Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and most wheat contracts spend Thursday in the red
Grain prices were mixed but mostly lower in Thursday’s session, which featured plenty of technical selling. Kansas City HRW contracts were the lone exception, testing very modest gains of only 0.1%. In contrast, corn fell 1.25%, while soybeans spilled 1% lower. Other wheat contracts closed with losses of around 0.5% to 0.75%.
The corridor just west of the Mississippi River is likely to see 1″ to 2″ or more additional rains between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. More seasonally wet weather is possible for the western Corn Belt and the Plains between November 10 and November 16, per NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook. Cooler-than-normal conditions are likely for the western half of the country during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow eased 11 points lower in afternoon trading to 32,136 as investors remain focused on the latest inflation and interest rate trends. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil sank 1.75% lower this afternoon to $88 per barrel. Gasoline slid slightly lower, while diesel jumped more than 5% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed considerably.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+3,000) and soyoil (+6,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-8,000), soymeal (-1,000) and CBOT wheat (-20,000).
Corn
Corn prices faded 1.25% lower on a round of technical selling following a sharply stronger U.S. Dollar along with a lackluster set of export data from USDA this morning. December and March futures both dropped 8.75 cents to close at $6.7875 and $6.84, respectively.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. on Thursday after trending as much as 6 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and as much as 3 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant today.
Corn export sales reached 14.7 million bushels last week. That was near the middle of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.8 million and 26.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are trending moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 163.2 million bushels.
Corn export shipments came in at 17.7 million bushels last week. China was the No. 1 destination, with 5.7 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, Jamaica and Taiwan rounded out the top five.
Analytics firm IHS Markit increased its estimate for 2022 U.S. corn yields from 171.2 bushels per acre in early October up to 172.9 bpa. The group also upped its 2022 U.S. soybean yield estimates from 49.9 bpa last month to 50.3 bpa.
Brazil’s Anec reported that the country’s corn exports climbed to 245.7 million bushels in October. That was more than triple October 2021’s tally of 73.7 million bushels.
“While you may want to rest from the hectic rush of harvest, now is the time to scenario plan for the grain marketing opportunities in front of you now, and start thinking about marketing 2023 and potentially even the 2024 crop,” according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. Blohm offers some analysis and advice in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 246,086 contracts, tracking moderately lower than Wednesday’s final count of 328,686.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed other grains lower on a round of technical selling and profit-taking on Thursday. Export sales were robust this past week, but analysts were expecting to see even bigger numbers in the latest USDA report. November futures dropped 13.75 cents to $14.2625, with January futures down 17 cents to $14.37.
Soybean basis bids were
mostly steady across the central U.S. but did trend 5 cents higher at an Indiana processor while firming 7 cents higher at an Ohio river terminal on Thursday.
Soybean export sales only reached 30.5 million bushels last week. Analysts were generally expecting to see a bigger haul, with trade guesses ranging between 25.7 million and 61.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are slightly behind last year’s pace so far, with 363.4 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were much more robust, climbing to 97.4 million bushels. China accounted for the bulk of that total, with 73.3 million bushels. The Netherlands, Egypt, Mexico and Germany filled out the top five.
Earlier this week, pro-Bolsonaro protestors were creating blockades that limited grain transportation to the Brazilian port of Parnagua. However, officials are reporting that those blockades are being cleared. Only 45 trucks arrived there yesterday, versus a typical average of around 700 trucks. Some 1,200 trucks are scheduled to arrive at the port today.
Brazil’s Anec reported that the country’s October soybean exports reached 131.0 million bushels in October. That was a year-over-year increase of 19.5%. Brazilian soymeal exports were also up from year-ago results, with 1.817 million metric tons last month.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 145,526 contracts, shifting 18% below Wednesday’s final count of 177,607.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower after a round of uneven technical maneuvering on Thursday. Sentiment was mostly bearish as a shaky deal between Russia and Ukraine for safe passage of shipping vessels in the Black Sea remains in place for now. December Chicago SRW futures dropped 6 cents to $9.4125, December Kansas City HRW futures picked up a penny to $9.4125, and December MGEX spring wheat futures fell 6.25 cents to $9.43.
Wheat export sales made it to 12.8 million bushels last week. That was toward the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 23.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still slightly above last year’s pace, with 323.9 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments were disappointing, with just 4.3 million bushels. Mexico accounted for roughly half of that total, with 2.2 million bushels. Taiwan, Trinidad and Tobago, South Korea and Vietnam rounded out the top five.
Yesterday, Russia agreed not to terminate a deal in place that allows safe passage of Ukrainian cargo vessels through Black Sea shipping channels. But the country’s foreign minister is also urging the easement of Western sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports, which was also negotiated in the initial deal, which is due to expire on November 19 if it is not extended. “We have once again called on the United Nations Secretary General to ensure that he fulfils the obligations he agreed to through his own initiative,” according to foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
Quality concerns are on the rise for Australia’s wheat crop amide widespread flooding. The country may still be on track for a third consecutive bumper crop, but some yield losses were also noted. “There have been some growers who have had total loss … it’s still pretty raw for many people,” according to farmer Brett Hosking. As much as 294 million bushels could be downgraded to feed-quality wheat.
Iraq purchased 5.5 million bushels of wheat, primarily sourced from Canada, Lithuania and Australia, in an international tender that closed earlier this week. Additional details regarding shipment were not immediately available.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 86,876 CBOT contracts, which was significantly below Wednesday’s final count of 161,566.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
686.5
678.5
679.25
-8.75
23-Mar
691.75
684
684.75
-8.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1440
1416.5
1426.75
-13.75
23-Jan
1453.5
1428
1437
-17
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
417.2
407.1
407.5
-9.3
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
73.84
71.46
73.18
-0.09
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
849
827.75
840.5
-6
23-Mar
868
847.25
859.75
-6
KC Wheat
22-Dec
949.5
925.25
941.25
1
23-Mar
946.25
924
938.75
0.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
953.5
933
943
-6.25
23-Mar
966.5
948.75
955
-5.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
152.225
150.975
151.9
0.5
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
180.2
179
179.35
-0.65
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
88.35
87.025
87.425
0.225
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
89.67
87.6
88.29
-1.71
Diesel
22-Dec
3.8944
3.6264
3.8741
0.1967
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Dec
2.7053
2.6328
2.6926
-0.0046
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.543
6.282
6.327
-0.262
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
113.045
111.705
112.785
1.559
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1643.2
1618.3
1616.5
-29.2
Copper
22-Nov
3.4565
3.4455
3.4565
-0.049
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/28)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
790.9
-11.02
Urea-New Orleans
611.8
-38.58
Urea-Middle East
647.5
-55
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
614.5
-2.76
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