Corn down 2-4 cents
Soybeans down 9-15 cents; Soymeal up $0.70/ton; Soyoil down $1.35/lb
Chicago wheat down 11-13 cents; Kansas City wheat down 8-11 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 5-7 cents
*Prices as of 6:50am CDT.
Farm Futures 2022 Acreage Estimates released today
A week from today, USDA releases its first official look at 2022 acreage. It is likely to generate significant price movement as the market’s first supply-side reading for 2022/23 economic and pricing estimates.
Other firms have begun reporting 2022 acreage estimates in earnest over the past week or so. This morning, our team joins the fray with the release of our estimates following the conclusion of our annual March grower survey, which closed a week ago today.
For detailed results from the grower survey, check out my latest article featuring acreage analysis posted on our website, FarmFutures.com. But if you want a brief overview of our survey results, just continue scrolling along! I’m including the highlights from the survey below in a condensed format.
Of the 973 farmers participating in the survey, conducted via email from February 28 – March 17, 62% expect profits will be lower in 2022 than in 2021. Of those respondents, 95% cited higher input costs as the primary reason for lower 2022 profits.
2022 corn acreage: 90.4M ac. (down 3M ac. from 2021)
2022 soybean acreage: 92.2M ac. (up 5M ac. from 2021)
Third time in U.S. history more soybeans will be planted than corn.
Corn and soybean acreage estimates were unchanged from the FF January 2022 survey, suggesting that high prices drove most U.S. farmers to lock in acreage plans before the Black Sea conflict’s onset.
2022 wheat acreage: 47.6M ac. (34.4M ac. winter wheat, 11.7M ac. spring wheat, 1.5M ac. durum)
Spring wheat and durum acreage expansion to be limited by drought and input costs.
Largest total wheat acreage since 2018.
Corn faces the most potential for price appreciation, while wheat and soybean price outcomes will depend on global export market dynamics.
Corn/Soy/Wheat acreage: 230.2M ac. (5th largest combined acreage, largest since 2014)
Acres gained from lower corn acres, winter wheat-soybean double crop rotations, lower rice acreage, limited spring wheat and cotton expansion, and a smaller U.S. cattle herd.
2022 sorghum acreage: 7.5M ac. (up 200K ac. from 2021)
2022 cotton acreage: 11.9M ac. (6% annual increase, but lower than USDA forecast on high input costs)
2022 rice acreage: 2.1M ac. (down 450K ac. on competition from other row crops)
Persistent drought in the U.S. Plains and Upper Midwest could reduce the chances of attaining trendline yields in 2022, which could create further pricing opportunities for U.S. growers.
More acreage estimates are likely to be released over the next couple days. USDA’s 2022 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks report will reconcile all these estimates with the agency’s annual grower survey next week.
Farm Futures will provide live coverage and analysis of the data updates. Follow our website and social platforms for the latest news and insights when USDA releases the new data sets next Thursday, March 31, 2022 at 11 am CDT.
Good morning!
Today will be a busy day for market watchers. Illinois bi-weekly cost of production figures will be updated today, which should provide the latest insights into the speed at which farm-level expenses are rising for growers who may have booked 2022 input costs late.
Export data released today from USDA’s Weekly Export Sales report will also indicate global propensity to continue buying corn and soybeans amid tight global supplies, largely due to South American crop shortfalls.
Additionally, traders will be keeping an eye on wheat export interest. The U.S. has become a residual supplier of wheat amid the Black Sea market’s dominant rise on the global stage over the past two decades.
But with those supplies rendered inaccessible amidst the ongoing war, the U.S. is one of the few countries with available wheat supplies left in the Northern Hemisphere. Global buyers have largely shunned U.S. wheat since the Black Sea conflict began, favoring cheaper and more readily accessible supplies in India, Australia, and the European Union.
An uptick in U.S. wheat export sales today – particularly old crop sales – would be bullish for wheat prices and would provide one of the most firm demand indicators the market has seen over the past month since the Black Sea conflict’s onset.
Corn
Corn prices drifted lower this morning as profit-takers swooped in to take the tops off yesterday’s rallies. Losses were capped by shrinking South America supplies as a La Nina-induced drought continues to wreak havoc on the region’s crops. Lower energy prices prevented a further rally in the corn market, despite an uptick in weekly ethanol output data reported yesterday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Argentina’s corn crop continues to suffer drought-induced losses, which led the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange to make a further reduction to its 2021/22 corn production forecasts overnight. Argentina is the world’s second largest exporter of corn.
“As the harvest in the field progresses, yields we’ve seen remain below initial expectations as a result of the thermo-hydric stress during the month of January,” the exchange said.
The exchange slashed nearly 79 million bushels from its previous estimate, settling at a paltry 1.93 billion bushels for the season. USDA currently forecasts the crop at 2.09 billion bushels, though the agency has reduced its forecast on the crop by 59 million bushels since December 2021.
Soybeans
Soybean futures fell $0.09-$0.15/bushel overnight, the soy market’s first fall over the past four trading sessions after growing U.S. export interest propelled the complex higher through the first part of the week.
Bunge reported that is oilseed processing facility in Mykolaiv, Ukraine incurred “some damage” yesterday during fighting. The facility, which also houses grain storage and export loading facilities, has been closed since the Russian invasion began in late February.
