistic than pre-report estimates, which had pegged that figure at 28% good to excellent.
But it still remains one of the most stressed winter wheat crops on record, jockeying with 1989 and 1996 as one of the poorest condition ratings in recent memory.
“An improvement in U.S. weather is going to take out the weather risk premium which has been built into the market,” a Singapore-based trader told Reuters overnight. “But we think, it might be too early to sell down the market just yet.”
Spring wheat planting fell further behind historical paces as last week’s progress was lower than analysts had been expecting leading up to yesterday’s Crop Progress report. Through the week ending May 8, 27% of anticipated 2022 U.S. spring wheat acres had been planted, 1% lower than pre-report guesses and a staggering 20% lower than the five-year benchmark for the same week.
Delays in Minnesota and North Dakota continue to hold back national spring wheat planting progress. Cool temperatures, late season snowfall, and excessive flooding in the Red River Valley continue to be a burden for growers looking to keep moving forward with 2022 planting activities.
After last year’s drought-induced spring wheat shortfall and a potential winter wheat yield shortfall this year in the Plains, growers could expect prices to remain high, especially amid tightening global supply outlooks following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine earlier this spring.
Weather
Scattered showers are possible today in the Great Lakes region, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Though skies are likely to remain clear enough to continue planting progress elsewhere in the Heartland, Wisconsin, Michigan and Northern Illinois could see up to a half inch of rain over the next 24 hours that could slow planting progress in the region.
More showers are expected in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow and Thursday before skies clear and allow planting progress to continue full throttle next week.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com
Bryce Knorr weighs the odds of $11/bushel corn after looking at options prices ahead of the mid-May benchmark for corn planting progress.
Davon Cook helps growers navigate partnership dynamics where the behavior of one partner may be extreme enough to not be overlooked.
For farmers with decision fatigue, Darren Frye recommends evaluating if a decision aligns with an operation’s goals and values, if it makes financial sense to the farm, and evaluating the potential benefits before going forward with that decision.
Naomi Blohm expects markets to go for a “fierce, fast, and ferocious” ride following next week’s WASDE reports.
Ashley Arrington explains how higher farmland values impact your farm’s balance sheet.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 5/10/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.9075
7.85
7.89
0.045
0.57%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.7875
7.715
7.755
0.035
0.45%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.345
7.275
7.32
0.03
0.41%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.16
7.0825
7.1425
0.035
0.49%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.1975
7.12
7.1825
0.035
0.49%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.2
7.125
7.1875
0.035
0.49%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.15
7.075
7.145
0.0375
0.53%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.26
16.26
16.26
0.05
0.31%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.05
15.805
15.9725
0.12
0.76%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.565
15.3325
15.51
0.135
0.88%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.94
14.7275
14.8825
0.1075
0.73%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6175
14.4
14.5525
0.085
0.59%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.645
14.435
14.5875
0.085
0.59%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5425
14.355
14.49
0.08
0.56%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5325
14.35
14.4875
0.08
0.56%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5325
14.3525
14.455
0.0475
0.33%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
86.03
#N/A
87.18
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
80.59
79.26
79.83
0.09
0.11%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
414.7
408
414.5
3.4
0.83%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
407.8
402
407.2
4.4
1.09%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
401.2
396.9
401.1
3.6
0.91%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
396.7
392.5
396.6
3.3
0.84%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
392.1
387.2
392.1
2.7
0.69%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.985
10.9675
10.985
0.1525
1.41%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.07
10.83
10.975
0.0475
0.43%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.1
10.8675
11.005
0.05
0.46%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.145
10.9175
11.06
0.055
0.50%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.1525
10.9425
11.0875
0.06
0.54%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
11.5325
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.79
11.5675
11.68
0.0375
0.32%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.815
11.605
11.725
0.05
0.43%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.8625
11.6475
11.7675
0.0475
0.41%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.835
11.64
11.7925
0.0925
0.79%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
11.9975
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.26
12.06
12.19
0.1225
1.02%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.24
12.0375
12.1725
0.125
1.04%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.2
12.02
12.125
0.11
0.92%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
12.145
11.995
12.1075
0.12
1.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
103.91
103.53
103.695
0.006
0.01%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
104.16
100.44
102.45
-0.64
-0.62%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
102.78
99.09
101.1
-0.67
-0.66%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.8989
3.7637
3.8448
0.0099
0.26%
JUL ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6856
3.5786
3.6507
-0.0032
-0.09%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.6636
3.5605
3.6056
-0.0363
-1.00%
JUL ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.5516
3.45
3.4993
-0.0303
-0.86%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
159.8
0
0.00%
AUG ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
174.225
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
133.55
0
0.00%
AU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
135.375
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
100.875
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
101.3
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.7
24.66
24.67
-0.1
-0.40%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
23.72
23.69
23.69
-0.09
-0.38%
JUL ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
23.46
23.45
23.45
-0.06
-0.26%
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