Morning report: Corn, soybeans also fall as Russia agrees to keep Ukrainian grain flows unencumbered. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 5-9 cents
Soybeans down 12-15 cents, Soymeal down $1.80/ton, Soyoil down $1.52/lb
Chicago wheat down 14-16 cents, Kansas City wheat down 8-9 cents, Minneapolis wheat down 4-7 cents
*Prices as of 6:55 am CST.
Good morning! I will be the speaker for a Farm Progress 365 session today! I will be talking about current cash market trends as well as where and when more selling opportunities will present in the market. The half-hour session starts at 10am CST and you can register via this link. I hope to see you there!
Feedback from the Field final column! Thank you to everyone who contributed to the FFTF series this growing season! My final column for the season is live on our website and features many growers’ reflections of the crop year as harvest has largely ended. There are also a few good insights about winter wheat conditions sprinkled in the column.
The entire season’s responses are archived on the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see responses from other growers across the country from any point in the growing season.
Here were a few of my favorite insights in the last column of the season. Check out the column for even more insights and a special update about my lawn!
“Variable [corn yields this year]. Nothing like last year. Little rain in July & Aug. really hurt. Yields were a bit better than what we thought they’d be due to the lack of rain.” – South Central Iowa corn grower
“Worse [corn yields] than expected. Heat and drought caused damage, irrigated not as good as usually 10-20% less. dryland varied greatly. Last year was also drought but irrigated yields better.” – Eastern Colorado corn producer
“I’ve been around some dry falls over the years but this one perhaps ranks as the driest,” worried an Eastern Nebraska winter wheat producer. “We haven’t had a good rain, just showers, since early September and we desperately need something. Fire hazard is extremely high. The concern is now without fall/winter precipitation managing crop residue in the spring will be very challenging.”
“Worst case scenario for many PNW wheat farmers this fall with dry conditions and temps clinging to the upper 70’s late into October brought late seeding and fall tillage for spring crops, still many fields lie unseeded/tilled,” a winter wheat grower in Eastern Washington shared. “Last week of October was fall and now single digits, teens and daytime highs barely climbing above freezing for most of November so far.”
“Average bean yield (upper 60’s). Needed more rain in August to get better yields.” – a Northwestern Illinois soybean producer
“Full season beans did OK, double crop beans where in the 37-45 bpa range which they all needed that other rain in mid-September to finish them out.” – a Central Kentucky soybean grower
Is supply chain drama cancelled?
I for one, will always revel in any supply chain news. But this Wall Street Journal article posits that consumers will actually enjoy a normal holiday buying season this year thanks to changing inventory management strategies, scaled-back demand, and in some cases – lower prices.
Many fertilizer retailers have also dramatically adjusted inventory management strategies in response to supply chain issues, which is one likely contributor (among many) to higher input prices for farmers.
Overnight
Russia agreed to extend the Black Sea grain export deal (the Black Sea Grain Initiative), which will keep Ukrainian grain exports flowing out of Black Sea terminals. Grain markets received a bit of a boost yesterday when Russian missiles landed in Poland.
But those gains are long gone in the early morning hours as market uncertainty about the viability of the Black Sea grain corridor eases.
“I welcome the agreement by all parties to continue the Black Sea grain initiative to facilitate the safe navigation of export of grain, foodstuffs and fertilizers from Ukraine,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a statement, as reported by Reuters.
The U.N., which brokered the deal between Russia and Ukraine, will now turn its focus to freeing up Russian fertilizer supplies. That item has been a sticking point for Moscow as slow shipments amid rapid Ukrainian export volumes in recent months has led Russian officials to criticize the grain deal and cast much price uncertainty over grain markets.
“We took note of the UN Secretariat’s intensified efforts to implement its commitments in this regard and the information provided to us on its interim results on the removal of obstacles to the supply of Russian fertilizers and foodstuffs,” the Russian foreign ministry said in an overnight statement.
The new extension will last for 120 days, buying the market a little more certainty ahead of spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Corn
Corn prices dropped over 1% following the news of the Black Sea grain deal extension. Prices traded $0.06-$0.09/bushel lower as global supply worries eased.
“The renewal of the deal is going to put some extra pressure on wheat, although most of the market had been banking on an extension,” a European trader told Reuters. “Corn prices could be pressured as the renewal of the deal will allow several million tonnes more corn to reach the market.”
Soybeans
Soybean prices fell $0.12-$0.15/bushel on the Black Sea agreement extension between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil producer and exporter, so soybeans were not immune to the bearish price forces currently plaguing the ag markets this morning.
Corn and wheat have comprised the majority of Ukraine’s grain exports since the initiative began in August. But improved global access to Ukrainian ports could keep sunflower oil competitive with the rest of the edible oil complex in the coming weeks.
Wheat
Chicago SRW wheat prices suffered a 2% loss this morning as news broke that the Black Sea Grains Initiative would be extended for another 120 days. U.S. wheat prices fell $0.04-$0.17/bushel on the news, which should not have come as a big surprise to market watchers.
“It was in the interest of all the parties to reach an agreement,” Nathan Cordier, analyst with consultancy Agritel, told Retuers. “A renewal was largely priced in by the market, but there are still negotiations taking place on questions like the one-year extension.”