Wheat
Ukraine’s agriculture minister Roman Leshchenko announced his resignation overnight, though he declined to provide a reason to the Ekonomichna Pravda newspaper, which broke the story. A stronger dollar and round of profit-taking left prices in the wheat complex $0.05-$0.14/bushel lower than yesterday’s market close.
Top global wheat buyer Egypt is in talks with Argentina, India, and the U.S. for potential trade opportunities in the wheat market. While an official deal has not yet been struck, this is a great sign for U.S. wheat exporters who have struggled to maintain a competitive edge on global markets amid surging global commodity prices following Russia’s military invasion into Ukraine last month.
Egypt purchased 80% of its wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia last year. Those markets have been rendered inaccessible by the ongoing war.
Weather
More wintery precipitation mix will continue to hover in the Upper Mississippi River Valley today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. As the system shifts east into the Eastern Corn Belt, it will largely turn to rain, though total precipitation accumulation is not likely to top more than a quarter inch.
Financials
U.S. stock futures traded higher this morning amid falling energy prices, which eased inflation concerns on Wall Street and lured more money to the equities market. An aggressive plan to be laid out by the Federal Reserve to tightening monetary supplies amid inflationary pressures will be laid out in the coming weeks. So far the Fed’s actions have been highly favorable to Wall Street investors, in hopes that it will be the solution to lower COVID-induced inflation.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
AgMarket.Net’s Betsy Jibben shares updates on planting intentions from Ukrainian farmers and agricultural companies.
In the wake of soaring commodity prices, Brazil will temporarily lift its ethanol export tariff. And the U.S. will also increase ethanol blending to combat high gas prices.
Markets are trading at an unprecedented level of volatility. Advance Trading’s Brady Huck shows farmers how to focus on what can be controlled in a recent Ag Marketing IQ column.
La Nina is back for a second straight spring and Bryce Knorr has key insights about tight supplies, fertilizer markets, and the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war that could point to more high prices.
Commstock Investment’s Matthew Kruse outlines the importance of Brazil’s safrinha crop after the country finished up its soybean harvest last week.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 3/24/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.625
7.4875
7.52
-0.0575
-0.76%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.395
7.275
7.3025
-0.045
-0.61%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.9225
6.8075
6.84
-0.035
-0.51%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.7725
6.66
6.6975
-0.025
-0.37%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.775
6.67
6.7075
-0.0225
-0.33%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.775
6.68
6.7175
-0.02
-0.30%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.755
6.65
6.69
-0.0225
-0.34%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.3
17.025
17.055
-0.1325
-0.77%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.08
16.8275
16.8625
-0.1225
-0.72%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.61
16.365
16.3975
-0.1225
-0.74%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.6625
15.4875
15.4875
-0.145
-0.93%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.14
14.925
14.965
-0.115
-0.76%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.0275
14.8425
14.8625
-0.1175
-0.78%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6325
14.46
14.475
-0.1125
-0.77%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.53
14.3725
14.3725
-0.1075
-0.74%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.44
14.32
14.32
-0.125
-0.87%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
76.63
74.3
74.5
-1.47
-1.93%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
73.59
71.2
71.43
-1.53
-2.10%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
487.6
482.4
484.5
-0.6
-0.12%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
479.8
474.9
476.5
-1.1
-0.23%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
466.2
462.2
463.7
-0.9
-0.19%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
448.8
446.7
448.7
-0.6
-0.13%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
435.3
432.7
433.4
-1.4
-0.32%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.15
10.805
10.88
-0.1775
-1.61%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.005
10.67
10.7375
-0.175
-1.60%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.7
10.4075
10.4825
-0.1375
-1.29%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.425
10.1425
10.2375
-0.1
-0.97%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.1125
9.865
9.9625
-0.095
-0.94%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.21
10.905
10.9625
-0.1525
-1.37%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.15
10.85
10.9075
-0.1475
-1.33%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.9525
10.735
10.7525
-0.135
-1.24%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.835
10.58
10.62
-0.11
-1.03%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.4375
10.35
10.3925
-0.115
-1.09%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.975
10.7775
10.805
-0.0875
-0.80%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.8975
10.7375
10.7375
-0.11
-1.01%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.72
10.5525
10.5525
-0.0925
-0.87%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.625
10.5325
10.535
-0.0875
-0.82%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
10.54
10.5325
10.54
-0.01
-0.09%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
98.9
98.6
98.76
0.145
0.15%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
116.64
112.84
115.13
0.2
0.17%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
113.51
109.97
112.19
0.2
0.18%
APR ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.1599
4.06
4.1514
0.0366
0.89%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.857
3.7561
3.8436
0.0263
0.69%
APR ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.5
3.4075
3.429
-0.0097
-0.28%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.4727
3.3791
3.4077
-0.0118
-0.35%
MAR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
156.1
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
161.775
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
139.425
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
135.975
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
102.55
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
114.65
0
0.00%
MAR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
22.43
22.41
22.43
0.04
0.18%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.25
24.1
24.25
0.04
0.17%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.15
25.1
25.15
0.06
0.24%
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Morning report: Plus – 2022 acreage forecasts from the March 2022 Farm Futures survey (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
