Afternoon report: Wheat also in the red on Thursday, while soybeans move slightly higher
Grains were mixed but mostly lower on Thursday as traders absorbed a new round of export sales data this morning and continue to closely monitor shipments from the Black Sea as Ukraine and Russia look to extend a current agreement for safe corridor in the coming weeks. Corn prices fell around 0.4% lower, while soybeans firmed slightly. Wheat losses were variable, ranging between 0.2% and 0.9%.
There’s plenty of rain in store for the Mid-South and Texas between Friday and Monday, with some areas likely to see 1.5″ or more through the weekend, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. However, areas further north will be much drier during that time. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts warmer and wetter than normal conditions for most of the Midwest and Plains between November 3 and November 9.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow moved another 296 points higher in afternoon trading to 32,135 on better-than-expected domestic growth – the latest GDP data showed a 2.6% annualized pace, versus trade guesses of 2.3%. Inflation also showed signs of cooling based on some cost-of-living measures. Energy futures also moved higher on Thursday. Crude oil rose more than 1.25% higher this afternoon to $89 per barrel. Diesel jumped 4.25% higher, with gasoline up 3.5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+4,000) and CBOT wheat (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-1,000) and soymeal (-3,000). Funds were roughly even when trading soybean contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices suffered a moderate technical setback following a poor round of export data from USDA this morning (more on that below). Some profit-taking was also evident after prices reached a one-week high in overnight trading ahead of Thursday’s session. December futures dropped 3.25 cents to $6.8175, with March futures down 3 cents to $6.8750.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after firming 5 cents at an Iowa ethanol plant and sliding 5 to 7 cents lower at two other Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Corn exports were disappointing for the week ending October 20 after only reaching 10.4 million bushels. That was below the entire range of trade estimates, which came in between 13.8 million and 42.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are tracking moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 145.5 million bushels.
Corn export shipments were more robust last week, with 24.4 million bushels. Mexico, China, Japan, Jamaica and Canada were the top five destinations.
The European Commission again trimmed its expectations for 2022/23 EU corn production to a 15-year low of 2.161 billion bushels after the continent struggled through rampant heatwaves and drought throughout the season. The European Commission attributed the latest decline to lower harvested acres and yield projections for Spain, France and Poland.
The 2022/23 Argentina corn crop is getting planted more slowly than usual, reaching 17% through late last week. That’s behind both 2021’s pace of 26% and the historical average of 31%. In areas were drought persists, farmers may swap some of their corn acreage out for soybeans this season.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 175,423 contracts, shifting slightly below Wednesday’s final count of 181,965.
Soybeans
Soybean prices shifted slightly higher after testing much more robust gains in midmorning trading, closing with gains of around 0.15%. November futures added 2.25 cents to $13.84, with January futures up 2 cents to $13.95.
Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S. on Thursday but did tilt 5 cents higher at an Indiana processor today.
Soybean exports were decent last week, with 37.7 million bushels. Still, analysts were generally expecting to see a bigger tally, with trade guesses ranging between 29.4 million and 68.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still trending slightly below last year’s pace, with 269.0 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments soared to just under 101.0 million bushels last week. China was by far the No. 1 destination, with 79.0 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, Pakistan and Algeria rounded out the top five.
Because of a chart formation pattern called a “pennant flag,” grain market analyst Naomi Blohm says it could be a signal of a big market move coming down the road. “When we see these “pennant flags” on charts, all we know is that a potential price breakout likely coming, and can estimate how big the price move will be,” she says. “We do not know, if the move is higher or lower, as the actual market fundamentals dictate that.” Blohm goes into much greater detail in her latest round of analysis in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 230,756 contracts, sliding 11% below Wednesday’s final count of 258,904.
Wheat
Wheat prices saw variable losses ranging between 0.2% and 0.9% after traders largely shrugged off a better-than-expected set of export data from USDA and engaged in a round of technical selling instead. December Chicago SRW futures eased 1.75 cents to $8.3875, December Kansas City HRW futures fell 8.25 cents to $9.3250, and December MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 2.5 cents to $9.4950.
Wheat export sales were better than expected last week, reaching 19.6 million bushels. That was above all trade guesses, which ranged between 3.7 million and 18.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are slightly ahead of last year’s pace, with 319.6 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments were lackluster, with just 5.0 million bushels. Mexico, Nigeria, Jamaica, Japan and Italy were the top five destinations.
The European Commission slightly raised its forecast for 2022/23 EU soft wheat production to 4.674 billion bushels. Projected 2022/23 soft wheat exports held steady, at 1.323 billion bushels.
South Korea purchased 4.7 million bushels of milling wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in an international tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 39% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in January and February.
Pakistan is in negotiations to lower prices offered in its tender to purchase 18.4 million bushels of wheat that closed on Wednesday. Several trading houses are being asked to match the lowest price offered by Aston and Solaris.
Taiwan purchased 1.4 million bushels of milling wheat sourced from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between December 14 and December 28.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 68,920 CBOT contracts, moving slightly above Wednesday’s final count of 66,862.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
689.25
679.25
682.25
-3.25
23-Mar
694.5
685
687.75
-3
Soybeans
22-Nov
1394.75
1378.25
1382.25
2.25
23-Jan
1405
1389
1393.5
2
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
408.5
402
407.9
5.7
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
70.93
69.24
69.56
-0.72
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
858
833.5
838.5
-1.75
23-Mar
876.5
853
858
-1.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
955.75
929.5
932.25
-8.25
23-Mar
955.25
929
931.75
-9
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
964.75
948
950.5
-2.5
23-Mar
970.75
955.5
958
-2.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
151.9
150.7
151.4
-0.05
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
179.05
177.75
178.25
-0.575
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
90.625
87.775
88.1
-2.9
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
89.79
87.33
88.73
0.82
Diesel
22-Nov
4.3458
4.0875
4.3253
0.2052
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
3.0221
2.885
3.0066
0.1072
Natural Gas
22-Dec
6.198
5.71
5.88
-0.239
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
110.475
109.365
110.44
0.888
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1674.8
1658.5
1659
-5.4
Copper
22-Oct
3.595
3.595
3.595
-0.0345
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/21)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
5
DAP-New Orleans
801.9
2.76
Urea-New Orleans
650.4
-16.53
Urea-Middle East
702.5
-55
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
