Afternoon report: Prices faced mixed but mostly lower results in Tuesday’s session
Grain prices were aligned for another round of gains on Tuesday after trending moderately higher in overnight trading. But a selloff on Wall St. applied enough downward pressure to push corn and soybeans back into the red today. Wheat stayed firm on lingering concerns about Ukraine’s ongoing production and export risks.
Plenty more rains are on their way to the Dakotas and Minnesota between Wednesday and Saturday, with areas farther south unlikely to see measurable moisture during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The Plains could return to seasonally dry conditions between September 20 and September 26, with the central U.S. likely to see above-normal temperatures next week, per NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook.
On Wall St., the Dow tumbled 964 points lower in afternoon trading to 31,416 following a worse-than-expected inflation report that showed year-over-year inflation is 8.3%. That news stoked investor fears that inflation trends are problematic enough that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep raising interest rates to combat the problem. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil dropped 0.5% this afternoon to $87 per barrel. Diesel was also down 1.5%, while gasoline firmed 1.25% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed substantially.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+9,000), soybeans (+21,000), soymeal (+10,500) and soyoil (+5,000) contracts but were net sellers of CBOT wheat (-7,000).
Corn
Corn pricesstayed near three-month highs but tilted moderately lower Tuesday amid spillover weakness from severe Wall St. losses today. September futures fell 3.25 cents to $7.09, with December futures down 5.25 cents to $6.9075.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak across the central U.S. after spilling 5 to 15 cents low at four Midwestern locations on Tuesday. An Iowa processor bucked the overall trend after climbing 20 cents higher today.
Analysts expected corn ratings to hold steady from a week ago, but USDA lowered them by a point in yesterday’s crop progress report, leaving 53% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through Sunday. Another 27% is rated fair (unchanged from last week), with the remaining 20% rated poor or very poor (up a point from last week).
Nearly all (95%) of this season’s corn crop has reached the dough stage, versus a prior five-year average of 96%. Seventy-seven percent is dented (prior five-year average is 79%), and 25% is fully mature (prior five-year average is 30%). Harvest progress reached 5%, which is one point faster than the prior five-year average of 4% so far.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s corn exports to reach 310.2 million bushels in September. That forecast is up 24.9% from Anec’s prior estimate made a week earlier.
France’s farm ministry expects the country’s 2022 corn crop to turn in the poorest performance in more than three decades after estimating a production of 446 million bushels. “A decline in planting, linked to the surge in fertilizer and gas prices, has been coupled with a sharp drop in yields caused by drought,” per a recent statement.
South Korea issued an international tender to purchase 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, which will be sourced from either the United States, South America or South Africa, that closes on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment in November.
A railroad workers strike is looming, which would be very bad for supply chain logistics if it ends up occurring (around 30% of the nation’s freight is shipped via rail). By some accounts, a strike would cost the U.S. economy more than $2 billion per day. Click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 194,463 contracts, which was well below Monday’s final count of 325,251.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed corn lower on a round of technical selling largely spurred by spillover weakness from the stock markets, incurring double-digit losses along the way. September futures dropped 15.5 cents to $15.3425, with November futures down 11 cents to $14.7725.
Soybean basis bids tumbled 30 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal and fell 3 cents at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
The 2022 soybean season is getting closer and closer to harvest. Nearly all (97%) of the crop is now setting pods through September 11, versus the prior five-year average of 98%. And 22% is dropping leaves, which is six points behind the prior five-year average of 28%.
As with corn, USDA docked soybean quality ratings a point, with 56% of the crop now in good-to-excellent condition. Another 29% is rated fair (unchanged from last week), with the remaining 15% rated poor or very poor (up a point from last week).
How do your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other operations in the U.S.? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s soybean exports to reach 164.3 million bushels in September, which is 14% above its prior projection from a week ago. Anec also sees Brazilian soymeal exports trending higher, with an estimated 2.115 million metric tons this month.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 217,365 contracts, sliding 26% below Monday’s final count of 295,277.
Wheat
Wheat prices faced some downward pressure from plummeting stocks today but ended the day slightly firm on some net technical buying based in part on worries about Ukraine’s ongoing production and export challenges. December Chicago SRW futures picked up 0.75 cents to $8.5950, December Kansas City HRW futures gained 5.5 cents to $9.3250, and December MGEX spring wheat futures added 3.5 cents to $9.30.
The spring wheat harvest moved from 71% complete a week ago up to 85% through September 11. This year’s effort is still slower than 2021’s pace of 95% and the prior five-year average of 89%, however. Winter wheat plantings made some progress as well, moving from 3% a week ago up to 10% through Sunday. That puts the 2022/23 crop slightly behind 2021’s pace of 11% but remains ahead of the prior five-year average of 7%.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 3.6 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 32% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for arrival by the end of December.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 64,335 CBOT contracts, tracking moderately lower than Monday’s final count of 88,313.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
725
710
709
-3.25
22-Dec
698.25
688.25
692.75
-5.25
Soybeans
22-Sep
1556
1525
1534.25
-15.5
22-Nov
1508.75
1475.75
1478.75
-11
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
441.8
428.4
428.9
-11
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
69.98
68.05
68.93
0.58
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
850
839
842.75
1.5
22-Dec
876.25
850.5
860.5
0.75
KC Wheat
22-Sep
949
943.75
944
8.25
22-Dec
945.75
921.75
933.75
5.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
ERR
918.25
22-Dec
940.5
922
931.25
3.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
145.7
144.525
144.825
-0.925
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
183.125
179
180.675
-2.45
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
85.875
82.85
85.65
2.875
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
89.31
85.06
87.9
0.12
Diesel
22-Oct
3.6596
3.485
3.5509
-0.0522
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.5091
2.4172
2.4958
0.051
Natural Gas
22-Nov
8.501
8.211
8.385
0.098
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
109.76
107.67
109.76
1.444
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1732.8
1696.9
1703
-25.1
Copper
22-Sep
3.6975
3.5645
3.5645
-0.061
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/02)
DAP Tampa-index
820.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
833.9
18.19
Urea-New Orleans
766.1
82.67
Urea-Middle East
863.0
68.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
531.9
55.12
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