Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat shift higher in Friday’s session
Grain prices found some tailwinds on Friday that pushed corn, soybeans and wheat higher following a round of technical buying today. Soybeans found double-digit gains on the way to 2% gains. Most wheat contracts rose between 1.25% and 2%, while corn firmed 0.5%.
Not a lot of rain or snow is expected across the Midwest and Plains over the next several days, while the Mid-South and Southwest could see some additional moisture between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Seasonally dry weather is likely for the central U.S. between November 18 and November 24, according to NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook, while most of the United States will face colder-than-normal conditions during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow inched 21 points higher to 33,736 following gains of more than 1,200 points yesterday. Investors appear more confident that inflation is finally starting to cool, which in turn sparked hopes that the Federal Reserve will dial back its aggressive interest rate policy. Energy futures were mixed on Friday. Crude oil firmed nearly 2% higher to $88 per barrel on global demand optimism. Gasoline was also up around 0.75%, but diesel dropped nearly 1% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened considerably.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+3,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-10,500), soybeans (-9,500), soymeal (-6,000) and CBOT wheat (-1,000).
NOTE: If you missed Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA, be sure to click here and catch up on the latest numbers, along with exclusive analysis from Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland.
Corn
Corn prices followed other grains higher on Friday, emerging from a choppy session with gains of around 0.5%. A weakening U.S. Dollar and rising energy futures lent additional support today. December futures added 4.25 cents to $6.5750, with March futures up 2.5 cents to $6.62.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. after trending 2 to 11 cents higher at four Midwestern ethanol plants and moving as much as 15 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal on Friday. An Iowa river terminal bucked the overall trend after dropping 5 cents today.
Wednesday’s WASDE report showed U.S. stocks-to-use levels at near-record lows of 8.3%, notes Jim McCormick, hedging strategist with AgMarket.net. “With the balance sheet projections this tight, producers might consider maintaining some ownership bushels via options strategy,” he suggests. McCormick offers more analysis and advice in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins (excluding eastern Europe) in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in late February.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 432,986 contracts, tracking slightly above Thursday’s final count of 409,307.
Soybeans
Soybean prices rose 2% higher on demand optimism after China lowered some covid quarantine restrictions, which triggered a round of technical buying on Friday. November futures firmed 28.5 cents to $14.59, with January futures up 28.75 cents to $14.5175.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Friday but did track 5 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal and 9 cents higher at an Ohio elevator today.
Ahead of the next monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report, out next Tuesday, analysts are expecting to see an October crush totaling 184.464 million bushels. If realized, that would be nearly 17% higher than September’s crush and 0.3% higher year-over-year. Individual trade guesses ranged between 175.000 million and 191.343 million bushels.
Brazil’s Safras & Mercado now estimates the country’s 2022/23 soybean production will reach a record-breaking 5.677 billion bushels. That’s nearly 2% higher than the group’s prior projection. Want a first-hand account of how planting is going in Brazil so far? Be sure to read updates from Matthew Kruse about his family farm in Mato Grosso – click here to learn more.
China will again auction off another 18.4 million bushels of its state reserves of imported soybeans on November 25. China has offered a series of similarly sized auctions throughout 2022 as it attempts to boost local supplies and quell high prices.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve ventured onto FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes an update on how the midterm elections might affect the 2023 Farm Bill, a new way to determine nitrogen applications and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 205,805 contracts, shifting slightly below Thursday’s final count of 225,594.
Wheat
Wheat prices benefited from a round of bargain buying on Friday, recouping losses incurred on Thursday (and then some) after CBOT contracts hit a two-month low yesterday. December Chicago SRW futures added 10.25 cents to $8.1375, December Kansas City HRW futures rose 18.25 cents to $9.4350, and December MGEX spring wheat futures gained 13 cents to $9.4450.
Tunisia purchased 3.7 million bushels of soft wheat, 3.7 million bushels of durum wheat and 1.8 million bushels of animal feed barley from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between December 5 and January 25.
South Korea purchased 2.0 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from animal feed wheat, in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between March 15 and April 15.
The Philippines likely passed on all offers to purchase 2.2 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. Prices were regarded as too high. The grain would have been for shipment between November and March.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 132,767 CBOT contracts, sliding slightly below Thursday’s final count of 150,118.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
661
653.5
658
4.25
23-Mar
666.75
659.25
663
2.5
Soybeans
22-Nov
1463.75
1439
1455.5
28.5
23-Jan
1458.75
1424.25
1450
28.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
406.8
400.4
403.6
3.2
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
75.94
73.44
74.54
0.93
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
819.5
799.5
813.75
10.25
23-Mar
839.75
821.25
835.25
9
KC Wheat
22-Dec
945.75
923
943.5
18.25
23-Mar
941.25
919
939
17.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
950
931.5
945.75
13
23-Mar
962.25
944
958.25
12.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
153.1
151.275
151.825
-1.25
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
181.6
178.525
178.725
-2.975
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
89.5
87.825
88.35
-0.475
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
90.1
86.18
88.97
2.5
Diesel
22-Dec
3.6948
3.5078
3.5572
-0.0122
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Dec
2.648
2.5548
2.6193
0.053
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.864
6.172
6.315
-0.298
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
108.32
106.14
106.26
-1.832
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1771
1750.3
1765.1
14.8
Copper
22-Nov
3.934
3.8905
3.913
0.117
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 11/11)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
764.5
-26.46
Urea-New Orleans
583.1
-28.66
Urea-Middle East
587.5
-60
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
599.7
-14.88
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