Weather
Even more cold and snowy winter weather settling over the Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. Snowfall is expected today from Northern Colorado (It’s me – hi!) all the way to Michigan. Total accumulation is likely to be light – probably not topping more than an inch in most areas of the Upper Midwest, though the Colorado Rockies and Western Michigan are likely to see slightly more accumulation.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending closer to normal in terms of temperature for the Eastern Corn Belt and Upper Midwest. But temperatures are likely warm in the Central Plains during that time. Chances for rain will be below normal across the Heartland during Thanksgiving, but the Pacific Northwest will see an above average chance of moisture during that time.
Those trends will begin to shift slightly in the 8-10-day outlook. Forecasts during that time are much warmer for the Western two-thirds of the country than in the 6-10-day forecast. The chances for excessive dryness during that time will recede slightly and center over the Central Plains, with the Eastern Corn Belt expecting an above average chance of moisture during that time.
Financials
S&P 500 futures dipped 0.79% lower overnight to $3,937.25 as Wall Street continues to stumble over cryptocurrency crashes and worries that the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive pace on interest rate increases.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
My latest E-corn-omics column features a recap of the top highlights from Tuesday’s USDA Data Users’ Meeting.
Advance Trading’s Cesar Cruz explains how the recent Brazilian elections may have opened a window of opportunity to U.S. soybean producers.
The average cost of the 2022 Thanksgiving meal? It’s $10 higher (+20%) than last year due to inflation, supply chain issues, and bird flu. Is it too soon to brag about the $0.99/lb turkey I bagged at the grocery store over the weekend?!
Virginia Tech ag economist David Kohl guides farmers on how to navigate emergency USDA payments as peak tax preparation season approaches.’
Cargill’s CEO David MacLennan thinks that food prices are going to fall in 2023 – here’s why.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit will feature an array of speakers – including myself! – that will provide you insights to keep running a profitable farm business.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 11/17/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.65
6.5475
6.5575
-0.095
-1.43%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.67
6.57
6.58
-0.095
-1.42%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6575
6.56
6.5725
-0.09
-1.35%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.605
6.5075
6.52
-0.0875
-1.32%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.245
6.16
6.175
-0.0775
-1.24%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1375
6.07
6.0825
-0.0625
-1.02%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1525
6.14
6.1475
-0.065
-1.05%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.225
#N/A
6.235
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.195
6.1575
6.1575
-0.055
-0.89%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.3175
14.1225
14.1275
-0.165
-1.15%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.3725
14.175
14.185
-0.1625
-1.13%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.43
14.2375
14.2425
-0.165
-1.15%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.4475
14.2675
14.2725
-0.155
-1.07%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.2525
14.1175
14.1175
-0.155
-1.09%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.935
13.815
13.83
-0.1275
-0.91%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8075
13.65
13.6525
-0.1375
-1.00%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.78
13.7025
13.7025
-0.1075
-0.78%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.7
#N/A
13.71
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.6
13.6
13.6
-0.0625
-0.46%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
11.75
#N/A
13.6625
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
74.44
72.35
72.45
-1.63
-2.20%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
72.4
70.37
70.45
-1.65
-2.29%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408
403.8
404.7
-1.9
-0.47%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
405.2
401.2
401.9
-2.1
-0.52%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
401.3
397.4
397.8
-2.1
-0.53%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.9
395.6
396.1
-1.6
-0.40%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
399
395.6
395.7
-1.9
-0.48%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.1825
7.9375
7.99
-0.185
-2.26%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.3725
8.1475
8.19
-0.1825
-2.18%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.4575
8.255
8.3025
-0.17
-2.01%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.495
8.3
8.34
-0.17
-2.00%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.57
8.375
8.4075
-0.1675
-1.95%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.6375
8.47
8.4975
-0.165
-1.90%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.51
8.51
8.51
-0.185
-2.13%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.555
9.42
9.44
-0.115
-1.20%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4575
9.3375
9.355
-0.105
-1.11%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.3825
9.285
9.3125
-0.075
-0.80%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.27
9.1625
9.18
-0.095
-1.02%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.2475
9.1725
9.1725
-0.0825
-0.89%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.265
9.265
9.265
-0.0175
-0.19%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.22
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.66
9.575
9.6125
-0.0425
-0.44%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.75
9.67
9.705
-0.0375
-0.38%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7875
9.7425
9.7425
-0.045
-0.46%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.76
9.7225
9.76
-0.005
-0.05%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.55
9.495
9.495
-0.06
-0.63%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.5
#N/A
9.57
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.5375
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
106.88
105.975
106.865
0.713
0.67%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
85.45
83.64
83.73
-1.86
-2.17%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
84.98
83.12
83.25
-1.75
-2.06%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6292
3.538
3.5445
-0.0691
-1.91%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.5007
3.4137
3.4188
-0.0651
-1.87%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.5145
2.4611
2.462
-0.046
-1.83%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.4675
2.4156
2.4163
-0.0434
-1.76%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
175.7
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
177.475
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
151.8
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
154.25
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
85.575
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
90.35
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.02
#N/A
20.98
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.94
21.92
21.92
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.86
#N/A
20.86
0
0.00%
