Corn up 8-13 cents
Soybeans up 8-14 cents; Soymeal up $4.70/ton; Soyoil up $0.54/lb
Chicago wheat up 10-614 cents; Kansas City wheat up 12-13 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 1 cent
*Prices as of 6:50am CDT.
Corn
Higher crude oil prices this morning on investor caution surrounding peace talks between Russia and Ukraine sent corn futures $0.05-$0.09/bushel higher this morning. Ethanol data out today could continue to show expansion signals, though cash corn prices at Midwestern ethanol plants suggested growing production may be facing a plateau as consumer balk at buying high-priced gasoline supplies.
Rains and cooler temperatures across the Heartland this week will likely slow any early planting progress the Midwest had been aspiring for prior to the start of the week. Rains will continue through the beginning of the weekend.
Corn planting progress in Texas is ahead of the five-year average. Weekly crop progress reports from USDA’s state-level National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in Texas reported sowing rates at 51% complete as of Sunday for the Lone Star State, up 5% from the five-year average benchmark.
Planting continues to rapidly progress in the southern Mississippi Delta, where soils are at optimal temperatures for planting. USDA found Louisiana’s 2022 corn crop to be 51% planted as of Sunday. Mississippi and Arkansas reported 5% and 2% sowing rates, respectively, over the same time frame.
Soybeans
Soybean prices also benefited from an uptick in the energy markets this morning. Chicago soybean futures rose $0.7-$0.11/bushel at last glance. Tight supplies due to crop shortfalls in South American continues to help support bullish price action across the entire soy complex this morning.
Wheat
U.S. wheat futures consolidated slightly lower to mixed this morning after yesterday’s losses on hopes of a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Rains in the Plains yesterday and today helped ease falling crop conditions concerns. Overnight concerns about lagging progress in the negotiations helped stem further losses in the wheat complex.
“It is likely to take some time before wheat shipments from the Black Sea region normalise,” Commerzbank said in a note.
As I’ll further analyze later in this report, India has so far been the primary global beneficiary of the Black Sea conflict. Top global wheat importer Egypt is slated to send a delegation to India next week to arrange for a potential wheat trade arrangement between the two countries.
Sources told Reuters that up to 440.9 million bushels of Indian wheat could be shipped to Egypt. “India is in a position to supply top quality wheat to Egypt and meet Egypt’s quality and other requirements,” one of the sources said.
Egypt is scouring the globe for available wheat supplies amid soaring commodity and food costs. So far the North African country has courted suppliers in France, Argentina, India, and the U.S. for available exportable supplies.
India is not historically a major exporter of wheat. But the country’s stocks are in surplus following five years of bumper harvests and its proximity to African and Asian buyers represent a much cheaper alternative to Australian and U.S. wheat supplies.
Weather
Soil temps in my yard cooled off with yesterday’s rains, so I had to put the pause button on my pre-emergent application plan. The system that brough the rains to my yard is headed east today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts.
South Dakota could see a chance of snow as the system creeps into the Northern Plains. It will bring rains to the Upper Midwest, Central and Southern Plains, and virtually everywhere east of the Mississippi River.
The Mississippi Delta and Great Lakes region will see up to two inches of rain over the next 24 hours, which should help alleviate some dryness in Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. Accumulation elsewhere across the Heartland during that time frame will likely range between a tenth to a quarter of an inch.
The system will continue slowly moving east across the country through Friday afternoon.
Financials
The start of yesterday’s peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey between Russia and Ukraine were believed to have started off on the right foot yesterday, but overnight Kremlin officials told the media that so far the negotiations have produced “no breakthrough.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated to reporters overnight that Russian gas exports are likely being slowed as market players navigate changing payment terms from dollars to rubles. Originally there was a March 31 deadline in place from President Vladimir Putin to implement the new payment system, but as Peskov noted overnight, “This process is more drawn out in time technologically.”
This is important for ag markets because it means that grain flows could be slowed out of Russia, which would add bullish pressure to prices. As I noted in yesterday’s report, India has already found legal loopholes in which it could continue to pursue edible oil shipments from Russia, more than doubling its purchases of Russian sunflower oil in the past month compared to all 2021 annual purchases.
That, of course, is not a new tactic for India. The world’s largest edible oil and fertilizer importer snapped up sanctioned Belarusian potash supplies earlier this year, prior to the war breaking out. India has also booked at least 13 million barrels of Russian crude oil over the past month. It only bought 16 million barrels of oil from Russia during the entirety of 2021.
