Afternoon report: Soybeans also sink lower, while wheat firms on Wednesday
Grain prices were mixed in midweek trading. Corn and soybean futures started today’s session with overnight gains that evaporated later in the day after some profit-takers entered the fray. Corn closed with losses of around 0.75%, while soybeans fell 1.25%. Wheat made significant inroads, meantime, after Russia made some disparaging remarks about the current Black Sea shipping deal it brokered with Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations.
Rainfall will be variable across the central U.S. for the next several days. South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin have the best chance to pick up the largest amounts between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather building in the Northern Plains between September 14 and December 20, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for most of the U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 445 points higher in afternoon trading to 31,588 as falling energy prices eased ongoing inflation concerns. Energy futures saw some significant cuts on global demand concerns, with crude oil spilling 5.5% lower to $82 per barrel. Gasoline dropped 4.5%, while diesel held mostly steady. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+6,000) and CBOT wheat (+3,000) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-9,000), soymeal (-4,500) and soyoil (-5,000).
Corn
Corn prices attempted to move higher again on Wednesday but ended up succumbing to some profit-taking and finishing the session around 0.75% lower. September futures dropped 4 cents to $6.7675, with December futures down 5.75 cents to $6.7025.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Wednesday after climbing 10 to 38 cents higher at two processors while sliding 2 to 5 cents lower at three other Midwestern locations today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 10.1 million bushels of corn to Mexico. Of the total, 88% is for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1. The remainder is for delivery in 2023/24.
Corn quality held mostly steady last week, with 54% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through September 4. The G/E split did shift slightly, moving from 42/12 last week to 43/11. Another 27% of the crop was rated fair (unchanged from last week), with the remining 19% rated poor or very poor (also unchanged from last week).
Physiologically, 92% of the crop has reached the dough stage, up from 86% a week ago. Sixty-three percent is now dented, up from 46% last week. And 15% is now fully mature, up from 8% a week ago. All three maturity categories are running slightly behind the prior five-year average.
Brazil’s Anec expects to see the country’s corn exports reach 248.4 million bushels in September, which would jump 148% above year-ago results, if realized.
South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in late December.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 211,145 contracts, tracking 17% above Tuesday’s final count of 179,987.
Soybeans
Soybean prices sputtered despite testing moderate overnight gains after a round of technical selling and profit-taking led to double-digit losses by the close. September futures lost 23.25 cents to $14.6675, with November futures down 17.75 cents to $13.81.
Soybean basis bids tumbled 30 cents lower at two Midwestern processors while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. today.
Soybean quality ratings were mostly stable last week, with 57% rated in good-to-excellent condition. As with corn, ratings saw a slight G/E shift, moving from 46/11 a week ago to 47/10 through September 4. Another 29% of the crop is rated fair (down a point from last week), with the remaining 14% rated poor or very poor (up a point from last week).
Physiologically, 94% of the crop is now setting pods, up from 91% a week ago and two points behind the prior five-year average of 96%. And 10% is dropping leaves, up from 4% a week ago and four points below the prior five-year average of 14%.
Canadian canola stocks through the end of July have tumbled nearly 51% lower from year-ago totals to 39.7 million bushels, according to Statistics Canada data released this morning. Canada is the world’s top canola exporter, with sales topping $5.2 billion in 2020.
China’s soybean imports in August slumped nearly 25% lower year-over-year to 263.5 million bushels. That was the lowest August tally since 2014. Analysts attributed the drop to poor crush margins and waning soymeal demand for hog production. Cumulative soybean imports in 2022 are down 8.6% from a year ago, with 2.253 billion bushels. China is by far the world’s No. 1 soybean importer.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports in September will reach 143.9 million bushels. That would be a year-over-year decrease of around 17%, if realized. Brazilian soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.048 million metric tons this month.
How do your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other operations in the U.S.? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 152,653 contracts, moving moderately ahead of Tuesday’s final count of 126,469.
Wheat
Wheat prices made solid inroads amid rising turmoil in the Black Sea region as Russia lobs new accusations regarding Ukrainian grain exports (more on that below). December Chicago SRW futures rose 24 cents to $8.41, December Kansas City HRW futures gained 16.5 cents to $8.9850, and December MGEX spring wheat futures added 11.25 cents to $9.01.
USDA has begun to track winter wheat planting progress for the 2022/23 season, with nine of the top 18 production states showing measurable progress so far. That’s a bit behind 2021’s pace of 5% but mirrors the prior five-year average.
The spring wheat harvest advanced more quickly than expected, meantime, reaching 71% through Sunday versus the average trade guess of 67%. This year’s pace is still well behind 2021’s mark of 94% along with the prior five-year average of 83%.
Russian president Vladamir Putin is lobbing uncited accusations that only 2 of Ukraine’s 87 shipments since the beginning of August were sent to “the poorest developing countries,” adding that the UN-brokered export deal is “just a scam” and expressed his intentions to revise the current terms of that deal. A Ukrainian spokesperson dismissed Putin’s statements as “unexpected and groundless.”
According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, the country’s total wheat stocks through July 31 have spilled 38% lower to 136 million bushels after struggling through widespread drought last season.
Japan hopes to purchase 2.6 million bushels of feed wheat and 1.8 million bushels of feed barley in a simultaneous buy-and-sell auction that will occur on September 14. The grain is for arrival in late February.
South Korea purchased 2.0 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from Australia, in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between January 10 and February 5.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 120,080 CBOT contracts, which more than doubled Tuesday’s final count of 51,938.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
690
675.25
676.75
-4
22-Dec
688
669
671
-5.75
Soybeans
22-Sep
1503.75
1472.5
1466.75
-23.25
22-Nov
1432.25
1380.75
1383.5
-17.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
428.2
407.9
415
3.8
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
64.98
63.41
63.68
-1.31
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
855
802.25
826.5
26.5
22-Dec
873.5
809.25
844.25
24
KC Wheat
22-Sep
931
909.75
901.5
30.75
22-Dec
934
874
901.5
16.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
880
882.25
22-Dec
930
880
900
11.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
145.5
144.15
144.225
-0.825
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
185.925
183.75
183.925
-2.175
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
85.225
83.5
83.525
0.025
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
87.76
81.7
81.95
-4.93
Diesel
22-Oct
3.6234
3.4959
3.5774
0.0036
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.4672
2.3003
2.306
-0.1099
Natural Gas
22-Nov
8.355
7.828
7.888
-0.324
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
110.785
109.62
109.79
-0.414
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1721
1692.5
1715.2
14.8
Copper
22-Sep
3.463
3.418
3.4385
-0.0305
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/02)
DAP Tampa-index
820.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
833.9
18.19
Urea-New Orleans
766.1
82.67
Urea-Middle East
863.0
68.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
531.9
55.12
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