Morning report: New crop futures reach another life-of-contract high while soybeans and wheat all rise on worrisome U.S. springtime weather conditions. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn up 5-8 cents
Soybeans up 5-10 cents; Soymeal down $1.90/ton; Soyoil up $0.90/lb
Chicago wheat up 17-18 cents; Kansas City wheat up 14-16 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 22-27 cents
*Prices as of 6:50am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
The nearby May 2022 Chicago corn futures contract notched a 10-year high overnight as cool and wet weather across the Midwest continues to stall planting progress and reduces the likelihood of U.S. farmers increasing corn acreage this spring amid soaring global corn demand and increasingly tight supplies.
May 2022 futures prices edged $0.075/bushel higher at last glance to $7.9775/bushel – just shy of the $8/bushel benchmark on the aforementioned factors constraining global corn trading.
Meanwhile, new crop futures (the December 2022) contract posted yet another life-of-contract high in the early morning hours, rising $0.0775/bushel to $7.4525/bushel, offering lucrative rewards to growers looking to price 2022 crops before they are even in the ground.
Spring planting progress in Ukraine and continued war activity in the region added upward price pressure to both the corn and wheat complexes this morning. “The situation in Russia and Ukraine is (a) stalemate,” analysts at Zhongzhou Futures in China said in a note, according to Reuters. “Supply concerns still exist (while) corn prices fluctuate at high levels.”
Ukraine’s planting campaign has already been riddled with war-related challenges. Fuel and fertilizer shortages compounded the pain. Ukrainian agricultural consultancy APK-Inform expects Ukraine will harvest 38.9 million tonnes of grain this year – a 55% decrease from the 2021 harvest.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry issued several revisions to 2022 sowing forecasts, though the numbers were highly dependent upon clearing Russian land mines from fields and did not provide specific crop allocations. The latest forecast for spring crops, issued last Friday, of 34.6 million acres came in at 17% below spring acreage planted in the previous year.
Some government estimates in late March forecasted a 39% drop in Ukrainian corn acreage this year to 8.2 million acres. Official acreage estimates are not likely to be forecasted until the war has stabilized. Export challenges have reduced the domestic demand for more corn acres as Ukrainian farmers attempt to plant more small grains to ensure domestic food availability.
Soybeans
Even with somewhat uneven March 2022 domestic soybean crush rates announced last Friday, domestic usage rates continue to compete with export markets, allowing Chicago soybean futures to gain $0.05-$0.11/bushel overnight.
The gains pushed nearby May 2022 soybean futures contracts within striking distance of the $17/bushel benchmark today while new crop November 2022 futures prices broke comfortably above the $15/bushel benchmark during the overnight trade.
Gains were capped by an end to the Argentine truckers’ strike late last week, which had previously halted all grain movement in Argentina – the world’s top soymeal exporter.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released March 2022 crush data on Friday and even though the volume came in below average expectations, it still set a record for the largest March crush on record.
In March 2022, NOPA members crushed 181.8 million bushels of soybeans. The pre-report analyst guesses ranged between 179.2 million – 186.0 million bushels with an average estimate of 182.0 million bushels.
Steady livestock demand for soymeal supplies and plentiful soybean supplies on hand kept crush margins at profitable levels, allowing crush facilities to operate at a steady clip through March. April crush rates are historically lower than March rates, likely due to spring maintenance schedules.
However, bountiful countrywide supplies and demand competition from the export market could keep crush facilities running at high capacities over the next couple months. NOPA members handle about 95% of all soybean volumes destined for crush facilities in the U.S.
Wheat
Wheat prices rose $0.17-$0.26/bushel overnight as continued concerns about Russia’s unprovoked occupation of Ukraine kept global supply worries top of mind for wheat traders. Chicago futures surged back past the $11/bushel benchmark overnight while nearby futures prices for Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat hovered around the $11.70/bushel benchmark.
If today’s Crop Progress report from USDA continues to show weakened condition ratings for the U.S. winter wheat crop, as well as planting delays for spring wheat crops in North Dakota and Minnesota, the bullish run could continue for U.S. wheat prices.
That’s good news for U.S. producers, but it will likely keep global buyer priced out of U.S. wheat markets, sending them elsewhere for their desired wheat supplies. A stronger dollar will also likely keep U.S. exports an unattractive option for global buyers.
As Russia’s rouble stabilizes following its initial collapse in the early days of the Ukrainian conflict, Russian wheat prices are rising, making its wheat supplies less competitive against other top international suppliers.
“Exports are active, but there are some signs of weakening,” Dmitry Rylko, the head of the IKAR agriculture consultancy, told Reuters. “There are new deals, but not too many, and we see a very limited number of countries: Turkey as prime destination, followed by Iran and Egypt.”
