Grain prices were back in the red on Wednesday. Soybeans were hit the hardest after beneficial rains in South America and spillover weakness in soyoil triggered a round of technical selling and profit taking that pushed prices 1.75% lower. Corn prices were slightly in the red with losses of around 0.25%. Wheat losses were variable, generally ranging between 0.75% and 1.5% today.
Light rain and snow could fall on the High Plains and upper Midwest between Thursday and Sunday, per NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Western Michigan is the area likely to see the biggest amounts as the week draws to a close. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to drier-than-normal conditions and above-average temperatures for the western Corn Belt and Central Plains between November 23 and November 29.
On Wall St., the Dow tested modest gains of 6 points in afternoon trading, to 33,599, although investors are generally concerned that high inflation will bite into holiday profits for many retailers. Energy futures trended lower. Crude oil dropped 1.75% this afternoon to $85 per barrel after a Russian oil pipeline to Hungary reopened. Diesel dropped 1.5%, with gasoline down around 1%. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+5,000), soybeans (+8,000), soymeal (+2,500), soyoil (+2,500) and CBOT wheat (+4,000).
Corn
Corn prices eased around 0.25% lower today, primarily due to spillover weakness from other commodities. However, a very large flash sale to Mexico announced this morning largely kept losses at bay. December futures dropped 1.75 cents to $6.65, with March futures down 2.25 cents to $6.67.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm on Wednesday after improving 5 to 20 cents across four Midwestern locations today.
Private exporters announced the sale of 73.5 million bushels of corn to Mexico. Of that total, roughly two-thirds is for delivery during the current marketing year, which began September 1. The remainder is for delivery in 2023/24.
Ethanol production saw a moderate decline in the week ending November 11, with a daily average of 1.011 million barrels, versus 1.051 million daily barrels the week prior, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production has stayed above the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark for the fifth consecutive week. Ethanol stocks moved another 4% lower to the tightest levels so far this year.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show solid corn sales for the week ending November 10, with trade guesses ranging between 27.6 million and 59.1 million bushels.
Refinitiv Commodities Research has lowered its estimates for Argentina’s 2022/23 corn production by 3% to 1.937 billion bushels due to ongoing drought and planting delays, although the group also noted some beneficial rains have brought some relief in some areas. That’s below the most recent estimates from both USDA and two Argentine groups.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways saw another 23,932 carloads last week. That brings 2022’s cumulative totals to 1,000,729 carloads, which is 4.1% below last year’s pace so far.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 273,100 contracts, falling well below Tuesday’s final count of 501,618.
Soybeans
Soybean prices eroded 1.75% lower on Wednesday after favorable Brazilian weather forecasts and spillover weakness from soyoil triggered a round of technical selling and profit taking. January futures lost 27 cents to $14.3025, with March futures down 26 cents to $14.3575.
Soybean basis bids fell 2 cents at an Ohio elevator and firmed 5 cents at an Iowa river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 33.1 million and 66.1 million bushels for the week ending November 10. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 90,000 and 350,000 metric tons this past week, plus up to 30,000 MT of soyoil sales.
As the 2022 crop season winds to a close, so will our regular feature “Feedback from the Field,” which is lovingly crafted and organized by Farm Futures grain market analyst Jaqueline Holland. “I am eternally grateful to you for providing the insights that helped other growers and market players understand how this year’s growing season progressed,” she says. Here’s your last chance to catch up on the latest farmer anecdotes and view the interactive map – click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 151,964 contracts, tracking moderately below Tuesday’s final tally of 171,613.
Wheat
Wheat prices faced moderate losses amid growing optimism that a current Black Sea deal will be extended (more on this below), which spurred some technical selling on Wednesday. December Chicago SRW futures lost 12.5 cents to $8.1575, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 7.75 cents to $9.5525, and December MGEX spring wheat futures fell 8 cents to $9.66.
Private exporters announced the sale of announced the sale of 5.5 million bushels of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began July 1.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show wheat sales ranging between 9.2 million and 20.2 million bushels for the week ending November 10.
Bloomberg is reporting that the current deal that allows for safe passage of Ukrainian cargo vessels in the Black Sea will likely be extended for another 120 days after its November 19 expiration. However, it’s still not a done deal yet, and Russia may ask for new conditions before it ultimately agrees to an extension. Click here to learn more.
Ukraine’s grain exports during the 2022/23 marketing year are down nearly 31% from last year’s pace so far as the country still struggles with the challenges of Russian occupation. That includes 220.5 million bushels of wheat sales, 326.8 million bushels of corn sales and 59.7 million bushels of barley sales. Ukraine ranks among the world’s top exporters of these three commodities.
Egypt, one of the world’s top wheat importers, has been holding private talks with traders today to acquire more grain, which resulted in the purchase of 11.0 million bushels sourced from Russia. Egypt cancelled its most recent wheat tender and has been increasingly relying on private purchases, including another 10.3 million bushels (also sourced from Russia) on November 11.
China plans to auction off another 1.5 million bushels of its state wheat reserves on November 23. The country has offered a series of similarly sized auctions in recent weeks to boost local supplies.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 106,977 CBOT contracts, trending moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 165,847.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
666
657.5
665.25
-1.75
23-Mar
668
660
667.5
-2.25
Soybeans
23-Jan
1455
1423.25
1429.25
-27
23-Mar
1459.5
1429
1434.75
-26
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
407
401.7
404
-1.9
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
74.66
71.79
72.1
-2.71
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
829.75
801.5
817.5
-12.5
23-Mar
854
822.5
837.25
-12.5
KC Wheat
22-Dec
964.75
941.5
955.5
-7.75
23-Mar
957
933.5
946
-9.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
972
954.25
965.5
-8
23-Mar
982
962.25
974.25
-8.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
152.2
151.1
151.875
0.6
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
178.25
177
177.525
0.5
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
90.725
89.225
90.45
0.375
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
87.51
84.2
85.71
-1.21
Diesel
22-Dec
3.6721
3.5745
3.6186
-0.0227
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Dec
2.5437
2.4486
2.5143
-0.0018
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.627
6.132
6.549
0.154
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
106.665
105.72
106.21
-0.085
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1788.2
1773.4
1774.5
0.7
Copper
22-Nov
3.8395
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 11/11)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
764.5
-26.46
Urea-New Orleans
583.1
-28.66
Urea-Middle East
587.5
-60
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
599.7
-14.88
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Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all trend lower in Wednesday’s session
