Grain prices slumped lower on Thursday after a disappointing set of export sales data from USDA triggered a round of technical selling. Traders also continue to closely monitor the Russian invasion of Ukraine, South American weather forecasts and more. Corn and soybean prices each dropped about 1% lower, with wheat prices facing losses between 0.5% and 1.75%.
No additional rain or snow is expected in the Plains between Friday and Monday, but much of the eastern Corn Belt may see at least some measurable moisture during that time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Seasonally wet weather could return to the Central Plains between March 31 and April 6, according to NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook. Widespread cooler-than-normal temperatures are also likely.
On Wall St., the Dow moved 238 points higher in afternoon trading to 34,597 after jobless claims dropped to the lowest levels in more than a generation, which infused fresh confidence in the U.S. economy. Energy futures were mixed but mostly lower this afternoon. Crude oil fell 2% to $112 per barrel, and gasoline dropped more than 1.25%. Nearby diesel contracts bucked the overall trend after rising 1%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+3,500), soybeans (+10,000), soymeal (+6,000) and soyoil (+4,500) contracts but were net sellers of CBOT wheat (-5,000).
Corn
Corn prices faltered after a lackluster round of export data from USDA spurred a round of technical selling. Spillover weakness from other commodities created additional tailwinds today. May futures fell 10 cents to $7.4775, with July futures down 7 cents to $7.2775.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady but slightly mixed at some Midwestern locations after easing 2 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal while firming 2 to 3 cents higher at two other locations on Thursday.
Old crop corn sales reached 38.6 million bushels for the week ending March 17, which was 29% below the prior four-week average. New crop sales chipped in another 240,000 bushels, for a total of 38.8 million bushels. That was on the very low end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 35.4 million and 86.6 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2021/22 marketing year are slightly trailing last year’s pace, with 1.193 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments improved 17% from a week ago but were 8% below the prior four-week average, with 58.7 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 18.8 million bushels.
A farmer survey conducted by Farm Futures ahead of next week’s Prospective Plantings report from USDA suggests that farmers planned early for high 2022 input costs and have been largely unmoved by recent swings in commodity prices in making 2022 acreage decisions. The survey results suggest U.S. farmers could plant 90.379 million corn acres (down nearly 3 million acres from last year) and 92.208 million soybean acres (up more than 5 million acres from last year). The survey collected a wealth of information – click here to learn more.
Citing ongoing struggles with drought, the Buenos Aires grains exchange cut its estimates for Argentine corn production this season from 2.008 billion bushels down to 1.929 billion bushels. “As the harvest in the field progresses, yields we’ve seen remain below initial expectations as a result of the thermo-hydric stress during the month of January,” according to the exchange. Argentina is the world’s No. 2 corn exporter.
Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson, says one of the top farmer questions she’s fielded in recent weeks is when they should sell the rest of their stored corn? “If on the answer were as simple as a specific calendar date or certain price point that I could miraculously announce,” she notes. But Blohm reviewed 20 years of July futures prices and what they looked like between the time span of May 1 through June 29. Click here to find out what she learned.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 173,815 contracts, falling moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 232,187.
Soybeans
Soybean prices faced cuts of around 1% after a round of technical selling on Thursday. A flash sale to unknown destinations announced this morning failed to move the needle in the other direction. May futures closed down 17.5 cents to $17.0125, while July futures dropped 16.25 cents to $16.8225.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm after rising 8 to 12 cents at two interior river terminals and improving 9 cents at an Ohio elevator today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 11.7 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
Old crop soybean sales tumbled 70% below the prior four-week average, to 15.1 million bushels. And new crop sales saw reductions of around 475,000 bushels, dropping the total tally to 14.7 million bushels. That was below the entire range of analyst estimates, which came in between 29.4 million and 77.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still more than 400 million bushels behind last year’s pace, with 1.575 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments eroded 38% below the prior four-week average, to 20.2 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 5.9 million bushels.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered its estimates for the country’s 2021/22 corn production but held soybean production estimates steady, at 1.543 billion bushels. The country has been dealing with widespread drought for a large portion of the season.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 134,366 contracts, tracking slightly higher than Wednesday’s final count of 132,082.
Wheat
Wheat prices saw moderate to major cuts after falling for the third consecutive session on Thursday. Traders are still trying to figure out how to “price in” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the two countries combined supplying almost a third of the world’s wheat exports. Prices remain very close to multiyear highs, despite the slide lower this week. May Chicago SRW futures fell 20 cents to $10.8575, May Kansas City HRW futures lost 18.75 cents to $10.9275, and May MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 5 cents to $10.8425.
Wheat exports only had 5.7 million bushels in old crop sales, but new crop sales added another 13.5 million bushels for a total of 19.2 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade guesses, which ranged between 7.3 million and 33.1 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2021/22 marketing year are still tracking moderately below last year’s pace, with 556.5 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments inched 5% below the prior four-week average, to 13.5 mil-lion bushels. South Korea topped all destinations, with 3.1 million bushels.
Egypt has been in talks with the United States, India, Argentina and France as it looks to alternative sources outside of the Black Sea region. “There’s no need for tenders right now but we are planning for the entire year so we are open to all possibilities and preparing backup plans,” according to supply minister Ali Moselhy. Egypt is among the world’s top wheat importers.
Jordan cancelled its international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closed earlier today, although the country is expected to issue a similar tender that will close March 31.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 56,664 CBOT contracts, moving a bit above Wednesday’s final count of 52,783.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
762.5
745
748.25
-10
22-Jul
739.5
725.25
728.5
-7
Soybeans
22-May
1730
1697.5
1700.75
-17.5
22-Jul
1708
1680
1682.25
-16.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
481.1
474.9
477.2
0.2
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
73.59
71.2
72.11
-0.81
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1115
1080.5
1085.75
-20
22-Jul
1100.5
1067
1074.5
-17.25
KC Wheat
22-May
1121
1090.5
1095
-18.75
22-Jul
1115
1085
1090.25
-17.75
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1097.5
1076
1082.75
-5
22-Jul
1094
1073.25
1079.25
-3.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140
139.15
139.8
0.375
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
163.175
161.725
162.875
1.1
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
114.95
113
114.4
-0.25
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
116.64
111.07
111.13
-3.8
Diesel
22-Apr
4.1818
4.0148
4.1193
0.0045
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.5
3.3491
3.352
-0.0867
Natural Gas
22-May
5.508
5.114
5.45
0.176
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
98.965
98.6
98.83
0.215
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
1967.2
1937.4
1964
27.4
Copper
22-Mar
4.8
4.706
4.7065
-0.056
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 03/18)
DAP Tampa-index
1,017.5
122
DAP-New Orleans
1,083.0
35.83
Urea-New Orleans
983.3
82.12
Urea-Middle East
1,120.0
117
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
661.4
0
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all face moderate losses Thursday.