“India will import more items from Russia, especially if it is at a discount,” one senior Indian government official told Reuters.
India is also looking to double up on Russian coal purchases for steel production. Historically, India has been more reliant on trade with China, with whom its bilateral trade receipt totals over $100 billion annually. However, in the wake of Russia’s unprovoked invasion into Ukraine, India is stepping up as one of Russia’s top commodities buyers.
Western countries have not been pleased about India’s willingness to procure discounted Russian imports. The European Union has refused Russia’s request to purchase its energy supplies in denominations of roubles, instead of dollars. The Indian government has called for a rapid conclusion to the Black Sea conflict but has stopped short of further action and will not yet officially condemn Russia’s “special military operation” into Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is slated to begin a two-day trip to India tomorrow following a visit in China today. Indian officials expect a new rupee-rouble payment system for the two countries to be on the agenda to circumvent Western banking sanctions against Russian institutions.
Stock markets slid after Russia’s comments that no progress has yet been made from peace talks. Energy futures popped back up as concerns over a prolonged war and aggravated inflationary pressures were renewed.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Check out our 2022 acreage projections from our March 2022 Farm Futures survey!
Join us on Thursday at 1pm CDT to discuss the latest USDA reports! I’ll be featured in a Farm Progress 365 session to discuss the impacts of the updated data.
Naomi Blohm weighs the pros and cons of selling old crop corn supplies now versus waiting for a summer rally.
Will old crop supplies last before 2022 crops come online? Bryce Knorr points out that this factor will be on everyone’s minds ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 3/30/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.35
7.2675
7.325
0.0625
0.86%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.175
7.085
7.155
0.07
0.99%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.7425
6.6625
6.7225
0.055
0.82%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.59
6.515
6.565
0.0375
0.57%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6225
6.555
6.6
0.0375
0.57%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6375
6.5975
6.6275
0.0375
0.57%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6375
6.5825
6.6225
0.0375
0.57%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.54
16.3875
16.49
0.06
0.37%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.3425
16.195
16.2925
0.055
0.34%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.8775
15.7675
15.795
0.015
0.10%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.0625
14.9475
15.035
0.07
0.47%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5875
14.45
14.5675
0.0825
0.57%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5275
14.4175
14.51
0.0775
0.54%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.2675
14.1525
14.2525
0.07
0.49%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.2125
14.1
14.2125
0.0825
0.58%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.1925
14.1475
14.1475
0.035
0.25%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
72.31
71.13
71.83
0.17
0.24%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
70.47
69.37
69.97
0.1
0.14%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
469.7
463.7
469.5
3.5
0.75%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
464.6
459
464.4
3.2
0.69%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
453.8
448.6
453.7
3.3
0.73%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
436.3
434.2
436.2
0.8
0.18%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
423.2
420.5
423.1
1.6
0.38%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.22
10.0225
10.12
-0.0225
-0.22%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.16
9.96
10.045
-0.0475
-0.47%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.0175
9.85
9.925
-0.055
-0.55%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.88
9.705
9.78
-0.0575
-0.58%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
9.6875
9.4925
9.5875
-0.0625
-0.65%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.335
10.1475
10.22
-0.025
-0.24%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.32
10.15
10.2175
-0.025
-0.24%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.275
10.13
10.195
-0.0175
-0.17%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.2475
10.1075
10.1175
-0.075
-0.74%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.125
10.0025
10.01
-0.0775
-0.77%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.515
10.355
10.4275
-0.0025
-0.02%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.51
10.3425
10.4475
0.0175
0.17%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.285
10.155
10.2475
0.015
0.15%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.26
10.1625
10.21
-0.0175
-0.17%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.2225
#N/A
10.19
0
0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
98.49
97.855
97.915
-0.526
-0.53%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
107.3
104.55
106.68
2.44
2.34%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
104.99
102.41
104.46
2.41
2.36%
APR ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.82
3.7169
3.82
0.1039
2.80%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.4891
3.38
3.4748
0.0856
2.53%
APR ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.278
3.2194
3.2729
0.0696
2.17%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.2589
3.1796
3.2479
0.0712
2.24%
MAR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
156.7
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
164.35
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
140.9
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
138.475
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
106.05
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
118.775
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
23.29
23.29
23.29
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
23.5
23.41
23.5
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
23.52
23.47
23.52
0
0.00%
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Morning report: Wheat mixed as investors remain wary of Russia’s announcement of “no breakthrough” in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
