Afternoon report: Corn prices also down in Friday’s session, while soybeans stay firm
A strong U.S. Dollar continues to weigh on corn and wheat prices, generating worries that the grains are not competitively priced for some overseas buyers. That and other factors had traders engaged in more technical selling on Friday. Wheat losses ranged between 0.75% and 1%, while corn prices saw more modest cuts of around 0.3%. Soybeans stayed in the green, meantime, picking up moderate gains by the close.
Rain is expected from the Mid-South all through the eastern Corn Belt between Saturday and Tuesday, with some areas gathering another 1.5″ or more during this time, per NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. The Plains should stay completely dry during this time, however. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for most areas west of the Mississippi River between November 4 and November 10, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the Midwest and Plains.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow rocketed ahead 760 points in afternoon trading to 32,793 and is on pace for its fourth-consecutive winning week on signs that inflation may finally be cooling. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil slumped 1.5% lower this afternoon to $87 per barrel. Gasoline dropped 5%, while diesel firmed by more than 4.5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-2,500), soyoil (-3,500) and CBOT wheat (-1,000). Funds were roughly even when trading soybean contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices struggled to find positive momentum on Friday as seasonal harvest pressure and a slowdown in Chinese imports continue to take their toll. December futures dropped 2.5 cents to $6.7975, with March futures down 2 cents to $6.8575.
Corn basis bids firmed 8 cents at an Ohio elevator and tracked 3 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Mexico’s agriculture ministry has indicated that the country’s 2014 ban on genetically modified corn would not be amended. Because of that, Mexico’s U.S. imports could be cut in half when that ban is enacted. “There are many alternatives to importing non-GMO yellow corn from the United States,” asserted deputy agriculture minister Victor Suarez earlier this week. Mexico currently exports around 670 million bushels of corn annually from the U.S.
Chinese purchases of U.S. corn in the 2022/23 marketing year are only at 141.7 million bushels through October 20. That’s less than half of the totals accumulated at the same time in 2020 and 2021, according to the latest USDA data.
France’s dismal 2022 corn crop is nearly completely harvested, with progress reaching 96% through Monday, per the county’s FranceAgriMer farm office. Because of hot, dry conditions throughout the season, this year’s harvest is running 28 days ahead of 2021’s pace and 18 days ahead of the prior five-year average.
South Korea purchased 5.3 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is comprised of two consignments that are set for arrival in early to mid February.
How much would a rail strike hurt farmers? Other transport sources could pick up some of the slack, but the impact of temporarily losing access to a system that is comprised of 1.5 million carloads per year cannot be totally discounted. Unless 12 rail unions approve proposed contracts (or unless Congress steps in), a strike could happen as soon as November 19.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 160,242 contracts, sliding a bit below Thursday’s final count of 175,423.
Soybeans
Soybean prices made modest inroads on Friday after another round of technical buying. Prices have been largely stable for the entire month of October, hovering around the $14 per bushel benchmark. Today, November futures added 4.25 cents to $13.8650, with January futures up 6.5 cents to $14.00.
Soybean basis bids tumbled 43 cents lower at an Ohio elevator on Friday while firming 7 to 20 cents higher at two other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. today.
Private exporters announced two large soybean sales to USDA on Friday. The first was for 4.6 million bushels to China, and the second was for 7.3 million bushels to Spain. Both sales are for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
China will auction off another 18.4 million bushels of its state reserves of imported soybeans on November 11. China has offered multiple similarly sized sales throughout the year to boost local supplies and quell high prices.
South Korea purchased 120,000 metric tons of soymeal, likely sourced from China or the United States, in a private deal that closed earlier today. Arrival is expected between March and April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 272,720 contracts, trending moderately above Thursday’s final count of 230,756.
Wheat
Wheat prices continued to erode lower on Friday on general export concerns, with much-needed rains in Argentina applying some additional downward pressure today. December Chicago SRW futures fell 8.25 cents to $8.3025, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 7.25 cents to $9.25, and December MGEX spring wheat futures faded 8 cents lower to $9.4250.
France’s 2022/23 soft wheat crop is currently being planted, with 63% in the ground through Monday, per the FranceAgriMer farm office. That’s up from 46% a week ago. France’s new barley crop is now 80% planted, versus 67% in the prior week.
What’s the best way to read and understand USDA’s weekly export inspection reports? Grain market analyst Roger Wright tackles that subject in part one of a series in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve visited FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is a great way to quickly catch up on the ag industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes an update on historically low water levels on the Mississippi River, updates in Tyson’s antitrust lawsuit and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 60,150 CBOT contracts, tracking slightly lower than Thursday’s final count of 68,920.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
cents/bu
22-Dec
683.75
676.25
680.75
-2.5
23-Mar
689.25
682.25
686.75
-2
Soybeans
22-Nov
1390.75
1370
1387.75
4.25
23-Jan
1402
1380.5
1400.25
6.5
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
416.7
405.6
416.2
7.2
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
69.69
68.6
69.21
-0.3
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
840.25
822.5
829.25
-8.25
23-Mar
859.5
842
849
-7.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
934.5
915.25
925
-7.25
23-Mar
934
915
924.75
-7
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
950.5
940.75
945
-8
23-Mar
956.5
948.5
953
-8
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
151.4
149.925
150.75
-0.65
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
181.625
180.1
180.5
0.05
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
89.5
87.65
88.975
0.825
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
88.76
87.08
87.94
-1.14
Diesel
22-Nov
4.6841
4.33
4.5199
0.186
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.9999
2.7697
2.908
-0.1036
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.153
5.824
5.976
-0.16
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
110.925
110.135
110.725
0.272
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1670.9
1640.7
1638.7
-21.6
Copper
22-Nov
3.5375
3.4535
3.4785
-0.077
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/28)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
790.9
-11.02
Urea-New Orleans
611.8
-38.58
Urea-Middle East
647.5
-55
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
614.5
-2.76
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