Soybeans finally snap winning streak.
Corn, soybeans and most wheat contracts landed in the red Thursday
Yesterday, soybean prices reached the highest levels in nearly eight months, which triggered a round of technical selling and profit-taking today that pushed prices modestly lower after a choppy session. Corn followed suit, stumbling to losses of around 0.75%. Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower – only Kansas City HRW contracts were able to stay in the green.
Once Winter Storm Landon moves on its way, not a lot of additional rain or snow is expected for the Midwest and Plains between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally cool weather for the eastern half of the country between February 10 and February 16, with some wetter-than-normal conditions creeping into parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.
On Wall St., the Dow tumbled 302 points in afternoon trading to 35,327 after social media stocks tumbled following a disappointing earnings report from Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook). Investors are also still feeling a bit pessimistic about the prospect of multiple interest rate hikes later this year.
Energy futures surged higher, with crude oil up more than 2% this afternoon on news of tightening supplies, trending above $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Diesel also rose around 2% higher, with gasoline up nearly 1.5%. Volatile natural gas prices plummeted 11% lower. The U.S. Dollar weakened moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+9,000) and soyoil (+1,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-15,000), soymeal (-1,000) and CBOT wheat (-9,500).
Corn
Corn prices suffered a moderate setback after a round of technical selling, but prices still remain relatively close to multi-month highs and have been on a fairly stable upward trajectory since mid-October. March futures dropped 5.5 cents to $6.17, with May futures down 4.5 cents to $6.1775.
Corn basis bids were steady to lightly mixed on Thursday after firming 3 cents at an Illinois river terminal and sliding 1 to 2 cents lower at three other Midwestern locations today.
Private exporters announced to USDA a cancellation for sales of 15.0 million bushels of corn to China. The grain was originally set for delivery during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn export sales for the week ending January 27 moved 47% above the prior four-week average to 46.3 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade estimates, which ranged between 23.6 million and 61.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still slightly behind last year’s pace, with 770.3 million bushels.
Corn export shipments slipped 1% below the prior four-week average, to 45.9 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 13.6 million bushels.
USDA-FAS is now estimating China will import around 787.4 million bushels of corn during the 2021/22 marketing year. Domestic production is expected to rise to 10.732 billion bushels, with increased acres more than compensating for slightly lower yields.
What supply and demand factors will be the biggest driving forces for corn prices moving forward? Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser for Stewart Peterson, walks through some key items in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 363,019 contracts, falling well below Wednesday’s final count of 500,407.
Soybeans
Soybean prices briefly tested gains in Thursday’s choppy session but ultimately closed with modest losses of about 0.3% after some technical selling and profit-taking occurred. March futures faded 4 cents to $15.4125, with May futures down 5.75 cents to $15.4375.
Soybean basis bids improved 2 to 5 cents at two interior river terminals and fell 5 cents at an Illinois processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Old crop soybean export sales trended 56% above the prior four-week average, to 40.3 million bushels. New crop sales totaled 32.4 million bushels for a total of 72.7 million bushels. That was better than the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 29.4 million and 64.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still moderately behind last year’s pace, with 1.336 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments trended 14% below the prior four-week average, with 48.8 million bushels. China was again the No. 1 destination, with 26.6 million bushels.
Two additional consultancies have lowered their estimates for Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean production. Cogo’s latest estimate is for 4.593 billion bushels, down more than 14% from its first forecast of the season. Datagro offered a more bullish estimate of 4.777 billion bushels. Conab will release a new official forecast a week from today.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is looking forward to rain over the next several days, but said a heat wave will follow in a report out earlier today. The group also lowered its 2021/22 soybean production estimates by 4.5%, falling to 1.543 billion bushels.
Worried about inflation? David Kohl takes a look at past periods of high inflation versus today’s situation to look for similarities and differences, as well as what it all means for both producers and consumers. Click here to read Kohl’s latest Road Warrior blog.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 222,698 contracts, tracking 35% lower than Wednesday’s final count of 343,426.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower after an uneven round of technical maneuvering today. March Chicago SRW futures dipped 2 cents lower to $7.53, March Kansas City HRW futures inched 0.75 cents higher to $7.7025, and March MGEX spring wheat futures fell 7.5 cents to $9.0050.
Old and new crop wheat sales totaled 5.9 million bushels, with old crop sales plummeting 92% lower week-over-week. That was below all analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 32.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately below last year’s pace, with 457.2 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments firmed 26% above the prior four-week average, with 14.1 million bushels. Japan was the No. 1 destination, with 4.4 million bushels.
The Philippines issued a tender to purchase animal feed wheat and soymeal, although total volume sought was initially unclear. The grain will be for shipment in June and July.
Japan purchased 2.0 million bushels of food-quality wheat from Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. The Canadian grain is for shipment starting in late March, and the Australian grain is for shipment in June.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 74,098 CBOT contracts, which was moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 108,872.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
624.25
610.25
616.75
-5.5
22-May
624
610.5
617.25
-4.5
Soybeans
22-Mar
1560
1529
1544.25
-4
22-May
1562
1533.75
1547
-5.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
441.6
430.1
435.1
0.8
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
66
64.94
65.74
-0.35
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
756.5
740
751.75
-2
22-May
762.75
746.5
758.25
-1.25
KC Wheat
22-Mar
773.25
753.25
769
0.75
22-May
776.75
757
772.75
0.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
907.25
896.5
900.75
-7.5
22-May
904
894.5
898.5
-7
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Feb
141.975
140.35
141.7
0.575
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
172.825
171.175
171.675
-0.15
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
101.25
98.275
98.5
-0.625
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Mar
90.37
86.75
90.22
1.96
Diesel
22-Mar
2.8435
2.7412
2.8363
0.0674
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Mar
2.6475
2.5731
2.6371
0.0301
Natural Gas
22-Apr
5.009
4.617
4.762
-0.282
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
96.25
95.23
95.385
-0.55
Gold $/ounce
22-Mar
1807.6
1787.8
1804.9
-4.3
Copper
22-Feb
4.47
4.4645
4.47
-0.021
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 01/28)
DAP Tampa-index
810.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
738.6
-28
Urea-New Orleans
598.0
-41
Urea-Middle East
655.0
-68
Urea-Black Sea
667.5
-38
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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