Afternoon report: Corn and wheat prices also firm in Thursday’s session
Grain prices moved higher on Thursday, anchored by double-digit gains for soybeans following the announcement of two large flash sales and a healthy dose of export data from USDA this morning. Wheat also made moderate inroads, with most contracts up around 1%. Corn prices also moved 0.75% higher today, shaking off a four-session losing streak.
Rainy weather will start to make its way across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern and Central Plains between Friday and Monday, while areas farther east should remain dry during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some seasonally warm weather holding across much of the central U.S. between October 27 and November 2, with some drier-than-normal conditions likely for parts of the Plains.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow tilted 143 points lower in afternoon trading to 30,280 on rising Treasury yields, which are now at the highest levels since 2008. Energy futures tracked into the red today. Crude oil dipped 0.25% lower, hovering just above $85 per barrel this afternoon. Gasoline was also down around 0.25%, while diesel dropped 3.75%. The U.S. Dollar firmed fractionally.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+5,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-4,000) and CBOT wheat (-3,000). Funds were roughly even when trading soybeans and soymeal contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices made moderate inroads on a round of technical buying and short-covering after slumping lower the prior four consecutive sessions. December futures added 5.5 cents to $6.8375, with March futures up 5.25 cents to $6.8975.
Corn basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S. on Thursday but did trend 5 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and 7 cents lower at an Iowa processor today.
Corn export sales for the week ending October 13 reached 16.1 million bushels. That was on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 9.8 million and 30.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are trending moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 121.1 million bushels.
Corn export shipments came in at 16.0 million bushels last week. Mexico, China, Honduras, Japan and Saudi Arabia were the top five destinations.
The International Grains Council moderately lowered its 2022/23 world corn production forecast, due to reduced expected output in the European Union and the United States. IGC’s new outlook expects world production to reach 1.166 billion metric tons, versus year-ago totals of 1.217 billion metric tons.
As one recent example of EU’s corn production woes, Germany’s association of farm cooperative reported yesterday that the country’s 2022 corn harvest will tumble more than 20% lower year-over-year to 139.4 million bushels after struggling through rampant hot, dry conditions throughout the season.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 233,054 contracts, trending moderately higher than Wednesday’s final count of 182,271.
Soybeans
Soybean prices made solid inroads after robust export sales data from USDA, coupled with two “bonus” flash sales announced today led to ample technical buying that lifted prices around 1.25%. November futures rose 18.5 cents to $13.91, with January futures up 16.5 cents to $13.9925.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Thursday but did lift 10 cents higher at an Ohio river terminal and 13 cents at an Ohio elevator today.
Private exporters announced two large soybean sales to USDA on Thursday. The first was for 7.4 million bushels to China, and the second was for 4.9 million bushels to unknown destinations. Both sales are for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Soybean export sales were robust last week, reaching 82.1 million bushels. That was still a bit on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 62.5 million and 102.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still running moderately behind last year’s pace so far, with 168.0 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were also solid last week, with 69.7 million bushels. China, Mexico, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy were the top five destinations.
The Rosario grains exchange is holding its 2022/23 corn and soybean production estimates steady from prior forecasts of 2.205 billion bushels and 1.764 billion bushels, respectively. Planting has begun for corn, with 12% completed, and soybean plantings will begin a few weeks from now.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 222,577 contracts, which was 11% above Wednesday’s final count of 200,343.
Wheat
Wheat prices followed other grains higher on a round of technical buying despite a lackluster round of export data from USDA this morning. Some bargain buyers kept prices in the green, with some contracts rising more than 1% by the close. December Chicago SRW futures rose 9.75 cents to $8.51, December Kansas City HRW futures added 8.25 cents to $9.50, and December MGEX spring wheat futures gained 8.75 cents to $9.6225.
Wheat export sales were disappointing last week, with just 6.8 million bushels. That was below the entire range of trade estimates, which came in between 7.3 million and 20.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are slightly ahead of last year’s pace, with 314.5 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments reached 8.9 million bushels last week. Japan, South Korea, Ecuador, Honduras and Panama were the top five destinations.
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange trimmed its 2022/23 wheat production forecast to 551.2 million bushels, making it the poorest turnout in seven years. The Rosario grains exchange noted that crop conditions are “very critical and could still get worse” as the country battles ongoing drought conditions.
Saudi Arabia issued an international tender to purchase 19.7 million bushels from optional origins that closes on Friday. The grain is comprised of nine consignments for shipment between March and April. Saudi Arabia purchased a similar amount of wheat in its last tender that closed on September 19.
Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase 18.4 million bushels from optional origins that closes on October 26. The grain is comprised of several consignments that will be shipped between mid-November and late December. Pakistan is trying to shore up domestic supplies following massive flooding that caused $30 billion in crop and infrastructure damages.
Japan purchased 3.6 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 36% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment between November 21 and December 20.
China plans to auction off another 1.5 million bushels of its state wheat reserves on October 26, according to the country’s National Grain Trade Center in a statement today. China sold a similar amount of wheat in another auction held on October 12.
South Korea purchased 1.1 million bushels of milling wheat, sourced from the United States, in a tender that closed on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment between January 15 and February 15.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 72,707 CBOT contracts, moving modestly above Wednesday’s final count of 66,303.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
687
676.75
684
5.5
23-Mar
692.75
683
690
5.25
Soybeans
22-Nov
1396.5
1370.25
1391.5
18.5
23-Jan
1405
1380
1400
16.5
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
407.5
396.6
406.8
9.5
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
69.4
67.7
67.94
-0.01
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
855.75
836.75
849.25
9.75
23-Mar
873.5
855.25
868
10
KC Wheat
22-Dec
955
938.25
949.75
8.25
23-Mar
953
936.5
948
8.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
967
952.75
962.5
8.75
23-Mar
973.75
959.25
969.5
10
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
149.825
149.2
149.825
0.475
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
178.075
176.8
177.7
-0.375
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
89.2
88.1
89
0
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Nov
88.17
85.22
85.71
0.16
Diesel
22-Nov
3.9603
3.7186
3.7561
-0.1482
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.7161
2.6363
2.6469
-0.0053
Natural Gas
22-Dec
6.044
5.738
5.854
-0.074
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
113.03
112.05
112.81
-0.069
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1644.3
1621.2
1628
0.5
Copper
22-Oct
3.467
3.4175
3.465
0.1045
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/14)
DAP Tampa-index
695.0
-17.5
DAP-New Orleans
799.2
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
666.9
-8.27
Urea-Middle East
757.5
27.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
