Corn and soybean prices rebound.
Wheat prices finish Wednesday’s session with narrowly mixed results
After slumping significantly on Tuesday, grain prices spent today in recovery mode, attracting some bargain buyers that triggered a round of technical buying for the most part. Corn prices finished the session up nearly 1.25%, while soybeans grabbed double-digit gains and raced 2.25% higher. Wheat prices were narrowly mixed.
The latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA shows the likelihood for significant amounts of rain or snow to fall in a band stretching from southern Missouri through the Northeastern U.S. between Thursday and Sunday. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather will remain in effect for the Midwest and Plains between February 23 and March 1, with seasonally cool conditions developing in the Plains and western Corn Belt.
On Wall St., the Dow trended 51 points in afternoon trading to 34,937. Investors remain focused on several key issues, including possible interest rate hikes, worrisome inflation and the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices were mostly higher. Crude oil climbed 1.5% to move back above $93 per barrel. Nearby diesel contracts slid 0.4% lower, while nearby gasoline contracts firmed 0.2%. Volatile natural gas prices spiked 9% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-25,000), soybeans (-14,500), soymeal (-6,000), soyoil (-1,500) and CBOT wheat (-13,000).
Corn
Corn prices moved 1.25% higher on a round of technical buying after traders’ focus returned to struggles with drought in South America. Spillover strength from surging soybeans lent additional support. March futures rose 7.75 cents to $6.4575, with May futures up 7.25 cents to $6.4475.
Ethanol production for the week ending February 11 pulled back above the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark, with a daily average of 1.009 million barrels. Ethanol stocks increased slightly from the prior week, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts anticipate the agency will show corn sales ranging between 19.7 million and 49.2 million bushels for the week ending February 10.
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Iran issued an international tender to purchase 2.4 million bushels of feed corn drop optional origins that closes today, as the country continues to shore up supplies after a historic drought last season. The grain is for shipment in February and March.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways last week saw another 24,265 carloads. That brings 2022 totals to 142,296 carloads, a 10.4% decrease from last year’s pace so far.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 253,025 contracts, tilting moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 375,862.
Soybeans
Soybean prices attracted plenty of bargain buying on Wednesday after falling sharply lower earlier this week. Lingering concerns of South American production potential also lent plenty of support today. March futures climbed 35.5 cents to $15.8675, with May futures rising 34.5 cents to $15.9025.
Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins September 1.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 57.0 million and 121.3 million bushels for the week ending February 10. Analysts also anticipate soymeal sales coming in between 150,000 and 550,000 metric tons, along with up to 70,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Louis Dreyfus Company reported that a fire broke out at an Indiana-based processing and biofuel plant yesterday. Nobody was injured, but operations were suspended. The plant has a daily crushing capacity of 175,000 bushels.
China’s official news agency reports that the country is in attempts to lower its soybean demand by 1.1 billion bushels through the promotion of lower soymeal rations and switching to alternative feed proteins. China is by far the world’s top soybean importer.
Iran issued an international tender to purchase 60,000 metric tons of soymeal from optional origins that closes today. The grain is for shipment in February and March.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 221,572 contracts, shifting moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 292,711.
Wheat
Wheat prices were narrowly mixed after an uneven round of technical maneuvering as traders await fresh headlines regarding Russia and Ukraine. A handful of overseas sales were largely ignored. March Chicago SRW futures slipped 0.75 cents lower to $7.79, March futures dipped half a penny lower to $8.0550, and March MGEX spring wheat futures picked up 1.25 cents to $9.5425.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts are expressing some disagreement over the potential volume of wheat sales, offering a range of guesses from 2.8 million all the way up to 23.9 million bushels for the week ending February 10.
India could see grain production reach a record-breaking amount this season, rising an expected 1.7% higher than a year ago. That includes wheat production at an estimated 4.090 billion bushels. India also produces a significant amount of rice, soybeans, canola and chickpeas.
Egypt’s domestic wheat production is likely to reach 367 million bushels this season, according to a statement from the country’s agriculture minister. Egypt is the world’s No. 1 wheat importer.
South Korea purchased 3.0 million bushels of milling wheat from the United States and Canada in an international tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 61% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in late April.
Syria passed on all offers in its tender to purchase 7.3 million bushels of milling wheat that closed earlier this week. The country will likely need to import as much as 55 million bushels of wheat this year, with the majority of that grain expected to be sourced from Russia.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 82,389 CBOT contracts, which was 35% lower than Tuesday’s final count of 127,264.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
647.75
636.25
647
7.75
22-May
647
635.75
645.75
7.25
Soybeans
22-Mar
1589.75
1547
1587.5
35.5
22-May
1593.25
1551.5
1591.25
34.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
443.9
435.8
437.1
3.7
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
67.07
65.48
67.04
1.28
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
786.75
773.25
780.5
-0.75
22-May
793
779.5
786.25
-1.25
KC Wheat
22-Mar
813.25
799.5
808
-0.5
22-May
816.75
806.5
809.75
0.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
957
947.25
953
1.25
22-May
954.75
942
950.25
0.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Feb
144
142.65
143.55
0.65
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
173.325
171.75
172.3
-0.25
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
110.05
108.85
109.425
1.425
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Mar
95.01
91.63
92.99
0.92
Diesel
22-Mar
2.9
2.8282
2.8317
-0.0278
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Mar
2.7253
2.658
2.6608
-0.0083
Natural Gas
22-Apr
4.592
4.279
4.553
0.312
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
96.055
95.76
95.87
-0.123
Gold $/ounce
22-Mar
1873.2
1851.7
1870.1
15.3
Copper
22-Feb
4.5315
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 02/11)
DAP Tampa-index
810.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
804.7
32
Urea-New Orleans
606.3
-62
Urea-Middle East
665.0
-23
Urea-Black Sea
660.0
-50
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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