Afternoon report: Soybeans and wheat also firm in Thursday’s session
Scorching hot continues to be a prominent issue in the central U.S. this week and could stick around next week as well. Weather forecasts finally drew the eye of traders, who engaged in plenty of technical buying today. The result – corn prices jumped 1.75% higher, with soybeans up 1%. Wheat gains were variable but rose as much as 2.75% higher today.
Large portions of the central U.S. won’t see any additional rainfall between today and Sunday, although a few places could gather up to 0.25″ or more during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts plenty of hot, dry conditions for the Corn Belt between June 23 and June 29, although some seasonally wet weather could creep back into portions of the Northern Plains.
On Wall St., the Dow tumbled 823 points lower in afternoon trading to 29,844, falling below the 30,000-point benchmark since January 2021. Investors are pessimistic over the Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to enact the largest interest rate hike since the mid-1990s. Energy futures moved higher, with crude oil up 2% to move back above $117 per barrel. Gasoline tracked 1.5% higher, with diesel up around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened significantly.
On Wednesday commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+3,500) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-2,000), soyoil (-1,000) and CBOT wheat (-1,000). Funds were roughly even trading corn contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices grabbed double-digit gains after rising steadily throughout Thursday’s session amid a round of weather-related technical buying. July futures rose 13.75 cents to $7.8775, with September futures up 13 cents to $7.42.
Corn basis bids showed some variability on Thursday after rising as much as 13 cents higher at an Iowa processor while falling as much as 10 cents at an Indiana ethanol plant today.
Old crop corn sales reached 5.5 million bushels in the week ending June 9. New crop sales chipped in another 5.5 million bushels, bringing the total to 11.0 million bushels. Analysts were generally expecting to see stronger totals, offering a range of guesses between 5.9 million and 35.4 million bushels prior to the report’s release. Cumulative sales for the 2021/22 marketing year are more than 200 million bushels below last year’s pace, with 1.932 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments slid 10% below the prior four-week average, with 54.6 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 18.1 million bushels.
The EPA announced that the United States generated 1.23 billion ethanol blending credits in May, up from April’s tally of 1.14 billion. Biodiesel blending credits also rose modestly higher, trending from 499 million in April up to 513 million in May.
The U.S. Supreme Court announced that it will not hear arguments to dismiss a case involving Bayer’s Roundup herbicide. What does that mean for the future of this popular crop chemical? Ag lawyer Gary Baise took a closer look at the implications – click here to learn more.
At the heart of any successful farming operation is the ability to properly assess risks and opportunities to your advantage. That’s obviously much easier said than done, but what can you do to make the most of an unusual set of circumstances this season? Dr. David Kohl serves up some ideas in his latest Road Warrior blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 278,224 contracts, moving moderately above Wednesday’s final count of 228,125.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed corn prices higher today as the threat of overly hot conditions across the Midwest incited some technical buying that pushed nearby contracts back above the $17-per-bushel benchmark. July futures rose 17.25 cents to $17.11, with August futures up 18.5 cents to $16.3225.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak again on Thursday after sliding 2 to 10 cents lower across four Midwestern locations today.
Soybean exports found 11.7 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 15.0 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 26.7 million bushels. That was toward the higher end of trade guesses, which ranged between 7.3 million and 40.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still moderately below last year’s pace, with 1.866 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments climbed 23% above the prior four-week average to 26.0 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 6.8 million bushels.
Farmers participating in our Feedback from the Field series report mixed but mostly optimistic crop conditions so far. Click here to read the latest round of farmer anecdotes and learn how you can offer up your own observations.
“Sometimes it seems like the theme of this crop marketing year for soybeans has been, and continues to be, ‘Hurry up and wait,'” according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. But two upcoming factors are looming that could move the market one way or the other – the June 30 USDA acreage report and weather forecasts. Blohm offers additional explanation and analysis in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 136,784 contracts, falling moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 185,067.
Wheat
Wheat prices made solid inroads Thursday after a round of technical buying spurred by weather worries, spillover strength from corn and soybeans, and sharp losses in the value of the U.S. Dollar today. July Chicago SRW futures climbed 29.75 cents to $10.7975, July Kansas City HRW futures rose 17.5 cents to $11.5075, and July MGEX spring wheat futures added 7.25 cents to $12.0850.
Wheat sales reached 8.7 million bushels last week, falling to the very low end of analyst estimates, which came in between 7.3 million and 22.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the young 2022/23 marketing year are off to a slightly stronger start versus year-ago totals, with 21.4 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments 13.6 million bushels last week. Mexico topped all destinations last week, with 3.0 million bushels.
As expected, Japan has purchased 6.9 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 53% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in August.
Bangladesh cancelled its international tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels of wheat from optional origins that would have closed on June 22. No reason was given for the move.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 90,380 CBOT contracts, trending 17% higher than Wednesday’s final count of 77,204.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Jul
792
773
788.25
13.75
22-Sep
747.25
728.75
741.75
13
Soybeans
22-Jul
1715.5
1690.5
1709.5
17.25
22-Sep
1568.5
1543.5
1563
19
Soymeal $/ton
22-Aug
417.6
405.1
415.8
10
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Aug
76.42
74.16
74.68
-1.16
Wheat $/bushel
22-Jul
1084.75
1047
1078.25
29.75
22-Sep
1096.5
1060
1090.5
28.25
KC Wheat
22-Jul
1159.5
1127
1148.5
17.5
22-Sep
1166.75
1135
1155.75
17.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Jul
1218.25
1199
1209
7.25
22-Sep
1218.75
1200
1209.5
8.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Jun
138.1
137.25
137.75
0.2
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
174.9
172.85
173.175
-1.925
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Jul
106.625
103.5
106.05
1.725
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jul
118.08
112.31
117.77
2.46
Diesel
22-Jul
4.5817
4.4124
4.5733
0.0263
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Jul
3.9666
3.8036
3.9485
0.0543
Natural Gas
22-Aug
7.981
7.305
7.423
0.017
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
105.28
103.2
103.41
-1.525
Gold $/ounce
22-Jul
1851.3
1815.8
1846.7
31.4
Copper
22-Jun
4.176
4.052
4.1135
-0.054
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 06/10)
DAP Tampa-index
1,105.0
-12.5
DAP-New Orleans
862.6
19.29
Urea-New Orleans
542.9
-63.38
Urea-Middle East
675.0
-24
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
620.6
-35.27
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