Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all land in the red to start the week
Grain prices weakened during Monday’s session as harvest progress continues to replenish low corn and soybean stocks. That prompted a round of technical selling that trimmed corn prices by 0.4%, while soybeans sank more than 1.5% lower. Wheat losses were variable, mostly ranging between 0.5% and 1.25% today.
Bountiful rains will arrive in parts of the Midwest later this week, with a band stretching from southwest Arkansas to northeast Illinois likely to see at least 1.5″ or more fall between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the central U.S. between October 31 and November 6, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the Midwest and Plains next week.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the latest mini-rally was sustained after the Dow moved another 478 points higher in afternoon trading to 31,561on reports that some Federal Reserve officials are growing skittish about continuing an aggressive interest rate policy. Energy futures were mixed, meantime, with crude oil dropping 0.5% this afternoon to $84 per barrel. In contrast, diesel and gasoline each climbed around 3.0% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened fractionally.
On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+2,500), soymeal (+2,000) and soyoil (+4,500) contracts, and funds were roughly even when trading corn and CBOT wheat contracts.
Corn
Corn prices followed soybeans lower on seasonal harvest pressure, incurring losses of around 0.4% following a round of technical selling on Monday. December futures dropped 2.5 cents to $6.8175, with March futures down 2.75 cents to $6.8775.
Corn basis bids dropped 10 cents at an Illinois river while firming 2 to 5 cents at three other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Monday.
Corn export inspections for the week ending October 20 were fairly pedestrian, moving slightly higher week-over-week to 18.5 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade guesses, which ranged between 11.8 million and 25.6 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 9.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still moderately behind last year’s pace, with 148.3 million bushels.
Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn harvest moving from 45% a week earlier to 62% through Sunday. Individual trade guesses ranged between 58% and 66%. USDA won’t give additional quality ratings updates this season.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 185,072 contracts, firming slightly above Friday’s final count of 178,245.
Soybeans
Soybean prices slumped more than 1.5% lower as traders completely shrugged off a much better-than-expected round of export inspection data, maintaining their focus on seasonal harvest pressure instead. November and January futures each eroded 23 cents lower to close at $13.7250 and $13.8150, respectively.
Soybean basis bids improved 5 to 10 cents at two Midwestern processors and eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Monday.
Soybean export inspections far exceeded analyst expectations last week after jumping to 106.1 million bushels. Trade guesses were below that tally, ranging between 36.7 million and 73.5 million bushels. China accounted for the bulk of that total, with 80.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still running moderately behind last year’s pace, however, with 279.3 million bushels.
Ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show soybean harvest move from 63% a week ago to 77% through Sunday. Individual trade guesses ranged between 75% and 81%. As harvest is past the halfway mark, USDA will no longer give quality ratings updates.
Meantime, Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean plantings are well underway, moving from 24% a week ago up to 34%, per the latest estimates from AgRural. Some acres will need to be replanted in areas that have received excessive rains, according to AgRural.
Chinese soybean imports in September rose 12% year-over-year to 283.7 million bushels after low stockpiles prompted a flurry of fresh purchases. Even though September arrivals were a bit higher than is typical, overall year-over-year imports for the first nine months of 2022 are down 6.6%. China is by far the world’s No. 1 soybean buyer.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 226,183 contracts, trending slightly above Friday’s final count of 204,844.
Wheat
Wheat prices suffered a mild to moderate technical setback as high prices continue to leave U.S. grain uncompetitive for some overseas buyers. Spillover weakness from corn and soybeans generated additional headwinds today. December Chicago SRW futures dropped 11.25 cents to $8.3950, December Kansas City HRW futures fell 12 cents to $9.3625, and December MGEX spring wheat futures faded 4.5 cents to $9.57.
Wheat export inspections were disappointing last week, falling to 4.6 million bushels and dropping below the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels. Mexico topped all destinations, with 1.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are now slightly behind last year’s pace, with 348.8 million bushels.
Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show 2022/23 winter wheat plantings move from 69% a week ago up to 81% through Sunday. Individual trade guesses ranged between 78% and 85%.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry is accusing Russian inspections of causing delays. “We have reason to believe delays in Russia’s inspections of the grain initiative’s vessels are politically motivated,” it said in a statement. Ukraine is a significant exporter of wheat and corn, and the country heavily depends on shipping via its Black Sea ports.
Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that the country will export 165.3 million bushels of wheat in October, which would be a monthly increase of 9.8%, if realized. It would also be the highest monthly tally in over a year. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer reported it has purchased 20.4 million bushels of hard milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender that recently closed. The grain is for shipment in March and April.
Iraq extended its deadline for submissions in its international tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels of wheat from October 24 to October 30. The grain can be sourced from optional origins, with the exception of Russia. Officials reported earlier this month that its 2023 import needs could exceed 183 million bushels.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 61,016 CBOT contracts, sliding slightly below Friday’s final count of 63,198.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
686.5
677.25
681.5
-2.5
23-Mar
692.25
683.5
687.75
-2.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1393
1368.25
1372
-23
23-Jan
1402.75
1377.75
1381.25
-23
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
410.4
400.3
402.4
-8
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
69.73
68.08
69.16
0.2
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
856.5
833.5
838.75
-11.25
23-Mar
875.75
853.25
858.25
-11.25
KC Wheat
22-Dec
953.25
931.5
938
-12
23-Mar
951.75
930.5
937
-11.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
965.5
950
957.75
-4.5
23-Mar
970.25
957.25
965
-3.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
151.725
150.25
151.725
1.25
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
179.775
178.675
179.05
0.7
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
90.7
89.225
90.475
-0.05
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Nov
85.92
82.63
84.72
-0.33
Diesel
22-Nov
3.9683
3.8
3.941
0.1087
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.754
2.58
2.7455
0.0835
Natural Gas
22-Dec
5.844
5.345
5.784
0.312
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
112.465
111.335
111.905
-0.075
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1666.3
1643.6
1648.7
-2.3
Copper
22-Oct
3.493
3.493
3.493
-0.03
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/14)
DAP Tampa-index
695.0
-17.5
DAP-New Orleans
799.2
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
666.9
-8.27
Urea-Middle East
757.5
27.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
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