Morning report: The dollar flirted with a one-month low overnight. That pushed up grain prices across the board.. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn up 1-3 cents
Soybeans up 3-6 cents; Soymeal up $3.80/ton; Soyoil down $0.46/lb
Chicago wheat up 10-12 cents; Kansas City wheat up 7-8 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 7-9 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field updates! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
My latest FFTF column is live on our site! Soybean harvest is rapidly coming to a close across the country and more and more FFTF respondents are reporting corn harvest as complete. This week’s article focuses on yield reflection. Check out the article for the latest farmer insights!
Corn
Corn prices flirted with a one-week high overnight, rising $0.02-$0.03/bushel at last glance on worries about upcoming access to Black Sea grain corridors. The dollar dipped to a one-month low overnight but has since risen slightly higher. But the slightly weaker currency value bodes favorably for sluggish U.S. export prospects.
Soybeans
Soybean prices rose $0.03-$0.08/bushel in the early morning trading session on the dollar’s latest lows. Export data out from USDA today is offering more signs of optimism for peak soybean export season, though volumes continue to trail miserably behind even last year’s lackluster shipping paces as drought continues to restrict barge movement on the Mississippi River.
Wheat
Wheat price movement stole the show overnight for a few key reasons. First, the lower dollar made U.S. wheat more affordable on the global market. Second, Russia once again cast doubt on the future of the Black Sea Grains Initiative. And third, additional cuts to the Argentine wheat crop kept supply worries alive and well during the overnight trading session.
“Argentina has received some rains this week but traders see a drier period just ahead,” research firm Hightower said in a memo, as reported by Reuters. “Some weather traders see the drought stress continuing in the longer term.”
Russia fired up wheat markets overnight after a foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters in Moscow that the future of the “Black Sea Grains Initiative” was not yet certain in Russia because the West was not holding up to its end of the deal that would help speed up Russian grain and fertilizer exports, according to the Kremlin.
International sanctions on Russian banking entities and heightened risk due to some grain supplies being stolen from illegally occupied Ukrainian territory has led the invisible hand of the market to increase risk premiums on Russian exports in the form of higher insurance, financing, and freight costs for Russian shipments. These risk premiums have made Russian fertilizer and grain shipments cost prohibitive for some international buyers, much to Moscow’s dismay.
Meanwhile, United Nations aid chief Martin Griffiths was “relatively optimistic” yesterday that a deal brokered by the U.N. and Turkey between Russia and Ukraine would extend the initiative beyond its current deadline.
The Grains Initiative is set to expire in the second half of November. The ongoing back-and-forth rhetoric between Russia and the West (“Will they?” “Won’t they?”) will likely continue to sway grain markets for the coming weeks.
Inputs
Yesterday, a spokesperson for Norwegian fertilizer producer Yara told reporters that the company’s ammonia production had returned to 65% of its capacity after dropping its capacity to just over 33% two months ago in response to record-breaking natural gas supplies.
“We have about 65% of the ammonia production in Europe in operation,” the company’s spokesperson said. “Due to optimalisation and global flexibility, we manage to produce at near total capacity of finished products in Europe”.
Liquid natural gas (LNG) cargo vessels shipped to Europe have boomed in recent months and a mild fall season has left many ships waiting to be unloaded across European ports as a glut of supply overstocks current demand needs.
But this is good news for U.S. farmers – as more fertilizer capacity comes back online in Europe, it could make U.S. prices more affordable, especially if the pace of U.S. nitrogen fertilizer exports to the European Union slows in the coming weeks.
Weather: It is sleeting on the Colorado Front Range this morning! And while I am not ready for cold weather yet this year, the mountains received enough snow to make me excited about skiing season!
While clear skies will help dry out soils for farmers still finishing harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt today, the wintery precipitation system currently over the Central Rockies will move into the Central Plains today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. Showers will move into the Southern Plains tonight, bringing beneficial moisture to winter wheat crops in the region. Oklahoma and Eastern Texas will see the highest chances for accumulation over the next 24 hours – up to an inch – while the rest of the Central and Southern Plains are only likely to see a quarter to a half inch during that time.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending warmer for the Midwest and Plains and wetter for the entire country. Chances for rain are highest in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, though the Southern Plains could see some moisture relief as well.
Those trends will continue to hold for the 8-10-day outlook, though a higher chance of rain will move into the Upper Midwest during that time.
