Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and most wheat contracts face moderate losses Wednesday.
Grain prices were mixed but mostly lower today as traders engaged in some technical selling and profit-taking after prices jumped substantially higher earlier in the week. Cor prices faded 0.5%, with soybeans down 0.75%. Most wheat contracts also shifted 0.5% lower, but Kansas City HRW futures bucked the overall trend after fighting for modest gains.
Between Thursday and Sunday, not much moisture is expected across the Northern and Central Plains, but some additional rains could land on the eastern Corn Belt during that time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather in store for the eastern Corn Belt between April 13 and April 19, with seasonally cool weather returning to the central U.S. later this month.
On Wall St., the Dow spilled 203 points lower in afternoon trading to 34,437 on worries that the U.S. economy could slow down if the Federal Reserve makes aggressive interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Energy prices saw major cuts today, with crude oil tumbling more than 5% lower to $96 per barrel on news that the International Energy Agency will release 120 million barrels from the group’s emergency oil reserves. Diesel and gas each dropped around 4% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+13,500), soybeans (+13,500), soymeal (+5,500), soyoil (+500) and CBOT wheat (+16,500).
Corn
Corn prices emerged from a choppy session with losses of around 0.5%, despite testing modest gains briefly this morning. Despite some big daily moves here and there, prices have stayed in a fairly narrow channel for the past few weeks. Today, May futures slid 4 cents to $7.5575, with July futures down 2.5 cents to $7.4575.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Wednesday, especially at interior river terminals, which fell as much as 6 cents at an Ohio location while firming as much as 10 cents at an Illinois location today.
Ethanol production fell to the lowest level since late February for the week ending April 1, with a daily average of 1.003 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration out earlier today. Stocks fell 2%, trending lower for the first time in five weeks.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s weekly export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 22.6 million and 55.1 million bushels for the week ending March 31.
Soaring input costs have prompted a critical question for the 2022 season – stay the course or mix things up? According to a recent Farm Futures survey, only 9% of respondents are planning to significantly change their crop rotations this season. Responses also highly suggest there won’t be a struggle to secure fertilizer supplies this spring. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland digs into the rest of the survey in her latest E-corn-omics blog – click here to learn more.
Ukraine’s 2022 corn production is expected to fall to less than half of last year’s output, with the country’s UkrAgroConsult predicting 748 million bushels this season. The consultancy’s export estimates are more robust for 2022/23, at 1.123 billion bushels, as the country hopes to unwind a backlog of sales currently halted by war.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways totaled 22,166 carloads last week. Year-to-date totals are now at 303,573 carloads, which is trending 7.8% below 2021’s pace so far.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 216,623 contracts, trending 30% below Tuesday’s final count of 307,681.
Soybeans
Soybean prices shifted moderately lower after a round of technical selling and profit-taking today but remain in very good shape overall, staying above $16 per bushel despite a double-digit drop. May futures faded 13 cents lower to $16.18, with July futures down 12 cents to $16.02.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed after sliding a penny lower at an Illinois river terminal while firming 2 to 5 cents higher at two other Midwestern locations on Wednesday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.2 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts anticipate seeing soybean sales between 22.0 million and 57.0 million bushels for the week ending March 31. Analysts also expect to see between 100,000 and 360,000 metric tons of soymeal sales last week, plus another 5,000 MT to 45,000 MT in soyoil sales.
Nationwide unemployment fell to a monthly average of 5.4% in 2021, and the ag sector also saw an uptick in new hires, according to Bonnie Johnson, marketing associate with Agcareers.com. “Sales/retail careers continued as the most frequently posted career type, followed by farm and ranch operations/herdsperson/on farm jobs,” she notes. “Risk management, customer support, communications and skilled trade careers experienced the largest percentage increase in the past year.” Johnson took a closer look at some interesting trends in the latest Managing Talent blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 130,869 contracts, slipping slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 132,965.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower following some uneven technical maneuvering on Wednesday. Worries over U.S. crop quality and tightening overseas supplies kept losses mostly minimized, although some technical selling and profit-taking still occurred. May Chicago SRW futures fell 5.25 cents to $10.40, May Kansas City HRW futures picked up 2.5 cents to $10.8525, and May MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 5.25 cents to $11.0650.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 3.7 million and 27.6 million bushels for the week ending March 31.
Ukrainian consultancy UkrAgroConsult expects the country’s 2022/23 wheat exports to drop 14.2% to 598.9 million bushels. Wheat production this season is expected to face an even sharper decline, tumbling 38% year-over-year to 727.5 million bushels.
Ample rains have Australian farmers already optimistic about the 2022/23 winter wheat crop. Australia is also expected to be the world’s No. 3 wheat producer in the current marketing year, with sales totaling 1.010 billion bushels.
Jordan passed on all offers in its international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closed earlier today. Prices were regarded as too high, and Jordan has failed to close on multiple similar deals in recent months.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 63,802 CBOT contracts, sliding slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 75,920.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
761.5
750.25
756.5
-4
22-Jul
750.75
739.25
747
-2.5
Soybeans
22-May
1643
1615
1619.5
-13
22-Jul
1625
1599.25
1603.5
-12
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
462.5
453
454.5
-4.2
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
71.7
70.02
70.27
-0.73
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1056.25
1023.5
1038.25
-5.25
22-Jul
1056.5
1024.75
1040.75
-2.75
KC Wheat
22-May
1095.5
1061.5
1085
2.5
22-Jul
1096.75
1063.75
1086
1.75
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1116.5
1094
1108.75
-5.25
22-Jul
1115.5
1093.5
1108.5
-4.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
137.975
136.35
137.7
0.9
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
160.45
157.7
160.1
1.1
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
108.825
106.95
108.525
0.775
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
104.02
95.73
97.21
-4.75
Diesel
22-May
3.5631
3.3228
3.3699
-0.0983
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.21
3.0338
3.07
-0.0949
Natural Gas
22-Jun
6.469
6.08
6.091
-0.017
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
99.8
99.315
99.635
0.207
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1932
1914
1922.6
-0.3
Copper
22-Apr
4.7725
4.6975
4.6975
-0.0935
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/01)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
222
DAP-New Orleans
1,085.8
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
1,002.0
9.92
Urea-Middle East
1,130.0
0
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
689.0
2.76
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