Afternoon report: Corn prices also firm on Friday, with soybeans slightly mixed.
Wheat prices finally snapped a multi-session losing streak after falling low enough to attract some bargain buying on Friday. The result was dramatic – most contracts climbed 3% to 4% higher today. Corn prices were also firm, trending more than 1% higher by the close. Soybeans finished with narrowly mixed results.
Scattered showers should deliver up to 1″ across parts of the eastern Corn Belt between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook suggests that seasonally wet weather is likely for much of the Corn Belt between August 26 and September 1, with seasonally cold conditions settling into the Southern Plains.
On Wall St., the Dow tilted 281 points in afternoon trading to 33,717 on worries that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in making more interest rate hikes later this year. Energy futures were mostly firm, with crude oil testing gains of around 0.4% to reach $90 per barrel. Diesel climbed 1.5% higher, while gasoline faced modest cuts. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+2,500), soybeans (+6,000) and soymeal (+3,500) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,500) and CBOT wheat (-9,500).
Corn
Corn prices finished the week with losses of around 3%, despite making moderate inroads during Friday’s session. A round of technical buying helped prices move more than 1% higher today. September futures added 7.25 cents to $6.27, with December futures up 7.5 cents to $6.2325.
Corn basis bids improved 5 cents at an Ohio elevator and firmed 1 to 3 cents at two interior river terminals while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Argentina’s 2021/22 corn production is expected to reach 2.047 billion bushels, according to the latest estimates from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, climbing 6% higher than the group’s prior estimate from a week ago, due to better-than-expected yields in the Chaco and Salta provinces, along with an upward revision to planted acres. Harvest is around 98% complete.
Ukraine’s 2022/23 grain exports are down almost 52% from a year ago, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. The bulk of exports since the beginning of July is comprised of corn sales totaling 76.4 million bushels. Wheat exports totaled 28.8 million bushels over the same period, with barley exports reaching 11.8 million bushels.
French corn conditions continue to erode lower after another week of excessively hot, dry weather. French farm office FranceAgriMer reported today that only 50% of this season’s crop is now rated in good-to-excellent condition through August 15, falling another three points lower from a week ago. Ratings have tumbled more than 30 points lower in recent weeks and is far below year-ago totals of 91%.
Farmers who sold corn above $7 per bushels two months ago might now be questioning why they didn’t sell more at the time, notes Bill Biedermann, hedging strategist with AgMarket.net. “That is a question that everyone asks once the high of the year is in,” he says. “But does that mean you will not have any more good selling opportunities?” Biedermann explores the potential in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 151,284 contracts, spilling moderately below Thursday’s final count of 211,163.
Soybeans
Soybean prices nearly overcame overnight losses of 7 to 12 cents, ending the session with narrowly mixed results after some uneven technical maneuvering today. Spillover strength from corn and wheat lent some support, although more forecasted rains applied some downward pressure. September futures dropped 4.75 cents to $14.9075, while November futures picked up a penny to $14.0625.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Friday but did slide a penny lower at an Ohio elevator today. Farmer sales have been generally sluggish this week.
China will again auction another 18.4 million bushels of its state imported soybean reserves on August 26. The country continues to regularly draw down its imported soybean stockpile in an attempt to boost local supplies and tamp down high prices.
Brazil is likely to have a bumper crop this coming season, even if weather is uncooperative, according to Matthew Kruse, president of Commstock Investments. “The odds favor a larger crop in Brazil simply because they will be starting with 4+ million more acres than last season,” he notes. “That will help partially cover any production shortfall in Southern Brazil.” Click here for more analysis from Kruse on the world’s largest soybean producer.
The 2022/23 marketing year for corn and soybeans is right around the corner, starting on September 1. “There is a lot of optimism for the 2022/23 soybean export season,” according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “In early August 2022, outstanding export orders for the 2022/23 marketing year stood at 578.4 million bushels, over 1.3 times higher than the same time a year ago.” Holland offers plenty of additional analysis in her new E-corn-omics blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 92,306 contracts, fading moderately below Thursday’s final count of 122,424.
Wheat
Wheat prices climbed substantially higher on Friday, with most contracts finding gains ranging between 3% and 4% after a round of bargain buying today. That brought some much-needed relief after suffering heavy losses earlier this week. September Chicago SRW futures gained 21.75 cents to $7.5325, September Kansas City HRW futures climbed 33.25 cents to $8.4575, and September MGEX spring wheat futures rose 23.5 cents to $8.7625.
Ukraine’s 2022 wheat harvest is 91% complete, with a production of around 639.3 million bushels, according to grain traders union UGA, which added that the Russian invasion has created some ongoing challenges, especially in the east and south. Ukraine’s total grain harvest could fall around 23% below 2021’s record-breaking effort.
Japan will import nearly 500,000 bushels of feed-quality wheat for livestock use following a simultaneous buy-and-sell auction that was held earlier today. The country’s agriculture ministry had initially sought up to 2.6 million bushels of feed wheat and 1.8 million bushels of feed barley in today’s SBS auction. The grain is for arrival in Japan in late January.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve been to FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 stories you might have missed” is one easy way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes a look at new conservation funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, an encouraging look at FFA memberships and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 73,811 CBOT contracts, which is moderately lower than Thursday’s final count of 118,808.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
627.75
616
626
7.25
22-Dec
624.5
612
623.25
7.5
Soybeans
22-Sep
1499.25
1475.75
1488.75
-4.75
22-Nov
1410
1386.25
1404
1
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
414.6
404.7
408
-4.4
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
66.71
64.36
66.32
1.77
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
756.75
727.25
753.25
21.75
22-Dec
773.75
745.25
771
22
KC Wheat
22-Sep
847.25
812.5
844.75
33.25
22-Dec
849.75
815.25
847
31.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
879.75
851.5
874.75
23.5
22-Dec
892
863
887
23.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Aug
141.8
141.325
141.475
0.2
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
186.1
184.3
185.075
-0.2
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
85.575
83.4
84.3
-0.875
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Sep
92.09
88.38
90.48
-0.02
Diesel
22-Sep
3.7391
3.5662
3.6959
0.0462
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Sep
3.0554
2.9664
3.0112
-0.0149
Natural Gas
22-Oct
9.37
8.86
9.273
0.103
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
108.14
107.415
108.07
0.655
Gold $/ounce
22-Sep
1757.7
1745.8
1748.1
-7.2
Copper
22-Aug
3.6725
3.666
3.666
0.0195
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 08/19)
DAP Tampa-index
840.0
-47.5
DAP-New Orleans
826.8
-2.76
Urea-New Orleans
617.3
-3.31
Urea-Middle East
747.5
-15
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
454.7
13.78
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