Soybeans continue to march higher.
Corn also grabs big gains Monday, with wheat rising modestly higher
Concerns over production potential in South America, coupled with bullish sentiment about U.S. exports, pushed soybean prices substantially higher again to start the week. Does that sound like a broken record? Maybe so, but those are still the two driving factors for the ongoing soybean rally. Corn prices also made substantial inroads today after a round of technical buying, while wheat prices trended between 0.75% and 1% higher.
Between Tuesday and Friday, many parts of the northern U.S. will gather up some light rain or snow, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the eastern Corn Belt and Great Lakes region between February 14 and February 20, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely in the Plains.
On Wall St., the Dow firmed 177 points in afternoon trading to 35,267, anchored by some better-than-expected corporate earnings reports. Investors also anxiously await the next set of inflation data from the U.S. Labor Department, which will arrive on Thursday. Energy prices were mixed but mostly lower. Crude oil fell 1.25% this afternoon but remain above $91 per barrel. Diesel dropped 0.75%, while gasoline firmed around 0.3% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
Last Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+1,500), soybeans (+5,000), soymeal (+3,500) and CBOT wheat (+6,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,000).
Corn
Corn prices jumped more than 2.5% higher Monday on a round of technical buying largely spurred by dry forecasts in Brazil and Argentina that could further hamper production there. Spillover strength from soybeans lent additional support. March futures rose 16 cents to $6.3650, with May futures up 16.5 cents to $6.3825.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed to start the week, moving as much as 2 cents higher at an Iowa processor and as much as 6 cents lower at an Ohio elevator on Monday.
Corn export inspections totaled 41.5 million bushels last week, moving incrementally above the prior week’s volume. The latest tally was toward the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 38.4 million and 51.2 million bushels. Japan was the top destination, with 11.8 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still trending moderately behind last year’s pace, with 732.1 million bushels.
Ukraine’s corn exports in the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 633.8 million bushels and could top 1.33 billion bushels by the end of June, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Ukraine’s total grain exports are trending nearly 33% above last year’s pace so far.
South Korea purchased 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in a private deal that recently closed. The grain is for arrival around May 20. And another South Korean buyer purchased 5.2 million bushels of feed corn from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today, also for arrival around May 20.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 420,932 contracts, tracking moderately higher than Friday’s final count of 338,499.
Soybeans
Soybean prices continue to push closer to the $16 per bushel benchmark after rising another 2% higher today. Prices briefly crested that level late last spring but were unable to spend sustained time there. Today, March and May futures each climbed 31.25 cents to close at $15.8475 and $15.8875, respectively.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady on Monday but did trend 7 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal and 4 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 18.6 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 49% is for delivery during the current marketing year, which began September 1, with the remainder for delivery in 2022/23.
Soybean export inspections faced a moderate week-over-week decline, dropping to 44.8 million bushels. That was on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 36.7 million and 68.0 million bushels. China was by far the No. 1 destination, with 28.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still well below last year’s pace, with 1.383 billion bushels.
In Brazil, the country’s soybean harvest is 16% complete, according to a statement earlier today from the AgRural consultancy. That’s ahead of last year’s pace of 4%, but work still progressed more slowly than expected “due to constant rains in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and part of Goi?s,” according to AgRural.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 329,455 contracts, moving well above Friday’s final count of 223,678.
Wheat
Wheat prices trended nearly 1% higher after a round of technical buying largely spurred by spillover support from corn and soybeans. A healthy round of grain export inspection data from USDA this morning lent additional support. March Chicago SRW futures added 6.75 cents to $7.7675, March Kansas City HRW futures gained 7.25 cents to $7.93, and March MGEX spring wheat futures rose 8.75 cents to $9.2175.
Wheat export inspections tracked modestly higher from a week ago, reaching 15.3 million bushels. That was also on the higher end of trade guesses, which ranged between 9.2 million and 16.5 million bushels. South Korea was the No. 1 destination, with 3.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately behind last year’s pace, with 515.3 million bushels.
Ahead of a Statistics Canada report out tomorrow morning, analysts expect the agency to report Canadian wheat stocks at 635.7 million bushels through December 31. That would be a year-over-year decline of nearly 31%, if realized.
Ukrainian wheat exports for the current marketing year have reached 632 million bushels, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Total wheat exports in 2021/22 could reach 929.6 million bushels. Ukraine is one of the world’s top wheat and corn exporters and is coming off a record-breaking grain harvest.
Russian consultancy Sovecon is still estimating that the country’s wheat exports for January totaled 88.2 million bushels, which is the lowest monthly tally since last July. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
South Korea purchased 4.0 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The purchase was comprised of two equally sized consignments, and the grain is for arrival in May and June.
Syria issued an international tender to purchase 7.3 million bushels of milling wheat, which will likely be sourced from Russia and closes on February 14. The grain is for shipment 60 days after a contract is awarded.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 151,463 CBOT contracts, which was 64% above Friday’s final count of 92,190.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
636.75
624.75
635.25
16
22-May
638.25
626.25
637.25
16.5
Soybeans
22-Mar
1589.5
1565.25
1581.75
31.25
22-May
1592.75
1567.25
1586.25
31.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
453.2
443.9
451.9
10.5
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
66.5
65.12
65.41
0.02
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
776.5
760
768.75
6.75
22-May
783.25
767.5
776
6.75
KC Wheat
22-Mar
799.25
782.25
791.75
7.25
22-May
801.75
786.75
796
7
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
925.5
910.75
921.25
8.75
22-May
922.75
909
919
9
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Feb
142.35
141.65
141.85
-0.2
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
171.25
169.75
170.3
-1.125
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
102.85
100.3
101.75
1.675
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Mar
92.73
90.73
91.38
-0.93
Diesel
22-Mar
2.9318
2.8425
2.8527
-0.0224
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Mar
2.72
2.6697
2.6867
0.0082
Natural Gas
22-Apr
4.409
4.1
4.2
-0.292
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
95.62
95.34
95.39
-0.09
Gold $/ounce
22-Mar
1823.3
1807.8
1821.3
14.7
Copper
22-Feb
4.4725
4.436
4.457
-0.0265
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 02/04)
DAP Tampa-index
810.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
772.7
34
Urea-New Orleans
668.0
70
Urea-Middle East
687.5
33
Urea-Black Sea
710.0
43
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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