Financials
Third quarter U.S. GDP data is slated to be released this morning and markets were mixed ahead of the report. S&P500 futures edged 0.08% higher to $3,844.00 on the sentiments, which are likely to be responsive to tech company earnings today as Amazon and Apple release quarterly earnings results.
“Investors are worried that lackluster results so far in technology companies’ earnings could be a sign that an economic slowdown is starting to show,” the Wall Street Journal’s Caitlin Ostroff wrote this morning of today’s overarching market sentiments.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
In the second part of Mike Downey’s series on protecting your farm from the nursing home, Downey urges landowners to consider part sale-part gifts to minimize tax expenses.
Advance Trading’s Josh Green examines the likelihood of corn and soybeans jumping back to $7/bushel and $14/bushel, respectively, price levels.
Is it time to sell 2023 crops? Bryce Knorr points out that corn offers an easier path to profits next year.
Water Street Solutions’ Darren Frye has three proactive steps farmers should take to ensure a farm operation’s legacy.
Pinion’s (formerly K Coe Isom) Davon Cook is doing the math to resolve family conflicts on the farm.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 10/27/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.8925
6.83
6.885
0.035
0.51%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.945
6.8875
6.9375
0.0325
0.47%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.9375
6.88
6.93
0.03
0.43%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.8725
6.8175
6.87
0.035
0.51%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.37
6.3525
6.3625
-0.01
-0.16%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2575
6.2225
6.2525
0.0175
0.28%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.3125
6.3025
6.3125
0.01
0.16%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.3375
#N/A
6.3225
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.29
6.2875
6.29
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.92
13.8025
13.885
0.0675
0.49%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0325
13.9175
13.9925
0.0625
0.45%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.115
14
14.0725
0.055
0.39%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.185
14.0775
14.15
0.0575
0.41%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.22
14.11
14.1825
0.055
0.39%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.07
13.96
14.035
0.0475
0.34%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.75
13.645
13.7225
0.055
0.40%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.62
13.5275
13.595
0.0525
0.39%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.6175
13.6175
13.6175
0.0375
0.28%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.57
13.56
13.56
0.0325
0.24%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.5625
#N/A
13.505
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
73.97
72.9
73.05
-0.37
-0.50%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
70.93
70.12
70.2
-0.17
-0.24%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
413.4
408.7
413
4.3
1.05%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
406.4
402
406.1
4.1
1.02%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.4
393.5
398.1
3.8
0.96%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
393.8
389.7
393.8
3.8
0.97%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
393.3
389.4
393.3
3.6
0.92%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.58
8.395
8.545
0.14
1.67%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.765
8.5825
8.7275
0.1325
1.54%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.8575
8.7025
8.835
0.1375
1.58%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.8425
8.6875
8.825
0.135
1.55%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.8875
8.7525
8.8725
0.13
1.49%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.96
8.8175
8.96
0.1425
1.62%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.93
8.8575
8.93
0.1075
1.22%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.5575
9.385
9.5125
0.105
1.12%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.5525
9.38
9.5075
0.1025
1.09%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.5275
9.3775
9.4925
0.105
1.12%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4525
9.3025
9.4225
0.105
1.13%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.43
#N/A
9.3
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.44
#N/A
9.33
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.2725
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6475
9.4925
9.605
0.085
0.89%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7075
9.565
9.6725
0.08
0.83%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7475
9.6575
9.73
0.0775
0.80%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6475
9.6475
9.6475
0.0125
0.13%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.4
9.37
9.4
0.025
0.27%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.32
9.32
9.32
-0.0225
-0.24%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.305
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
110.055
109.365
109.92
0.368
0.34%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
88.48
87.33
88.19
0.28
0.32%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
87.27
86.12
86.93
0.25
0.29%
NOV ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.1752
4.0875
4.0956
-0.0245
-0.59%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.7163
3.6423
3.6588
-0.0178
-0.48%
NOV ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.9352
2.885
2.891
-0.0084
-0.29%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.6312
2.5627
2.5774
-0.0002
-0.01%
OCT ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
176.425
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
178.825
0
0.00%
CT2 ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
151.45
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
153.575
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
88.5
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
91
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.84
21.81
21.84
0.06
0.28%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.88
20.47
20.47
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.31
19.07
19.31
0.21
1.10%
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
