Morning report: Corn, wheat inch up on a round of bargain buying following Friday’s selloff. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
*Prices as of 6:50 am CST.
World Cup
In a recent Ag Marketing IQ article, Commstock Investment’s Matthew Kruse writes about how Brazilian planting paces are being interrupted by workers taking time off to watch Brazil play in the World Cup.
Kruse’s cotton gin employees in Brazil wouldn’t even let him install a TV in the gin so employees could keep working while watching the game – it was going to be a mutiny if they didn’t have the day off to watch Brazil play South Korea today.
“You just don’t mess with Brazilians when it comes to their soccer,” Kruse wisely said.
And for those of you who are shaking your head at this (*coughs* Chiefs fans *coughs*) in disbelief – stop it. This is a very real thing. My husband works in healthcare construction and during the last World Cup in 2018, he struggled so much to schedule labor during that time (before labor shortages) that he ended up having to push one owner’s deadline out and paid over budget to meet another. Not to mention the headache of rescheduling work around hospital schedules.
This time around, he baked in extra time to construction schedules during the World Cup season to make sure he had enough labor at a reasonable enough rate that he wouldn’t go over budget or interrupt patient procedures.
If you haven’t been following the World Cup up to this point (and didn’t spend Saturday mourning the U.S. men’s team’s loss to the Netherlands), I encourage you to throw your responsibilities to the wind and start now! (That link is a fun preview of all the action, if you’re interested!)
Especially if you’re a suffering Bears fan like me, or a Broncos fan like my husband (or a reader from Argentina – omg I’m still as stunned as you. So sorry.). He and I are going all in in France (Kylian Mbapp? is the Patrick Mahomes of f?tbol) and hoping that will bring us better luck. Ol?!
Corn
Corn prices rose $0.01-$0.02/bushel to $6.37-$6.48/bushel overnight as the corn complex followed gains in the soy and wheat markets this morning. A weaker dollar and renewed hopes for Chinese demand also helped prop up the morning’s gains.
Soybeans
China continued easing some of its COVID-19 restrictions over the weekend, which revived hope in the commodities space for more Chinese purchases in the near future. The optimism spilled over into the soybean complex, where prices rose $0.04-$0.07/bushel this morning to $14.45-$14.60/bushel.
“Demand, especially for soybeans, is likely to recover if China eases more restrictions,” a Singapore-based trader told Reuters. “Wheat has firmed today but overall, we have record Russian supplies which are going to cap upside in prices.”
Worries about dry forecasts in Argentina also added some wind to the bullish soybean sails this morning. Meanwhile, expect all farming activities to grind to a halt today in Brazil when the country takes on South Korea in today’s World Cup match!
Wheat
Even with the prospect of a bumper Russian wheat crop expected to flood the international markets, U.S. wheat prices still staged a $0.01-$0.03/bushel rally this morning on the weaker dollar and a round of bargain buying after Chicago futures notched a three-month low during Friday’s trading session.
Farm Income
Last Thursday, USDA released updated net farm income figures for the 2022 calendar year and the results were largely favorable to farm country. Soaring corn, soybean, and wheat prices are going to help propel net farm income to the highest level since the Great Grain Robbery in 1973, even as rising production costs outpace the standard inflation rate.
My latest E-corn-omics column features all of the top insights from USDA’s latest updates, which also highlight geographic disparities in net farm income in 2022 as well as the impact of lower government assistance for farmers over the past year.
Rail Strike: Crisis was averted late last week when the Senate passed a bill, which President Biden promptly signed, to keep railways open amidst ongoing worker disputes. The Senate’s bill gave workers better pay and improved reimbursement rates (railway workers often have to travel up to 12 hours away for jobs that span multiple days) but did not give the unions the additional paid time for sick leave that had become the most contentious sticking point for the workers.
Yes – I realize this isn’t super timely news (and shoutout to my team’s awesome coverage of the rail strike last week), but I was out on Friday and didn’t get a chance to cover this as closely as I would’ve liked.
Over the weekend, the New York Times wrote a phenomenal piece about the rail strike – why it came to be, what the workday of an average rail worker looks like, why President Biden stepped in, how much economic damage would have been incurred without legislative interference. The insights were very enlightening to me, and I encourage you to check it out!
Weather
Scattered snow showers are likely to pop up across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, though any accumulation is likely to be light, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. Warmer temperatures in the East will pave the way for rain showers in the Eastern Corn Belt, likely beginning by this afternoon. Accumulation will be light, as the Southeast will see the heaviest rainfall during the next 24 hours.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are trending cooler than usual for the portion of the continental U.S. west of the Rocky Mountains through early next week. During that time, the Plains and Midwest will likely see warmer than average temperatures. Luckily, the precipitation forecasts are calling for above average chances for precipitation across most of the major growing (and skiing!) regions in the U.S., except the Southern Coasts.
