Afternoon report: Soybeans and spring wheat also moves higher, with winter wheat down moderately.
The last time corn prices were this high, the country was suffering through a once-in-a-generation drought in the summer of 2012. But war in Ukraine and a sluggish planting pace in the U.S. helped extend the rally and raise prices another 1.75% to reach the highest level in a decade. Soybean prices were also firm, rising more than 1.25 higher today. Wheat prices were mixed, meantime, after some uneven technical maneuvering.
Another round of wet weather will arrive in parts of the Plains and Midwest between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The Dakotas, Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa and Missouri are likely to see the largest totals during this time. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the central U.S. between May 4 and May 10, with seasonally cool weather likely for the Great Plains region.
On Wall St., the volatile Dow climbed 339 points higher in afternoon trading to 33,579 after tumbling more than 800 points on Tuesday. Some strong Q1 corporate earnings reports helped install some investor sentiment today. Energy futures also moved higher, with crude oil up more than 0.5% to reach $102 per barrel. Nearby diesel contracts jumped nearly 5% higher this afternoon, with gasoline up around 4%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+2,000), soybeans (+2,000), soyoil (+5,000) and CBOT wheat (+10,000) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-5,000).
NOTE: CME announced earlier this week that it will change daily price limits for several key commodities, effective May 2. That includes:
Corn = 50 cents (up from 35 cents)
Soybeans = 115 cents (up from 90 cents)
CBOT and KC wheat = 70 cents (down from 85 cents)
Corn
Corn prices rose 1.75% higher on a round of technical buying after an already slow start to the 2022 season could see further delays from ample wet weather in the mid-range forecasts. The war in Ukraine continues to lend plenty of price support as well. May futures gained 14.75 cents to $8.18, with July futures up 13 cents to $8.1450.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm after rising 2 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and 3 cents higher at an Iowa ethanol plant on Wednesday.
Ethanol production for the week ending April 22 made some modest improvements, but still came in with a relatively disappointing daily average of 963,000 barrels. That’s the third consecutive week that production failed to meet the 1-million-barrel daily benchmark. Stocks slid another 2% lower to land at a 14-week low.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s weekly export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 62.5 million and 104.7 million bushels for the week ending April 21.
The latest responses to Feedback from the Field show further evidence that farmers are off to the slowest start in nearly a decade. “Looks like mid-May start – maybe,” said a Minnesota corn grower in the Red River Valley. “Lots of cool damp weather here, so little field work so far but no one is too worried since it has been so cool,” echoed a Northwestern Iowa grower. Catch up on more farmer anecdotes here, and click this link to take our survey and share updates about your farm’s progress as the season progresses.
Argentine farmers have sold almost 890 million bushels of their 2021/22 corn crop through April 20, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. That’s consistent with year-ago results. Argentina is the world’s No. 2 corn exporter.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 289,550 contracts, moving slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 318,161.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed surging soyoil prices higher, with spillover strength from corn lending additional support. May futures climbed 23.75 cents to $17.29, with July futures up 22.5 cents to $16.9425. Soyoil prices reached all-time highs after jumping another 3% higher today. Soymeal prices firmed nearly 1.5%.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Wednesday but did firm 2 cents higher at an Ohio elevator today.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 18.4 million and 57.0 million bushels for the week ending April 21. Analysts also anticipate seeing soymeal sales come in between 100,000 and 300,000 metric tons, plus up to 34,000 MT of soyoil sales.
South Korean importers purchased 119,000 metric tons of soymeal in private deals that closed earlier this week. The grain is for shipment starting in July, depending on origin, and is for arrival by September.
Argentina’s soybean sales for the 2021/22 crop have reached 499.7 million bushels through April 20, per the country’s agriculture ministry. That’s trending 12.3% below last year’s pace so far.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 181,275 contracts, slipping slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 190,934.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower amid some uneven technical maneuvering today. Winter wheat contracts were subject to some profit-taking, while spring wheat contracts firmed on the prospect of planting delays this season. May Chicago SRW futures faded 4 cents to $10.7925, May Kansas City HRW futures dropped 7.5 cents to $11.5025, and May MGEX spring wheat futures rose 13.25 cents to $11.9950.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 5.5 million and 21.1 million bushels for the week ending April 21.
A Russian missile strike on a key bridge in Ukraine’s Odessa region puts grain exports in further jeopardy as it disrupts a major railway route to the country’s ports on Danube. “The railway branch suffered, of course. Effect is minus 150 or more wagons/containers with metal and grain per day, according to an official from Ukraine’s agriculture ministry.
Refinitiv Commodities Research estimates that Russia’s 2022/23 wheat production potential is at 3.193 billion bushels, citing favorable weather conditions. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
Algeria purchased as much as 9.2 million bushels of durum wheat from optional origins in a tender that closed on Tuesday. Mexico is thought to have been the primary supplier. The grain is for shipment in May and June.
Jordan again passed on all offers in its international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat that closed earlier today. The country will likely issue a tender for a similar amount for expiration on May 11.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 40,268 CBOT contracts, tracking moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 63,199.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
820.25
797.5
815.5
14.75
22-Jul
818.5
795.5
812.25
13
Soybeans
22-May
1735.5
1700
1726.5
23.75
22-Jul
1698
1665.5
1692.75
22.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
447.9
429
441
4.2
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
85.77
82.05
84.72
2.43
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1087
1067.75
1080
-4
22-Jul
1097.5
1078.25
1091.25
-3.75
KC Wheat
22-May
1159
1141.75
1148.25
-7.5
22-Jul
1165.25
1146.25
1154
-9
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1199.75
1177.5
1198.75
13.25
22-Jul
1198
1177.25
1194.75
7.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140.25
138.025
138.025
-1.975
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
161.225
157.2
157.2
-3.525
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
112.275
109.975
110.125
-1.05
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
102.99
99.8
101.76
0.06
Diesel
22-May
4.7099
4.345
4.6644
0.1965
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.478
3.3251
3.4351
0.0963
Natural Gas
22-Jun
7.524
6.956
7.327
0.349
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
103.29
102.24
102.93
0.612
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1908.1
1881.6
1888.6
-12.9
Copper
22-Apr
4.446
4.4425
4.4425
0.0025
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/15)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
1,052.7
0
Urea-New Orleans
854.3
-33.07
Urea-Middle East
995.0
-125
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
694.5
-5.51
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