Corn up 4-7 cents
Soybeans mixed; Soymeal mixed; Soyoil down $0.49/lb
Chicago wheat up 11-13 cents; Kansas City wheat up 6-7 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 4-9 cents
*Prices as of 6:45am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
My first Feedback from the Field column of the season is here! But – spoiler alert – we only had two respondents over the past few weeks report any meaningful corn planting activity and those responses both came from states far outside the Corn Belt.
Wheat conditions, particularly for white wheat crops in the Pacific Northwest, face significant headwinds this season which could trigger higher prices in the coming weeks. Overall, the cool and excessively wet or dry weather faced by grower so far this spring has done little to instill farmer confidence in the 2022 growing season.
Corn
Planting delays and more cool and wet weather for the Midwest helped boost corn prices $0.03-$0.07/bushel overnight, extending yesterday’s 10-year highs during the overnight trading session. More bullish news today – hopefully from the weekly export sales report – could help push corn prices past the life-of-contract high of $8.3125/bushel.
“We can’t lose acres and we can’t lose yield,” John Zanker, market analyst at Risk Management Commodities in Indiana, told Reuters yesterday afternoon. As cool and wet weather persists in the Midwest, it is more likely that corn planting will be pushed outside the ideal window for optimal yields. With fewer acres expected to be planted anyway, this latest hit to yield forecasts will further tighten global corn supplies amid the Black Sea conflict.
Dryness in Brazil, impacting safrina corn crops, also lent a hand to this morning’s price rally in the corn market.
Weekly ethanol production data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in yesterday’s Petroleum Inventory Status report saw weekly output bounce back from last week’s 29-week low, steadying at 963,000 barrels/day of output.
Ethanol producers continue to juggle shifting consumer preferences to high fuel costs as well as rising corn input costs. Basis offerings at ethanol plants across the Midwest largely widened yesterday, suggesting that next week’s report may see more bullish output volumes.
Consumer fuel demand through the week ending April 22 eased back 1.5% to 8.7 million barrels/day as consumers restrict usage amid high fuel prices. But blending rates for the more cheaply produced ethanol additive continues to help limit price increases. Ethanol volumes blended into gasoline by refiners and blenders has held steady in the 885,000 – 887,000 barrel/day range for the past three weeks.
Soybeans
Soybean prices were largely flat this morning, with nearby contracts $0.01-$0.02/bushel lower and new crop contracts up $0.01-$0.02/bushel. The soyoil rally cooled off after notching a new life-of-contract high yesterday on continued friction from Indonesia’s palm oil ban and smaller forecasted Canadian canola acres.
Indonesia has flip-flopped on its palm oil export ban over the past few days. At first, all palm oil products were going to be banned. Then on Tuesday President Joko Widodo said that only refined, bleached, and deodorized palm olein shipments would be halted to ensure domestic food availability and lower consumer prices.
But the Indonesian government once again reversed its stance yesterday, widening the ban to include crude and refined palm oil.
“Once domestic needs have been met, of course I will lift the export ban because I know the country needs taxes,…foreign exchange,…a trade balance surplus, but meeting the people’s basic needs is a more important priority,” President Joko Widodo said.
Soyoil futures in Chicago rallied to close at a record high of $87.80/lb in yesterday’s trading session. Profit takers swooped in overnight, sending nearby contracts about $0.60/lb lower at last glance.
Wheat
Dry weather continues to plague the Plains, further threatening winter wheat yields and condition ratings. Chicago wheat futures moved $0.12-$0.13/bushel higher on the news while Kansas City futures posted a $0.05-$0.07/bushel gain on the prospects. Showers in the Northern Plains will further extend spring wheat planting, sending Minneapolis futures $0.04-$0.09/bushel higher this morning.
Weather
Scattered showers are forecast across the Upper Plains and Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. The precipitation will likely halt any planting progress made earlier this week.
The showers are expected to intensify and linger in the region through Saturday. Up to an inch and a half of accumulation is expected over the next 24 hours.
Financials
S&P 500 futures rose 64.5 points (1.54%) to $4,244.75 this morning following a strong rally in Facebook shares as well as the dollar.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
My first Feedback from the Field column of the season! Spoiler alert – little to no planting progress has been made in the Corn Belt and winter wheat is looking rough.
Bryce Knorr points out that rising interest rates could slow potential expansion plans for U.S. farmers.
Executive editor Mike Wilson explores the economic benefits of microbials to help offset the pain of surging nitrogen fertilizer costs.
Advance Trading’s Larry Shonkwiler envisions high price volatility for corn in the last third of the 2021/22 marketing year, especially as export prospects remain uncertain.
Senior editor Ben Potter digs into the latest NOAA forecasts for spring planting prospects.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 4/27/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.0475
7.975
8.025
-0.0075
-0.09%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.0325
7.955
8.0125
-0.0025
-0.03%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.6025
7.5475
7.5975
-0.005
-0.07%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.45
7.385
7.4375
0.0025
0.03%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4825
7.43
7.47
0
0.00%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.5
7.445
7.4875
0
0.00%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4725
7.4175
7.4625
0.0025
0.03%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.2675
17
17.225
0.1725
1.01%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.91
16.655
16.8625
0.145
0.87%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.3575
16.135
16.3225
0.13
0.80%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.605
15.3625
15.5625
0.1425
0.92%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.1975
14.935
15.165
0.1375
0.91%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.21
14.9575
15.195
0.15
1.00%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.07
14.8375
15.03
0.1025
0.69%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.055
14.875
15.035
0.11
0.74%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.04
14.9475
15.04
0.11
0.74%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
88.51
84.83
87.48
2.19
2.57%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
85.77
82.05
84.54
2.1
2.55%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
446.9
444.1
445.9
1.1
0.25%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
438.8
435.8
437.6
0.6
0.14%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
430.2
427.4
429.3
1
0.23%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
421
417.7
419.1
0.6
0.14%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
410.8
407.3
408.7
-0.3
-0.07%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.87
10.6775
10.8
-0.0325
-0.30%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.975
10.7825
10.9
-0.05
-0.46%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.9525
10.7675
10.875
-0.05
-0.46%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.9
10.725
10.825
-0.045
-0.41%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.8725
10.715
10.855
0.0075
0.07%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.59
11.42
11.52
-0.0575
-0.50%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.6475
11.4625
11.58
-0.065
-0.56%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.6375
11.47
11.5725
-0.0675
-0.58%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.5975
11.44
11.53
-0.07
-0.60%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.555
11.42
11.555
0.0125
0.11%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.8325
11.79
11.795
-0.0675
-0.57%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.8925
11.8025
11.81
-0.07
-0.59%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.7625
11.67
11.6975
-0.065
-0.55%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.7375
11.65
11.66
-0.0775
-0.66%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
11.6825
0
0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
102.79
102.24
102.705
0.387
0.38%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
102.99
101.38
101.88
0.18
0.18%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
101.68
100.1
100.59
0.18
0.18%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.45
4.345
4.375
-0.0929
-2.08%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.8561
3.7624
3.7952
-0.0221
-0.58%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.3895
3.3511
3.3526
0.0138
0.41%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.3586
3.3209
3.3245
0.0135
0.41%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
156.2
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
160.725
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
140
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
136.25
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
105.2
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
111.175
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.31
#N/A
24.31
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.7
24.64
24.64
-0.06
-0.24%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.74
24.68
24.68
0.04
0.16%
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Morning report: Planting delays and more cool and wet forecasts push May 2022 corn futures contract close to new heights. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
