Afternoon report: Soybean prices also in the red Wednesday, with corn prices narrowly mixed
Grain prices were mixed but mostly lower in midweek trading. Nearby corn contracts were the lone bright spot, firming 0.75% as traders assessed the latest weather forecasts, which feature plenty of hot, dry conditions for the Midwest. In contrast, technical selling pushed soybeans and wheat lower again today. Soybean losses were minimal, at around 0.25%, while some wheat contracts lost nearly 1% today.
Some additional rains will fall across parts of the eastern Corn Belt between Thursday and Sunday, but very few areas will gather more than 0.25″ through the end of this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts abundant hot, dry weather for the central U.S. between June 22 and June 28.
On Wall St., the Dow inched 22 points higher in afternoon trading to 30,387 as investors mulled the latest moves from the Federal Reserve. As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in an attempt to slow inflation. Energy futures showed mixed results again today. Crude oil fell more than 3.5% to land just above $115 per barrel. Gasoline was also down 2.5%, while diesel jumped 3.25% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were once again net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-2,000), soybeans (-4,000), soymeal (-2,500), soyoil (-3,500) and CBOT wheat (-4,500).
Corn
Corn prices were lightly mixed after some uneven technical maneuvering today. July futures shook off modest overnight losses to finish the session up 6.25 cents to $7.7450, while September futures eased half a penny lower to $7.29.
Corn basis bids were steady to slightly weak after sliding 2 to 3 cents lower across four Midwestern locations on Tuesday.
The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today, showed ethanol production come in at a daily average of 1.060 million barrels for the week ending June 10, rising modestly higher week-over-week and clearing the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark for the fourth consecutive week.
Ahead of the next USDA export report, out Thursday morning and covering the week through June 9, analysts expect to see corn sales come in between 5.9 million and 35.4 million bushels.
Analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness raised its estimates for 2022 corn plantings by 455,000 acres, with a new total of 90.965 million acres. That’s also well above USDA’s March 31 planting intentions estimate of 89.490 million acres. Assuming an average of yield of 179.5 bushels per acre, that would bring a total production of 14.930 billion bushels this season.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have moved moderately above last year’s pace, reaching 596.8 million bushels through June 12. Domestic ethanol stocks eased another 2% lower last week.
Ukraine’s grain exports are trending about 40% lower year-over-year during the first half of June, according to the latest data from the country’s agriculture ministry. That includes corn exports totaling 21.8 million bushels and only 1.5 million bushels of wheat exports as Ukraine continues to deal with the ongoing Russian invasion.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 228,125 contracts, tracking moderately lower than Tuesday’s final count of 265,981.
Soybeans
Soybean prices trended back into the red for the third time this week, although losses were largely held in check by record-breaking temperatures scorching parts of the central U.S. this week, with more warmer-than-normal temperatures likely again next week. July futures dropped 5 cents to $16.9350, with August futures down 2.75 cents to $16.1375.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak after falling 5 to 12 cents lower across four Midwestern locations on Wednesday.
Private exporters reported to USDA the cancellation of 3.7 million bushels of soybeans that had originally been set for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) confirmed the largest May soybean crush on record, although it was slightly lower than trade estimates, with a total volume of 171.077 million bushels. Soyoil stocks fell 2.2% to 1.774 billion pounds at the end of May, which is the lowest monthly total since last September.
IHS Market Agribusiness lowered its estimates for 2022 soybean plantings by 280,000 acres from a month ago, with a new projection of 88.735 million acres. Assuming average yields of 52.0 bushels per acre, that would put 2022 production at 4.570 billion bushels.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 7.3 million and 40.4 million bushels for the week ending June 9. Analysts also anticipate soymeal sales ranging between 100,000 and 350,000 metric tons, plus up to 40,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Farmers participating in our Feedback from the Field series report mixed but mostly optimistic crop conditions so far. Click here to read the latest round of farmer anecdotes and learn how you can offer up your own observations.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 512.2 million bushels through June 12, which is trending slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also down year-over-year, reaching 15.62 million metric tons through the same period.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 185,067 contracts, shifting slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 195,183.
Wheat
Wheat prices incurred small to moderate losses after a choppy session Wednesday. As harvest progresses across the Plains, that could apply additional downward pressure moving forward. July Chicago SRW futures eased 0.5 cents to $10.4975, July Kansas City HRW futures dropped 9.25 cents to $11.33, and July MGEX spring wheat futures fell 11 cents to $11.9750.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 7.3 million and 22.0 million bushels for the week ending June 9.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 953.1 million bushels through June 12, which is slightly higher than year-ago totals so far. EU barley exports are running slightly below last year’s pace, with 314.6 million bushels.
Refinitiv Commodities Research reports that it expects 2022/23 Canadian wheat production to reach 1.139 billion bushels amid generally favorable conditions. Planted acres are expected to increase nearly 6% from last season.
Amid its ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine is set to lose $1.435 billion worth of unharvested winter crops across an estimated 5.93 million acres, according to its agriculture ministry. Total Ukrainian agricultural losses is estimated at nearly $4.3 billion from crop and livestock losses combined.
Japan received no offers in its simultaneous buy-and-sell auction that sought to buy 2.6 million bushels of feed wheat and 1.8 million bushels of feed barley that closed earlier today.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 77,204 CBOT contracts, which was slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 79,096.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Jul
779.75
762
774
6.25
22-Sep
736.25
722.25
729
-0.5
Soybeans
22-Jul
1705
1682.25
1693.75
-5
22-Sep
1559.75
1541
1546
-1.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Aug
406.9
397.9
404.5
4.3
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Aug
76.74
75.33
75.84
-0.59
Wheat $/bushel
22-Jul
1058.75
1036.5
1050
-0.5
22-Sep
1073.25
1051.5
1063.5
-1.75
KC Wheat
22-Jul
1145.25
1125.75
1133.25
-9.25
22-Sep
1152.25
1132.75
1140.25
-10.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Jul
1209.75
1192
1201.25
-11
22-Sep
1208.75
1191.75
1201.5
-10.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Jun
138
136.5
137.75
2.55
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
175.875
174.45
175.4
2.05
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Jul
104.9
102.1
104.075
0.525
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jul
119.61
114.6
116.19
-2.74
Diesel
22-Jul
4.607
4.3557
4.5442
0.1502
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Jul
4.041
3.8675
3.9
-0.0938
Natural Gas
22-Aug
7.681
7.205
7.361
0.181
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
105.565
104.555
104.845
-0.497
Gold $/ounce
22-Jul
1838.2
1805.6
1835.9
26.4
Copper
22-Jun
4.194
4.131
4.153
-0.0085
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 06/10)
DAP Tampa-index
1,105.0
-12.5
DAP-New Orleans
862.6
19.29
Urea-New Orleans
542.9
-63.38
Urea-Middle East
675.0
-24
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
620.6
-35.27
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