This is significant because Egypt and Turkey are expected to be the world’s largest and fourth largest, respectively, wheat buyers in the 2021/22 marketing year.
As of Friday, prices for wheat to be loaded in May at Black Sea terminals had risen to $10.07/bushel for FOB pricing, up $0.05/bushel from the previous week. Agricultural consultancy Sovecon estimated Russian grain exports rose by nearly 58% during that same time frame to 630,000 metric tonnes (MT) per week.
Weather
Clear skies over the Plains today will help advance spring sowing activity in the region today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. However, cooler temperatures and a chance of snow in the Great Lakes region and persistent rains in the Eastern Corn Belt will likely limit planting activity in the heart of Corn Country today.
Mostly clear skies across the Heartland tomorrow will be short-lived as a storm system developing in the Northern Rockies collides with a rain system over the Southern Plains. That will trigger showers across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday, likely halting any planting activity in the region.
Temperatures in the Upper Midwest continue to hover below the ideal 50-degree benchmark, meaning that cool soils will not likely have a chance to warm up anytime soon, further delaying planting progress.
Financials
S&P 500 futures edged 11 points (0.25%) lower this morning to $4,376.50 at last glance as markets speculate with somewhat cautious intentions that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its plan to increase interest rates amid soaring inflation. The Federal Reserve’s next chance to increase the all-important Federal Funds rate will likely come at the May 3-4 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Naomi Blohm reminds growers that ending stocks for nine grain and oilseed commodities remain shockingly low – a bullish sign for commodity prices.
Bryce Knorr has the latest insights into the fertilizer market and a few key reasons why high fertilizer prices are likely to stick around.
Here are six tips to lower your farm’s fuel bill during planting season this spring.
Check out our latest Farm Progress 365 webinar sessions for the latest risk management and weather tips!
Commstock’s Matthew Kruse thinks that Ukrainian exports could pick up pre-war loading paces as soon as the Russians leave in a recent Ag Marketing IQ column.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 4/18/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.005
7.9025
7.985
0.0825
1.04%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.935
7.8375
7.91
0.0725
0.93%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.5825
7.49
7.57
0.0825
1.10%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4425
7.37
7.4375
0.085
1.16%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.46
7.3875
7.46
0.0875
1.19%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4575
7.3825
7.4575
0.08
1.08%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4125
7.345
7.405
0.07
0.95%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.9825
16.885
16.9525
0.13
0.77%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.8175
16.69
16.7575
0.105
0.63%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.4
16.29
16.3475
0.1025
0.63%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.585
15.5
15.535
0.08
0.52%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.135
15.035
15.075
0.06
0.40%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.125
15.04
15.0775
0.0675
0.45%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.9125
14.8375
14.88
0.06
0.40%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.86
14.805
14.84
0.05
0.34%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.855
14.8
14.8
0.01
0.07%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
80.55
79.5
79.93
1.02
1.29%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
78.27
77.31
77.71
0.82
1.07%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
464.5
458.5
461.1
-0.3
-0.07%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
459
452.8
455.4
-0.3
-0.07%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
448.2
443.9
445.8
1.1
0.25%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
435.5
431.6
433.6
2
0.46%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
423
419.6
421.3
1.4
0.33%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.24
10.9825
11.1775
0.2125
1.94%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.3275
11.0925
11.275
0.23
2.08%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.275
11.065
11.23
0.22
2.00%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.1825
10.98
11.15
0.2125
1.94%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.0775
10.93
11.0575
0.2
1.84%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.78
11.54
11.7275
0.1875
1.62%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.8225
11.6
11.7675
0.195
1.69%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.785
11.55
11.7375
0.1875
1.62%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.71
11.4975
11.68
0.1825
1.59%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.6125
11.56
11.6125
0.1725
1.51%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.7375
11.3975
11.6875
0.2425
2.12%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.7625
11.4675
11.71
0.2425
2.11%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.59
11.34
11.5525
0.2125
1.87%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.5925
11.3875
11.56
0.185
1.63%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.545
#N/A
11.345
0
0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
100.755
100.45
100.595
0.269
0.27%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
108.55
106
106.97
0.02
0.02%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
108.01
105.43
106.39
0.01
0.01%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.97
3.8259
3.852
-0.0028
-0.07%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.7474
3.6122
3.6349
-0.0093
-0.26%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.4357
3.3369
3.3652
-0.0162
-0.48%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.4162
3.3177
3.3422
-0.0184
-0.55%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
158.2
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
161.775
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
140.675
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
136.425
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
112.75
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
118.475
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.33
#N/A
24.33
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.4
25.2
25.4
-0.06
-0.24%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.34
25.34
25.34
0.03
0.12%
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