Afternoon report: Corn prices slightly firm in Thursday’s session, while soybean prices ease lower
Grains were mixed but mostly higher on Thursday. Wheat prices saw the most upside, finding moderate gains and moving to two-month highs after another round of technical buying today. Corn prices were slightly firm following a choppy session, while soybean prices took a modest dip lower after some technical selling.
Light to moderate rains are expected to fall across a large chunk of the central U.S. between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. However, the agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry conditions between September 29 and October 5, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for most of the country during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow dropped 100 points in afternoon trading to 30,082 on growing concerns that the Federal Reserve’s policies to curb inflation could steer the country into a recession. Energy futures made moderate inroads. Crude oil shifted 0.5% higher to $83 per barrel this afternoon, while diesel rose nearly 2% higher and gasoline tacked on gains of more than 1%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat (+3,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-4,000), soybeans (-6,000) and soyoil (-2,000). Funds were roughly even when trading soymeal contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices picked up modest gains following a choppy session on Thursday as traders balanced two large grain sales announced this morning against a disappointing set of export data from USDA. December futures added 1.5 cents to $6.87, with March futures up 2 cents to $6.9225.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak after tilting 5 to 15 cents lower at three Midwestern locations on Thursday. An Ohio elevator bucked the overall trend after firming 3 cents higher today.
Private exporters announced two large corn sales to USDA today. The first is for 4.1 million bushels to Mexico, and the second is for 4.0 million bushels to unknown destinations. Both sales are for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn export sales were disappointing after only reaching 7.2 million bushels for the week ending September 15. That was well below the entire range of trade estimates, which came in between 15.7 million and 33.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still ahead of last year’s pace so far, with 40.4 million bushels.
Corn export shipments fared better last week, with 22.2 million bushels. Mexico, China, Japan, Venezuela and Jamaica were the top five destinations.
The International Grains council made cuts to its 2022/23 world corn production forecast, lowering it by 11 million metric tons (or around 433 million bushels) to 1.168 billion metric tons. That was primarily due to a downward revision to U.S. yields.
In Argentina, the Rosario grains exchange lowered its forecast for 2022/23 corn production to 2.205 billion bushels, versus a previous estimate of 2.283 billion bushels, citing scant rains in July, August and September. Argentina is the world’s No. 3 corn exporter.
Join us next week at the online platform Farm Progress 365 for free informational sessions devoted to maximizing yield maps and putting them to work on your operation. The sessions will take place September 27, 28 and 29 – click here to learn more about them and sign up today!
Preliminary volume estimates were for 149,552 contracts, shifting moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 200,584.
Soybeans
Soybean prices faded moderately lower after some technical selling spurred partly by a lackluster set of export data that USDA released this morning. Upcoming harvest progress will continue to apply seasonal downward pressure over the next several weeks. November futures dropped 6.25 cents to $14.55, with January futures down 6 cents to $14.61.
Soybean basis bids spilled 10 to 25 cents lower at three Midwestern processors while firming 5 cents at an Ohio elevator and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Soybean export sales reached 17.6 million bushels last week. Analysts missed the mark on providing estimates ahead of this morning’s report after offering guesses that ranged between 18.4 million and 36.7 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are off to a better start than a year ago, with 34.7 million bushels since September 1.
Soybean export shipments reached 19.2 million bushels last week. China, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea were the top five destinations.
What factors will prove to be the biggest market-movers over the next few months? Brady Huck, risk advisor with Advance Trading, has his eye on four unfolding factors in particular – South American production, Russia/Ukraine, U.S/China relations and global economic trends. Huck offers more in-depth analysis on each of these four areas in a recent Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
How are your crops looking this week? Have you started harvest yet? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 178,368 contracts, tracking slightly above Wednesday’s final count of 160,495.
Wheat
Wheat prices trended 0.5% to 1.25% higher today as lingering concerns over Ukraine’s production and export potential triggered another round of technical buying. December Chicago SRW future added 5.25 cents to $9.09, December Kansas City HRW futures gained 10 cents to $9.77, and December MGEX spring wheat futures rose 12 cents to $9.7625.
Wheat export sales were lackluster after only reaching 6.7 million bushels last week and falling below the entire range of trade estimates, which came in between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2022/23 marketing year are still slightly behind last year’s pace, with 239.1 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments fared much better, with 24.9 million bushels. China, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand and Nigeria were the top five destinations.
Russian consultancy Sovecon raised its estimates for the country’s 2022 wheat production by 5.6% to a bin-busting total of 3.674 billion bushels, citing better-than-expected spring wheat yields. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Because of higher Russian production potential, the International Grains Council raised its estimates for global wheat production in 2022/23, moving to 29.101 billion bushels. That will be a year-over-year increase of 1.3%, if realized.
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange lowered its estimates for 2022/23 wheat production by 6.8% to 606.3 million bushels, citing lower per-acre yield potential due to drought.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 97,565 CBOT contracts, falling moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 147,655.
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
