Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all made solid inroads in Friday’s session
A broad range of stocks and commodities trended higher on Friday, and grain prices also enjoyed a healthy boost today, raking in double-digit gains after an ample round of technical buying. Wheat was the biggest benefactor, with some contracts up more than 5% today. Corn also saw substantial gains of more than 3%, while soybeans firmed 0.75% to 2% higher by the close.
More rain is coming to the Corn Belt this weekend and early next week – particularly in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan, which could gather 3″ or more between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the Plains and upper Midwest between September 16 and September 22, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the entire central U.S. during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow was on track for a three-day winning streak after rising 411 points in afternoon trading to 32,186. But stocks have been volatile in recent sessions as investors weigh the possibility of another 75-point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Energy futures made significant forward momentum, with crude oil up 4.25% this afternoon to $87 per barres. Gasoline trended 3.75% higher, while diesel firmed 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+1,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (3,000), soybeans (-1,000), soymeal (-2,000) and CBOT wheat (-5,000).
Corn
Corn prices moved considerably higher as traders finished squaring positions ahead of Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA. Most analysts expect the agency to lower its yield estimates by at least two bushels per acre. September futures rose 23 cents to $6.9750, with December futures up 16.5 cents to $6.85.
Corn basis bids were mixed at two Midwestern processors (moving 15 cents in either direction) while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Ahead of Monday’s WASDE report, analysts think USDA will lower its estimates for 2022/23 corn ending stocks from 1.388 billion bushels in August down to 1.217 billion bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged between 1.412 billion and 980 million bushels.
USDA announced earlier today that it will release four weeks’ worth of export sales data next Thursday. The agency says the weeks of August 18 and August 25 will be combined into a single reports, and additional separate reports will be issued for the reporting periods ending September 1 and September 8. USDA has not released this data due to technical issues that happened when it launched its new reporting system in late August.
Due to ongoing hot, dry weather, FranceAgriMer lowered its quality ratings for the 2022 corn crop for the ninth consecutive week. Only 43% of the crop is now rated in good-to-excellent condition, falling another two points lower compared to last week. Ratings have plummeted since early July, when 84% was in good-to-excellent condition.
Taiwan made no purchases in its international tender for 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn that closed earlier this week. The country will likely issue a similar tender that closes next week.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 152,926 contracts, which was moderately lower than Thursday’s final count of 176,413.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed a wide set of other commodities higher, which sparked a round of technical buying that led to double-digit gains. September futures rose 18.75 cents to $14.8925, with November futures up 27.25 cents to $14.1325.
Soybean basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations on Friday but did firm 3 cents at an Ohio elevator and climb 20 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 3.8 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to Taiwan during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Prior to USDA’s September WASDE report, analysts think the agency will slightly raise its estimates for 2022/23 soybean ending stocks from 245 million bushels in August to 247 million bushels this month.
China once again plans to auction off 18.4 million bushels of its state imported soybean reserves on September 16. Similarly sized auctions have been routine throughout the year in an attempt to boost local supplies and tamp down high prices.
USDA-FAS issued a report yesterday that showed China’s soybean imports are likely to fall due to waning demand from its swine and poultry sectors. The report expects China’s 2022/23 soybean imports to total 3.546 billion bushels.
How do your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other operations in the U.S.? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 91,201 contracts, sliding moderately below Thursday’s final count of 120,307.
Wheat
Wheat prices jumped higher on worries that Russia will demand changes to a current deal that allows for safe passage of Ukrainian ships from its Black Sea ports (more on that below). Rising energy prices and a weakening U.S. Dollar lent additional support today. December Chicago SRW futures climbed 43 cents to $8.72, December Kansas City HRW futures rose 38.75 cents to $9.3175, and December MGEX spring wheat futures gained 28.75 cents to $9.27.
Ahead of Monday’s WASDE report, analysts expect USDA to slightly raise its estimates for 2022/23 wheat ending stocks from 610 million bushels in August up to 618 million bushels in September.
Leaders from Turkey and Russia will meet in Uzbekistan next week to discuss a UN-brokered deal that is allowing freer flow of Ukrainian grain through its Black Sea ports. The deal has been recently criticized by Vladimir Putin, who wants to see amendments added to it before it is extended in November.
Ukraine’s fall harvest is around 60% complete, according to a statement from its agriculture ministry today. Wheat accounts for the lion’s share so far, with 705.5 million bushels. Barley has made the second-most progress, and Ukraine is only at the very beginning of its 2022 corn harvest.
Recent frosts in Argentina have caused damage to the country’s 2022/23 wheat crop, according to comments from the Buenos Aires grains exchange. Last season, Argentina’s wheat production reached 823 million bushels, but planted acres are down around 9% from a year ago.
If it’s been awhile since you’ve ventured to FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes stories about U.S. farm income trends, the hiring of a new ag trade negotiator and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 70,193 CBOT contracts, which was slightly below Thursday’s final count of 79,854.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
700.5
678.75
698.5
23
22-Dec
685.75
669
685
16.5
Soybeans
22-Sep
1481.75
1481
1489.25
18.75
22-Nov
1415.75
1387.25
1412.25
27.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
417
408.8
414.8
5.7
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
66.81
64.82
66.68
1.67
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
849.75
810
853.25
42.75
22-Dec
872.5
826
869.5
43
KC Wheat
22-Sep
934.75
934.75
929.25
41.75
22-Dec
933
890.25
929.25
38.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
917.5
906
909.75
38
22-Dec
934
892.25
927.5
28.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
145.875
144.25
145.825
1.45
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
186.7
184.025
185.9
1.5
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
83.5
81.35
83.175
0.5
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
87.2
82.71
86.54
3
Diesel
22-Oct
3.6108
3.5201
3.5845
0.0444
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.448
2.317
2.4324
0.0863
Natural Gas
22-Nov
8.255
7.946
8.085
0.114
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
109.55
108.35
109.04
-0.673
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1730.5
1710
1713.6
5.6
Copper
22-Sep
3.6325
3.559
3.569
0.033
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/02)
DAP Tampa-index
820.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
833.9
18.19
Urea-New Orleans
766.1
82.67
Urea-Middle East
863.0
68.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
531.9
55.12
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