Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and winter wheat prices down in midweek trading
Grain prices were uneven on Wednesday after some mixed technical maneuvering commenced. Winter wheat prices saw the most upside, with most contracts up between 0.8% and 0.9% today, supported by some bargain buying amid a weakening U.S. Dollar. Corn and spring wheat prices eased slightly, while soybeans were narrowly mixed today.
Abundant rain will fall in Mid-South and Texas between Thursday and Sunday, but little to no rain is expected across much of the Midwest and Plains during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s newest 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally wet conditions for the central U.S. between November 2 and November 8, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the eastern half of the country.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow tested modest gains in afternoon trading, picking up 22 points to reach 31,859. The Nasdaq was in the red after disappointing earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet, however. Energy futures were mixed but mostly higher. Diesel had the hottest hand, jumping 5%, while crude oil firmed 3% this afternoon to $88 per barrel on strong demand. Nearby gasoline contracts were down 1.25% in contrast. The U.S. Dollar softened considerably.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+3,500), soybeans (+3,000), soymeal (+2,500) and soyoil (+1,000) contracts but were net sellers of CBOT wheat (-500).
Corn
Corn prices eased slightly lower after some net technical selling on Wednesday, but losses were mostly inconsequential as traders await a new round of export sales data, out Thursday morning. December futures eased 0.75 cents lower to $6.8550, with March futures down 1.25 cents to $6.91.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Wednesday after moving as much as 8 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and as much as 5 cents higher at a Nebraska processor today.
Ethanol production improved to a daily average of 1.033 million barrels in the week through October 21, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, released earlier today. That marks the second consecutive week that production stayed above the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark and is the highest weekly tally since late July.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 13.8 million and 42.3 million bushels for the week ending October 20.
Will corn prices be able to move back above the $7 per bushel benchmark after downward seasonal harvest pressure subsides? That is a question worth asking, according to Josh Green with Advance Trading. “The answer is yes, but there are no guarantees,” Green offers. To see how he arrived at that opinion, click here to read his analysis in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways added another 24,053 carloads last week. That brings cumulative totals for 2022 to 924,822 carloads, which is trending 4.4% below last year’s pace so far.
South African corn production in 2022 is expected to decline 6% below last year’s tally to 563.2 million bushels, per the latest estimates from the country’s Crop Estimates Committee. That amount is fairly evenly split between yellow corn (for livestock feed) and white corn (for human consumption).
Preliminary volume estimates were for 181,965 contracts, moving slightly ahead of Tuesday’s final count of 175,210.
Soybeans
Soybean prices failed to hold onto moderate overnight gains, which largely evaporated by the close on Wednesday. November futures eased half a penny lower to $13.8150, while January futures inched 0.75 cents higher to $13.93.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed on Wednesday after climbing as much as 15 cents higher at an Indiana processor while tumbling as much as 25 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal today.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 29.4 million and 68.0 million bushels for the week ending October 20. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 150,000 and 750,000 metric tons, plus up to 30,000 MT of soyoil sales last week.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural estimates that the country’s 2022/23 soybean crop is 34% planted as of late last week. That’s a bit behind the prior season’s pace of 38% but well above the historical average of 26%. The top production state of Mato Grosso is well above the historical average of 42%, with 67% of plantings now complete.
Egypt bought 14,000 metric tons of soyoil in an international tender that closed earlier today. Additional details involving source and shipment were not immediately available.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 258,904 contracts, trending moderately above Tuesday’s final count of 208,633.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed amid an uneven round of technical maneuvering on Wednesday. Winter wheat contracts showed some positive upside, with December Chicago SRW futures up 7.5 cents to $8.4225 and December Kansas City HRW futures up 7.75 cents to $9.4225. MGEX spring wheat contracts failed to follow suit, however, with December futures dipping half a penny lower to $9.5175.
Prior to tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see wheat sales ranging between 3.7 million and 18.4 million bushels for the week ending October 20.
In Argentina, the Rosario grain exchange lowered its estimates for the country’s 2022/23 wheat production by 8.7% to 503.4 million bushels, down from the group’s prior projection of 551.2 million bushels. The move was largely due to widespread ongoing drought plaguing the country.
Pakistan received multiple offers in its international tender to purchase 18.4 million bushels of wheat that closed earlier today. The states state trading agency is still considering the eight offers submitted.
Algeria is thought to have started making purchases in its international tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closed on Tuesday. Algeria sometimes buys more than the nominal amount listed, but there is no evidence that will be likely for this particular purchase.
South Korea issued a tender to purchase 4.7 million bushels of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, Canada and/or Australia. The tender closes on Thursday, and the grain is for shipment in January and February.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 66,862 CBOT contracts, shifting 15% below Tuesday’s final count of 78,377.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
689.75
683.25
685
-0.75
23-Mar
695.5
689
690.5
-1.25
Soybeans
22-Nov
1397.75
1378.75
1381.75
-0.5
23-Jan
1409
1388.75
1393
0.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
412.1
400.7
402
-5.2
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
70.9
69.17
70.37
0.99
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
846.5
824
840.5
7.5
23-Mar
864.75
843.75
859.5
6.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
946.25
923
940.75
7.75
23-Mar
945
922.25
940.5
8.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
959.75
945
952
-0.5
23-Mar
966
952.25
959.25
-0.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
151.7
150.9
151.675
0
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
179
177.05
178.975
1.05
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
91.8
90.3
91.05
0.375
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
88.41
84.14
88
2.68
Diesel
22-Nov
4.2777
3.9315
4.1267
0.1595
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.976
2.8563
2.8994
-0.0166
Natural Gas
22-Dec
6.265
5.828
6.147
-0.019
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
111.015
109.465
109.585
-1.245
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1674
1652.3
1664.4
11.6
Copper
22-Oct
3.5755
3.558
3.56
0.1095
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/21)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
5
DAP-New Orleans
801.9
2.76
Urea-New Orleans
650.4
-16.53
Urea-Middle East
702.5
-55
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
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