The temperature trends in the 8-10-day outlook will shift closer to normal for the Heartland by later next week. Chances for moisture are likely to remain above normal for the Northern Plains, Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region during that time, while the Southern Plains are likely to see a below average chance of precipitation.
Financials
S&P 500 futures traded 0.46% lower to $4,056.75 this morning following a better-than-expected jobs report on Friday (remember – we need to start seeing job losses to ensure that Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are working) that is raising doubts about how quickly the Fed will back off future interest rate hikes.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Roger Wright explains why bullish consensus in the markets is a valuable market indicator.
Executive editor Mike Wilson shares five ways to manage 2023 profit margins.
Here are the details on the Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act introduced into the Senate on Tuesday, which will ensure permanent and full-market access to E15 fuel blends.
A Rabobank research report finds that fertilizer prices in 2023 may finally start to show some signs of easing.
Since 1980, over $1 trillion has been lost to weather damages in the U.S. Senior editor Ben Potter examines if anything can be done to minimize weather losses going forward.
Advance Trading’s Eric Meyer explains how to take control of your farm’s marketing destiny amid unpredictable prices.
It’s time to start planning 2023 goals. Let our Farm Futures Business Summit help you succeed in 2023!
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 12/5/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.3725
6.3275
6.3725
0.0225
0.35%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4825
6.45
6.47
0.0075
0.12%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4925
6.46
6.48
0.0075
0.12%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4625
6.4325
6.45
0.0075
0.12%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.105
6.08
6.09
0.005
0.08%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
5.995
5.97
5.975
-0.005
-0.08%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.0575
6.0475
6.0475
-0.0075
-0.12%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.095
#N/A
6.0875
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.08
6.0675
6.0675
-0.01
-0.16%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.48
14.39
14.4625
0.0775
0.54%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.56
14.4675
14.5375
0.0725
0.50%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6375
14.545
14.6125
0.0725
0.50%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6825
14.59
14.6575
0.0725
0.50%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5025
14.41
14.4575
0.0475
0.33%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.07
13.99
13.99
0
0.00%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8325
13.75
13.815
0.0375
0.27%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.845
13.77
13.84
0.035
0.25%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.775
13.7525
13.7525
0.005
0.04%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.7675
#N/A
13.7275
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.79
#N/A
13.7475
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
68.45
#N/A
67.59
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
66.31
64.8
65.45
0.23
0.35%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
425.8
424.8
425.8
1.3
0.31%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
425.2
423
425
0.9
0.21%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
423.5
421.7
423.4
0.6
0.14%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
421.4
419.7
421.3
0.5
0.12%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
420.6
418.9
420.5
0.5
0.12%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
7.3725
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.68
7.61
7.6325
0.0225
0.30%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.7975
7.735
7.755
0.0225
0.29%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.865
7.8075
7.82
0.0225
0.29%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9475
7.885
7.9075
0.02
0.25%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.065
8.0125
8.0225
0.0175
0.22%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.1225
8.0925
8.1075
0.0425
0.53%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.9125
8.885
8.9125
0.0925
1.05%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.7775
8.715
8.7275
0.02
0.23%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.71
8.6525
8.66
0.0075
0.09%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.6225
8.5825
8.6025
0.0125
0.15%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.62
8.6125
8.6125
0.005
0.06%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.665
8.66
8.665
0.015
0.17%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.62
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.3975
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.24
9.1875
9.2175
0.005
0.05%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.215
9.1725
9.215
0.0275
0.30%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1825
9.1825
9.1825
0.01
0.11%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.0325
9.03
9.0325
0.02
0.22%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.0675
9.0675
9.0675
0.005
0.06%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.01
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
104.755
104.065
104.37
-0.13
-0.12%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
82.4
79.86
82.06
2.08
2.60%
FE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
82.41
79.97
82.1
2.05
2.56%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.2322
3.1609
3.2204
0.0519
1.64%
FEB ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.1904
3.1257
3.1802
0.0508
1.62%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.339
2.2881
2.3261
0.0457
2.00%
FEB ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.3435
2.2941
2.3315
0.0444
1.94%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
182.45
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
185.275
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
153.35
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
155.875
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
82.425
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
90.425
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.37
20.3
20.37
0.08
0.39%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20
19.92
19.98
-0.02
-0.10%
FEB ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.79
19.79
19.79
-0.1
-0.50%
