Afternoon report: Corn and wheat prices mixed in Wednesday’s session.
Grain prices were mixed but mostly lower in midweek trading. The latest weather forecasts suggest enough timely rains will land on parched soybean fields and lift (or at least protect) yield potential, which trimmed prices by around 0.7% on Wednesday. Winter wheat prices also trended lower, losing as much as 1%.
More rains are coming to the eastern Corn Belt later this week, with some areas set to gather another 1.5 inches or more between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Parts of the Central Plains and most of Iowa will receive no measurable moisture during that time, in contrast. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry weather for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between August 10 and August 16, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for most of the central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 464 points in afternoon trading to 32,861 after a healthy dose of new durable goods orders and manufacturing data. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil fell another 3% this afternoon to $91 per barrel. Gasoline was also down more than 3.5%, while diesel firmed more than 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+3,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-7,500), soybeans (-6,000), soyoil (-5,000) and CBOT wheat (-7,000).
Corn
Corn prices were narrowly mixed amid some uneven technical maneuvering today as traders await fresh supply and demand fundamentals, including weather trends and an upcoming round of export data from USDA. September futures eased half a penny lower to $5.9075, with December futures picking up 1.25 cents to $5.9550.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Wednesday after tumbling 25 cents lower at an Illinois processor while firming 1 to 5 cents higher at three other Midwestern locations today.
Ethanol production rose to the highest level in more than a month after seeing daily production average 1.043 million barrels for the week ending July 29, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. Domestic stocks ticked fractionally higher last week.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analyst expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 3.9 million and 27.6 million bushels for the week ending July 28.
Turkey’s defense ministry reported that a ship carrying just over 1 million bushels of Ukrainian corn has passed inspection and will continue to its final destination of Lebanon. The grain was inspected in Istanbul, Turkey to ensure it only contained food-related items.
Taiwan purchased 2.2 million bushels of corn, likely sourced from South Africa, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between mid-October and early November.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 291,207 contracts, trending slightly above Tuesday’s final count of 284,319.
Soybeans
Soybean prices took a moderate hit on the prospect of some “just in time” rains expected across the central U.S. later this week, which triggered a round of technical selling on Wednesday. August futures dropped 10.75 cents to $15.5850, with September futures down 10 cents to $14.0575.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed after rising as much as 15 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal while falling as much as 20 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal on Wednesday.
Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 135,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Poland during thee 2022/23 marketing year, which begins October 1.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 3.7 million and 33.1 million bushels for the week ending July 28. Analysts also expect to see between 25,000 and 350,000 metric tons of soymeal sales, plus up to 30,000 MT of soyoil sales.
India more than doubled its soyoil imports between June and July after a governmental move to allow for duty-free sales. That led to record imports of 493,000 metric tons last month. Some estimates put total imports this marketing year at a record 4.5 MMT.
How accurate are USDA’s August yield forecasts versus the agency’s final estimates? Brian Basting, commodity research analyst for Advance Trading, looked at the numbers for both corn and soybeans stretching back to 1991. To find out what he discovered, be sure to read yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here for more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 127,923 contracts, spilling moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 159,597.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed today, with winter wheat prices down 0.6% to 1% and spring wheat prices firming 0.4% to 0.6%. September Chicago SRW futures fell 9.25 cents to $7.6650, September Kansas City HRW futures dropped 5.75 cents to $8.3650, and September MGEX spring wheat prices picked up 3.75 cents to $8.77.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see wheat sales ranging between 7.3 million and 20.2 million bushels for the week ending July 28.
Ukraine’s prime minister says its 2022 forecast for grain production should come in around 65 to 67 million metric tons, up from earlier estimates of 60 MMT. Harvest is marching stubbornly ahead, even in areas where active shelling has occurred.
Algeria purchased an estimated 26.5 million bushels of milling wheat in an international tender that closed yesterday. The bulk of the grain is expected to be sourced from France. Shipment could begin as early as late August, depending on source.
South Korea purchased 1.8 million bushels of milling wheat from the United States and another 1.8 million bushels from Australia. The U.S. grain is for shipment starting on September 16, with the Australian grain for shipment in December.
Tunisia purchased 4.6 million bushels of soft wheat and 2.3 million bushels of animal feed barley from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment starting in late August.
Jordan issued a new international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes August 9. The grain is for shipment in January and February.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 88,246 CBOT contracts, which was slightly lower than Tuesday’s final count of 90,219.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
cents/bu
22-Sep
597
583
591.5
-0.5
22-Dec
599.75
587.5
596.25
1.25
Soybeans
22-Sep
1431
1390
1403.75
-10
22-Dec
1406.25
1356
1369.75
-15
Soymeal $/ton
22-Sep
437.6
426.1
431.4
-2.3
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Sep
63.83
61.26
61.82
-0.46
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
790.25
752
763.75
-8.25
22-Dec
809.25
771.5
783.5
-7.75
KC Wheat
22-Sep
857.25
823.25
835.5
-5.75
22-Dec
866
831.25
843.75
-5.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
894
864.75
875.25
3.75
22-Dec
907.25
878
889
5.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Aug
138.3
136.925
137.85
1.275
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
183.225
180.925
182.875
1.425
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Oct
97.525
95.575
95.65
-0.575
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Sep
96.57
90.38
90.79
-3.63
Diesel
22-Aug
3.5055
3.3414
3.4083
0.0279
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Aug
3.1427
2.9001
2.9046
-0.1521
Natural Gas
22-Oct
8.46
7.557
8.303
0.605
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
106.7
105.855
106.37
0.266
Gold $/ounce
22-Sep
1774
1754.8
1760.2
-10.9
Copper
22-Aug
3.515
3.4715
3.4715
-0.053
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 07/29)
DAP Tampa-index
916.5
0
DAP-New Orleans
837.8
-1.65
Urea-New Orleans
581.5
22.05
Urea-Middle East
707.5
37.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
439.8
-8.27
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