Morning report: Overnight trading volumes were thin, suggesting today’s USDA reports could usher in more price volatility. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 1-2 cents
Soybeans down 2-4 cents, Soymeal up $2.10/ton, Soyoil down $0.48/lb
Chicago wheat down 4-5 cents, Kansas City wheat down 4 cents, Minneapolis wheat down 2-3 cents
*Prices as of 7:10am CST.
Feedback from the Field updates – last week of the season! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
My latest FFTF column is live on our site! Soybean harvest is rapidly coming to a close across the country and more and more FFTF respondents are reporting corn harvest as complete.
Responses are starting to slow as many growers are wrapping up for the year, so our time together in FFTF this growing season will also come to an end in the upcoming weeks. So be sure to drop any insights you’d like to share with us from the 2022 season at this link and I will share them on our map as well as in my columns as harvest season winds down. Thanks! -JH
Happy WASDE Day!
USDA releases its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today at 11am CST. Our team will be covering the reports in real time and offering the latest marketing insights at our website (FarmFutures.com) and on our social platforms (@FarmFutures). Follow along for the latest news!
Here is a brief preview of what to expect in today’s reports.
Domestic production
All eyes will be on any further yield adjustments USDA-NASS will decide to make to 2022 corn and soybean yields today. The average trade guess for corn is perfectly aligned with last month’s yield estimate, but several prominent forecasters issued guesses that were higher than October’s yields.
Corn prices ended yesterday’s trading session in the red as market players finalized positions ahead of this morning’s reports, which suggests the markets have already priced in a potentially higher yield move by USDA.
Similarly, soybean yields are also expected to stay in line with last month’s NASS forecast of 49.8 bpa. I expect that any downward yield revisions by NASS will likely usher bullish price momentum into both of these markets following the reports’ release and any upward revisions will likely be met with little reaction following yesterday’s losses in both markets.
The November Crop Production report is important because it will be the last time before January 2023 that USDA will issue updated yield forecasts for the 2022 growing season.
Domestic stocks
The key story here is that markets are expecting usage rates for all three crops (corn, soybeans, and wheat) to be revised lower on lackluster export paces (primarily) which will increase ending stocks of all three crops and be a bearish influence on prices.
Soybean shipping paces have rebounded somewhat over the past few weeks as upstream showers and dredging have helped move grain barges down the Mississippi River. But the damage done early in the season is likely unrecoverable at this point – unless Brazil has production issues in the coming months.
A strong dollar isn’t helping the global case for U.S. exports either. The dollar, which is regarded as a safe haven asset that investors flock to in times of economic uncertainty, continues to keep U.S. grain and oilseed exports as a less affordable option on the global market relative to other sources.
Global stocks
U.S. supplies may be widening, but crop shortfalls in other regions of the world (Argentina’s wheat – drought; Australia’s wheat – flooding; France’s corn – drought) will likely trim global ending supplies for the 2022/23 marketing year.
Chinese import volumes are always a hot ticket item to watch in this category. It will also be interesting to me to see how USDA’s World Ag Outlook Board continues to account for grain flows in Russia and Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict.
Even if bearish forces prevail in the earlier two categories, global supply tightness is likely to be the key factor that will limit any potential price losses following the WASDE report release today.
Corn
Corn prices continued $0.01-$0.02/bushel lower overnight ahead of today’s USDA reports. Overnight trading volumes were thin as investors await USDA’s latest data update. Weak energy prices and a stronger dollar limited future demand prospects for the corn complex this morning.
Cash prices again closed mixed at elevator locations in the Eastern Corn Belt yesterday. Basis remains positive at Western Corn Belt elevators and ethanol plants but negative in their eastern counterparts. Basis grew at ethanol plants across the Corn Belt. Cash bids at processors was also mixed today though the bids are largely quoted at a premium to Dec22 futures. Cash prices at export terminals were weaker to flat yesterday as cash quotes continue to trade at a steep discount to futures.
Soybeans
Soybean prices edged $0.02-$0.05/bushel lower this morning after wavering between gains and losses earlier in the overnight trading session. Losses were limited by a flurry of export sales announcements form USDA yesterday. China ordered 5.1 million bushels, Mexico snapped up 5.3 million bushels, and unknown buyers booked 4.8 million bushels of U.S. soybeans yesterday morning.
Cash soybean prices rose at an Eastern Corn Belt ethanol plant and elevator yesterday. Cash prices for soybeans at elevator and river terminals destined for the U.S. Gulf continue to be quoted at steep discounts to January 2023 futures prices. Processors are largely offering cash bids at or above futures prices, offering growers with surplus harvested supplies a profitable option for cash sales.
Wheat
The wheat complex saw prices fall by $0.02-$0.04/bushel overnight as markets brace for today’s USDA updates. Wheat market dynamics continue to be influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty about the future of shipping corridors in the Black Sea.
Both cash markets for hard red winter wheat in the Southern Plains and soft red winter wheat in the Eastern Corn Belt were flat during yesterday’s trading session. With futures prices dipping below recent highs, farmers had little incentive to book new cash sales during the market session yesterday.
European wheat futures fell to a seven-week low yesterday as expectations persisted that Ukrainian shipping corridors would remain open for the foreseeable future. European wheat exports, which were initially the market’s supplier of choice when Northern Hemisphere crops were harvested this summer, are now more expensive than the behemoth Russian crop despite Western sanctions complicating Russian export transactions.
