Afternoon report: Soybeans and wheat also finish Tuesday’s session significantly higher.
Grain prices were red-hot again on Tuesday, as news of export disruptions and stoppages in the Black Sea region continues to fuel the latest rally. Corn and wheat prices finished the session with limit-up gains. Soybeans faced a more complicated path, enduring a choppy session to climb another 3% higher today.
Additional rain and snow is possible for parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between Wednesday and Saturday, while areas farther south will remain completely dry, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally cold weather for most areas west of the Mississippi River between March 8 and March 14, with wetter-than-normal conditions likely for most of the country.
Wall St. spent another session in the red, with the Dow sputtering 620 points lower to 33,272 in afternoon trading as investors remain wary amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, especially as a military convoy moves closer to the capital of Kyiv. Energy futures continue to surge higher, with crude oil jumping 8% higher to move above $104 per barrel. Diesel was also up nearly 8%, with gasoline trending 5.5% higher this afternoon. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were significant buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+32,500), soybeans (+21,500), soymeal (+3,500), soyoil (+13,500) and CBOT wheat (+28,000).
Corn
Corn prices rocketed higher again on Tuesday on supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine, which account for nearly 20% of the world’s corn exports. Prices closed above $7 per bushel for the first time since last summer. March futures climbed 42.25 cents to $7.3975, with May futures up 35 cents to $7.2575.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak on Tuesday after falling 3 to 7 cents lower across five Midwestern locations. An Ohio elevator bucked the overall trend after rising 9 cents higher today.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2021/22 marketing year are tracking slightly below last year’s pace after reaching 431.5 million bushels through February 27. Worries abound over closures at Ukrainian ports – Ukraine has supplied more than half (54%) of EU corn imports so far this marketing year.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn to be sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa that closes on Thursday. The grain is for shipment in May and June. Grain buyers have the difficult decision of making purchases while prices are historically high or waiting to see what market moves lie ahead.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a significant driver of the latest grain rally, has caused a surge in energy prices and more. Farm Futures has been generating a lot of fresh content that is taking a closer look at the situation. Click here and here for our latest analysis.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 403,901 contracts, moving just ahead of Monday’s final count of 396,799.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed corn and wheat higher and drew further support from export optimism after another large sale to China was reported this morning. Tuesday’s session was somewhat choppy, but prices ultimately climbed 3% higher by the close. March futures rose 61.25 cents to $17.0550, with May futures up 51.25 cents to $16.88.
Soybean basis bids dipped a penny lower at an Ohio elevator and trended 2 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal while holding steady at other Midwestern locations on Tuesday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 9.7 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins September 1.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 320 million bushels through February 27. That’s moderately below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also down moderately year-over-year, with 10.60 million metric tons since last July.
The U.S. EPA has taken the next step toward discontinuing the use of chlorpyrifos by revoking all tolerances of the crop chemical. “This clears the way for a court to decide whether to allow continued use of the insecticide,” according to Farm Futures policy editor Jacqui Fatka. “Previously, chlorpyrifos was used for a large variety of agricultural uses, including soybeans, fruit and nut trees, broccoli, cauliflower and other row crops.” Click here to learn more.
Farmer sentiment is back on the rise, based on the latest readings from the Ag Economy Barometer from Purdue University / CME Group. However, the February score of 125 (anything over 100 is considered positive) is still well below readings from a year ago as farmers wrestle with rising input and fuel costs. “These survey responses suggest that concerns about the spike in production costs and supply chain issues continue to mostly outweigh the impact of the commodity price rally that’s been underway this winter,” according to Purdue’s James Mintert. Click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 181,307 contracts, slipping slightly below Monday’s final count of 199,302.
Wheat
Wheat prices remained red-hot on Tuesday, as Russia and Ukraine combined account for nearly a third of total global wheat sales and currently face substantial supply chain issues. Gains today ranged between 5% and 8%, with Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts now trading over $10 per bushel. March Chicago SRW futures jumped 76.5 cents to $10.0450, March Kansas City HRW futures climbed 60 cents to $10.1425, and March MGEX spring wheat futures rose 46.5 cents to $10.3550.
European Union soft wheat exports for the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 657.3 million bushels through February 27, which is slightly behind last year’s pace of 670.2 million bushels. EU barley exports are also tracking slightly lower year-over-year, with 237.5 million bushels.
Egypt cancelled its most recent tender to purchase wheat after prices rose significantly higher this past week. The world’s No. 1 wheat buyer has now cancelled two tenders since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 3.1 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States that closes on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment between April 21 and May 20.
Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 2.8 million bushels of durum wheat from optional origins that closes on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment starting in late March or early April, depending on origin.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 148,768 CBOT contracts, trending 28% lower than Monday’s final count of 207,565.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Mar
744.25
699.75
739.75
42.25
22-May
725.75
692.75
725.75
35
Soybeans
22-Mar
1709
1648.25
1705.5
61.25
22-May
1697.5
1641.5
1690
51.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-May
458.6
448
454.3
8.2
Soyoil cents/lb
22-May
76.48
72.7
76.21
3.63
Wheat $/bushel
22-Mar
1004.5
951
1001.75
76.5
22-May
984
932.25
984
50
KC Wheat
22-Mar
1014.25
983.5
1012
60
22-May
1003
951.25
1003
50
MPLS Wheat
22-Mar
1040.5
979.25
1054
46.5
22-May
1054
986.5
1053.75
60
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
142.35
140.45
140.9
-0.525
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
161.95
159.15
160.175
-1.825
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Apr
111.425
107.45
110.9
3.25
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
106.78
95.32
104.12
8.4
Diesel
22-Apr
3.2112
2.9299
3.162
0.2307
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.161
2.9432
3.1054
0.1729
Natural Gas
22-May
4.649
4.361
4.56
0.14
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Mar
97.575
96.625
97.425
0.731
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
1945.5
1903
1939.4
40
Copper
22-Mar
4.588
4.481
4.5815
0.137
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 02/25)
DAP Tampa-index
842.5
7.5
DAP-New Orleans
857.1
19.29
Urea-New Orleans
683.4
99.21
Urea-Middle East
665.0
65
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
606.3
0
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