Afternoon report: Soybeans suffer double-digit losses, with wheat also in the red Tuesday
Grain prices spilled into the red after fresh demand concerns led to a round of technical selling. Corn losses were modest, at around 0.25%, but it was the third consecutive session in the red. Soybean cuts were a bit more severe, with prices closing nearly 1% lower. Wheat turned in variable losses that ranged between 0.1% and 1.1%.
Very little rain is expected across the central U.S. except for the Great Lakes region between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. But further out, NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally wet weather for the Midwest and Plains between October 25 and October 31, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the eastern half of the country during this time.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow tracked another 409 points higher in afternoon trading to 30,595 after another round of strong corporate earnings reports were released earlier today. Energy futures suffered a significant technical setback. Crude oil dropped 2.75% this afternoon to $82 per barrel on demand fears. Diesel dropped 2.25% and gasoline eroded 1.75% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+6,000) and CBOT wheat (+500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-4,500). Funds were roughly even when trading soybeans and soymeal contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices eased slightly lower on some light technical selling on Tuesday, marking the third straight session that prices moved lower. December futures eased 1.75 cents to $6.8175, with March futures down 2.25 cents to $6.8750.
Corn basis bids steady to mixed on Tuesday after rising as much as 30 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal and slumping as much as 8 cents lower at an Iowa processor today.
Corn quality ratings declined by a point in the week through October 16, although analysts had expected to see them hold steady this past week. Through Sunday, 53% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition. Another 26% is rated fair (unchanged from last week), with the remaining 21% rated poor or very poor (up a point from last week).
Corn quality ratings declined by a point, although analysts had expected to see them hold steady this past week. Through Sunday, 53% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition. Another 26% is rated fair (unchanged from last week), with the remaining 21% rated poor or very poor (up a point from last week).
USDA’s October WASDE report indicated shrinking corn and soybean production estimates, according to grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “But as harvest nears the halfway point this fall, worries about demand cloud what normally should be a bullish outlook,” he adds. Knorr serves up his latest analysis in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s corn exports to reach 282.5 million bushels in October, which is moderately above its prior forecast from a week ago.
European Union corn imports during the 2022/23 marketing year are more than doubling last year’s pace so far, with 330.3 million bushels through October 16, per the latest data from the European Commission.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 241,120 contracts, moving moderately above Monday’s final count of 155,787.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed other grains lower on a round of technical selling partly triggered by seasonal harvest pressure, incurring double-digit losses by the close. November futures dropped 13.25 cents to $13.72, with January futures down 11.25 cents to $13.8150.
Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday but did trend 2 cents higher at an Ohio elevator today.
Soybean conditions held steady this past week, with 57% of the crop still rated in good-to-excellent condition through Sunday. Another 28% is rated fair, with the remaining 15% rated poor or very poor.
Physiologically, nearly all (96%) of the crop is now dropping leaves, up from 91% a week ago and ahead of the prior five-year average of 94%. Harvest progress jumped from 44% last week to 63%. That makes this season’s harvest faster than both 2021’s pace of 58% as well as the prior five-year average of 52%.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s soybean exports to reach 138.4 million bushels in October, which is slightly higher than its prior forecast from a week ago. Brazilian soymeal exports may come in at 2.038 million metric tons this month.
European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have reached 120.9 million bushels through October 16, which is slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also trending below year-ago levels, with 4.56 million metric tons.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 240,163 contracts, trending 13% higher than Monday’s final count of 212,201.
Wheat
Wheat prices suffered a modest to moderate setback, mostly on general demand concerns as U.S. grain is uncompetitive for some overseas buyers. December Chicago SRW futures fell 9.75 cents to $8.5125, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 6 cents to $9.46, and December MGEX spring wheat futures eased 0.25 cents to $9.55.
The 2022/23 winter wheat crop is still getting planted. Progress moved from 55% a week ago up to 69% as of Sunday. That mirror’s 2021’s pace and is slightly ahead of the prior five-year average of 68%.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year reached 382.5 million bushels through October 16, which is fractionally below last year’s pace so far. EU barley exports are significantly trailing last year’s pace, with 106.6 million bushels.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 3.6 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 36% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment between November 21 and December 20.
South Korea purchased 1.7 million bushels of milling wheat from the United States in an international tender that closed earlier today. Additional details regarding shipment timing were not immediately available.
Jordan purchased 2.2 million bushels of hard milling wheat from optional origins in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment during the first half of March.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 70,761 CBOT contracts, down slightly from Monday’s final tally of 71,311.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
683.75
674.5
681
-1.75
23-Mar
690
680.25
687
-2.25
Soybeans
22-Nov
1390
1364.25
1372
-13.25
23-Jan
1397
1372.75
1382
-11.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Dec
405.9
395.1
397.7
-7.7
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Dec
66.59
64.6
66.52
1.54
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
866
832.75
849.5
-9.75
23-Mar
883.75
851.5
867.75
-9.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
957.5
929
944.5
-6
23-Mar
956
927.25
942.5
-7
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
959.75
938.25
956
-0.25
23-Mar
966.5
947
963
-0.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
148.5
147.75
148.5
0.625
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
178.2
176.45
177.825
1.425
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
87.875
85.675
87.725
1.75
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Nov
86.51
82.09
82.74
-2.72
Diesel
22-Nov
4.1535
3.9624
3.9761
-0.1091
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.6239
2.4905
2.5477
-0.0454
Natural Gas
22-Dec
6.531
6.15
6.231
-0.248
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
112.35
111.63
112.08
0.172
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1660.4
1647
1653
-4
Copper
22-Oct
3.4425
3.39
3.396
-0.0595
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/14)
DAP Tampa-index
695.0
-17.5
DAP-New Orleans
799.2
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
666.9
-8.27
Urea-Middle East
757.5
27.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
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