“Russian wheat is looking the cheapest large-volume seller in the world export markets currently,” a German trader told Reuters yesterday. “Russia has a big crop to dispose of and is likely to remain an aggressive seller in coming months, which could cost the EU export business.”
In two international wheat tenders issued by top international buyer, Egypt, and Algeria yesterday, Russia was the lowest bidder. Egypt’s state grain buying agency, GASC, cancelled the tender shortly after its announcement yesterday after transportation costs rendered the Russian grain unaffordable. But the Algerian tender was accepted.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the U.N. to extend the “Black Sea Grains Initiative” yesterday, which expires on Saturday, November 19. “We maintain the line that the initiative must continue regardless of whether the Russian Federation is willing,” Zelenskiy said.
Weather
More showers and potential snow is on the way for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. Accumulation is not likely to top a half inch in the Dakotas but could rise to the two-inch mark in Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending cooler than normal for the middle of the month across most of the country. Chances for rain will be below normal in the Midwest and Northern Plains, though the Central and Southern Plains are likely to see a near normal to above average change of precipitation during that tie.
Those trends will begin to shift slightly in the 8-10-day outlook. Forecasts during that time are still cool but not quite as chilly as in the 6-10-day forecast. The chances for excessive dryness in the Upper Midwest during that time will extend into the Central Plains.
Financials
Wall Street indices wavered overnight as markets digested election results. The S&P 500 fell 0.29% to $3,824.25 at last glance as a result. Some spillover weakness from yesterday’s cryptocurrency selloff was also at play in the markets this morning.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
USDA is calling for more corn acreage in 2023 in its latest Baseline Projections to 2023 report.
Corn, wheat, and money are still playing ball. Bryce Knorr lists three fundamentals to watch to make sure you aren’t missing out on the game.
Advance Trading’s JJ Keske thinks it’s not too early to start thinking about 2023 sales.
Shrinking diesel stockpiles and seasonal demand jumps are putting a strain on farmers’ pocketbooks.
Water Street Solutions’ Darren Frye offers three approaches to solve your farm’s toughest problems.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 11/9/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6875
6.65
6.6525
-0.0225
-0.34%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.75
6.71
6.7125
-0.025
-0.37%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.75
6.71
6.715
-0.0225
-0.33%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.71
6.6725
6.6725
-0.025
-0.37%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.3225
6.2925
6.2925
-0.0225
-0.36%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2
6.17
6.17
-0.0225
-0.36%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2575
6.245
6.245
-0.02
-0.32%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2825
#N/A
6.2875
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2675
6.2475
6.26
0.0025
0.04%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.47
14.355
14.4375
-0.0025
-0.02%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.515
14.42
14.4275
-0.0375
-0.26%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.575
14.485
14.485
-0.0475
-0.33%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.635
14.55
14.5525
-0.045
-0.31%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6375
14.565
14.565
-0.05
-0.34%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.4425
14.3925
14.4025
-0.0475
-0.33%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.07
14.0175
14.0225
-0.05
-0.36%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8975
13.8375
13.85
-0.0325
-0.23%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.915
13.86
13.8775
-0.025
-0.18%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8175
#N/A
13.815
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.76
13.72
13.76
-0.0075
-0.05%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
75.4
74.36
74.52
-0.51
-0.68%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
72.97
72
72.19
-0.49
-0.67%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
422.2
418.5
421
1.7
0.41%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
416.4
412.7
415
1.3
0.31%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408.9
405.2
408
1.6
0.39%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
404.9
401.4
403.7
1.2
0.30%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
403.7
400.3
402.7
1.2
0.30%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.34
8.2125
8.235
-0.0425
-0.51%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.5375
8.41
8.435
-0.04
-0.47%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.645
8.5175
8.54
-0.04
-0.47%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.6925
8.565
8.5825
-0.045
-0.52%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.715
8.635
8.65
-0.045
-0.52%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.835
8.72
8.7425
-0.0375
-0.43%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.795
8.76
8.76
-0.04
-0.45%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.5125
9.4
9.415
-0.0425
-0.45%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.47
9.36
9.3775
-0.04
-0.42%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.43
9.325
9.34
-0.04
-0.43%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.34
9.2475
9.28
-0.025
-0.27%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.26
9.22
9.2425
-0.035
-0.38%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.3175
#N/A
9.3025
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.24
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.5525
9.48
9.49
-0.015
-0.16%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6875
9.5925
9.61
-0.025
-0.26%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7325
9.6625
9.6625
-0.0325
-0.34%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.71
9.6825
9.6825
-0.005
-0.05%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.47
9.4125
9.42
-0.055
-0.58%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.46
#N/A
9.4775
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.49
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
109.985
109.355
109.79
0.248
0.23%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
89.24
87.11
87.58
-1.33
-1.50%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
88.26
86.25
86.66
-1.34
-1.52%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.7886
3.6819
3.7033
-0.0674
-1.79%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6082
3.5171
3.5321
-0.0619
-1.72%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.6421
2.5714
2.5792
-0.0575
-2.18%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.57
2.505
2.5117
-0.0528
-2.06%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
178.275
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
179.9
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
153.05
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
154.775
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
85.575
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
88.5
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.81
#N/A
20.88
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.93
20.89
20.93
-0.04
-0.19%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.25
20.15
20.25
0.1
0.50%
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