Afternoon report: Wheat prices also rake in big gains Monday, while soybeans slump lower
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher to start the week. Corn prices found double-digit gains on persistent concerns over true U.S. production potential, and wheat strengthened considerably on general demand optimism and rampant production challenges across Europe. Soybeans failed to follow suit after more groups released record-breaking production estimates for Brazil.
More rains will be sweeping across the eastern Corn Belt between Tuesday and Friday, while much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will gather no measurable moisture during that time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally hot, dry conditions for the northern half of the country between September 5 and September 11.
On Wall St., the Dow eased 75 points lower in afternoon trading to 32,207 as investors remain squeamish over the Federal Reserve’s ongoing aggressive interest rate policy. Energy futures were mixed but mostly higher. Crude oil climbed more than 4% higher this afternoon to $97 per barrel. Gasoline was also up 1%, while diesel retreated 2% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+11,000), soybeans (+9,500), soymeal (+7,500), soyoil (+2,000) and CBOT wheat (+5,500).
Corn
Corn pricesmade solid inroads on Monday, with worries over U.S. crop quality and yield potential triggering a round of technical buying today. September futures firmed 14.5 cents to $6.8325, while December futures rose 18.75 cents to $6.83.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Monday but did climb 15 cents higher at an Iowa processor while falling 7 to 8 cents lower at two other Midwestern locations today.
Corn export inspections reached 27.1 million bushels, trending moderately lower week-over-week. The latest tally was toward the upper end of trade estimates, which ranged between 19.7 million and 33.5 million bushels. China was by far the No. 1 destination, with 13.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain well behind last year’s pace, with 2.149 billion bushels.
Ahead of the next USDA crop progress report, out Monday afternoon and covering the week through August 28, analysts think the agency will lower corn quality ratings another point lower, with 54% of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition. Individual trade guesses ranged between 53% and 56%.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have reached 152.4 million bushels through August 28. That’s a year-over-year increase of nearly 49% so far.
Ukraine’s agriculture minister expects the country’s 2022 corn harvest slide as much as 40% lower year-over-year due to challenges created by the ongoing Russian invasion. Minister Mykola Solsky says this year’s corn production will likely come in between 984 million and 1.063 billion bushels. On a more optimistic note, Ukraine’s agricultural exports could improve to as much as 6.5 million metric tons per month as shipments are rolling more steadily out of Black Sea ports.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 356,655 contracts, moving well above Friday’s final count of 256,704.
Soybeans
Soybean prices saw significant declines, even despite expectations that U.S. quality ratings will slide another point lower when USDA releases its next crop progress report later this afternoon. Yields are still expected to hold strong in the United States, and Brazil could be bracing for a record-breaking crop this season. September futures tumbled 66.75 cents lower to $15.3850, with November futures falling 21.25 cents to $14.40.
Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S. on Monday.
Soybean export inspections fell moderately lower week-over-week to 16.1 million bushels. That disappointed analysts, who had hoped to see totals come in between 18.4 million and 30.3 million bushels. Mexico topped all destinations, with 3.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are running slightly behind last year’s pace, with 2.074 billion bushels.
Prior to this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, analysts think the agency will lower quality ratings another point lower, with 56% in good-to-excellent condition through August 28. Individual trade guesses ranged between 55% and 58%.
European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have reached 72.0 million bushels through August 28, which is slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal totals are also down slightly year-over-year, with 2.37 million metric tons.
Brazil’s Abiove is the latest group predicting a record-breaking soybean production for the upcoming season. The oilseeds lobby estimates production will reach an unprecedented 5.548 billion bushels in 2022/23. That’s slightly above Brazilian governmental estimates of 5.525 billion bushels. Meantime, Brazil’s Datagro offered an even more bullish estimate of 5.578 billion bushels.
Canada is the world’s top exporter of canola, and official governmental estimates from StatsCan expects this season’s harvest will jump 42% higher from year-ago efforts, to 859.8 million bushels.
South Korea issued an international tender to purchase 1.1 million bushels of GMO-free soybeans from optional origins that closes on September 6. The grain is for arrival starting in late October.
How does your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other operations in the U.S.? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 136,947 contracts, which was slightly below Friday’s final count of 148,794.
Wheat
Wheat prices trended significantly higher after a round of technical buying today, with most contracts closing 2.5% to 4.5% higher. September Chicago SRW futures rose 35 cents to $8.1975, September Kansas City HRW futures gained 29.5 cents to $9.1275, and September MGEX spring wheat futures added 18.5 cents to $9.13.
Wheat export inspections faced a moderate weekly decline, dropping to 19.1 million bushels. That was still on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 23.9 million bushels. Mexico was the top destination, with 3.8 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year have started off sluggishly compared to last year’s pace, with 184.3 million bushels.
Ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show spring wheat quality ratings holding steady, with 64% in good-to-excellent condition through August 28. Harvest progress is expected to move from 33% a week ago up to 52% through Sunday.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year reached 178.6 million bushels through August 28, which is fractionally lower than last year’s pace so far. EU barley exports are trending moderately below last year’s pace, with 69.8 million bushels.
StatsCan estimates that Canada’s all-wheat production will reach 1.271 billion bushels this season, which was modestly higher than analyst estimates and significantly above 2021’s drought-stressed effort. Canada is the world’s No. 3 wheat exporter.
Russia’s Sovecon consultancy upped its estimates for the country’s 2022/23 wheat exports, moving that number to 1.584 billion bushels. That’s reflective of higher production potential, which Sovecon now estimates at 3.480 billion bushels. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Bangladesh has delayed its deadline for offers in its international tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels of wheat from optional origins, which now closes September 18. The grain is for shipment 40 days after contracts are signed.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 103,902 CBOT contracts, tracking slightly higher than Friday’s final count of 95,055.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
684.25
668.5
683.75
14.5
22-Dec
683.75
666.25
683
18.75
Soybeans
22-Sep
1612.25
1530.5
1534.75
-66.75
22-Nov
1460.75
1432
1437.75
-21.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
439.6
428.8
433.6
-0.5
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
68.06
66.69
67.65
-0.27
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
827
774.75
820
35
22-Dec
849
794.25
842.75
37
KC Wheat
22-Sep
922.5
873.25
912.5
29.5
22-Dec
921.5
870.25
912.5
30.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
929.25
884.5
917.5
18.5
22-Dec
944.75
898.5
933.25
22.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Aug
143.125
140.75
141.275
0.475
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
182.9
180.55
181.1
-2.3
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
84.8
82.675
84.6
1.65
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
97.37
92.29
96.88
3.82
Diesel
22-Sep
4.0232
3.8774
3.8968
-0.1108
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Sep
2.8885
2.785
2.876
0.0247
Natural Gas
22-Oct
9.711
8.98
9.29
0.021
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
109.445
108.435
108.675
-0.076
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1748.6
1722.5
1737.4
0.9
Copper
22-Aug
3.665
3.641
3.641
-0.0705
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 08/26)
DAP Tampa-index
820.0
-20
DAP-New Orleans
815.7
-11.02
Urea-New Orleans
683.4
66.14
Urea-Middle East
795.0
47.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
476.8
22.05
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
