Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all incur major losses in Tuesday’s session
After taking a three-day holiday breather, grain prices took a beating on Tuesday, after a jump in planting progress and hopes for Ukraine’s exports to pick up led to a round of technical selling and profit-taking today. A lackluster set of grain export inspection data from USDA this morning created additional headwinds. Corn prices slumped 3% lower, with soybeans down around 2.5%. Wheat losses were even greater today, ranging between 4% and 6%.
Scattered rains are possible in parts of the central U.S. between Wednesday and Saturday, with a band stretching from northern Texas through central Illinois likely to see the highest totals, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The Northern Plains and upper Midwest will remain mostly dry during this time, in contrast. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for most of the Corn Belt between June 7 and June 13, with cooler-than-normal conditions prevalent across the Midwest and Plains.
On Wall St., the Dow slid 47 points lower in afternoon trading to 33,165 as a volatile month draws to a close. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil tracked slightly lower this afternoon, staying just below $115 per barrel. Nearby diesel contracts were down around 0.25%, while gasoline moved 0.25% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
Last Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+13,000), soybeans (+3,000), soymeal (+2,500) and CBOT wheat (+6,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-3,000).
Corn
Corn prices faced a 3% drop on Tuesday after expected planting progress and a tepid amount of grain export inspections spurred a round of technical selling. Spillover weakness from other commodities created additional headwinds today. July futures dropped 24.25 cents to $7.53, with September futures down 20.5 cents to $7.2425.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. on Tuesday, spilling as much as 21 cents lower at an Illinois processor while firming 8 to 11 cents higher at two Midwestern ethanol plants today.
Corn export inspections slid 21% lower week-over-week to 54.8 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade guesses, which came in between 39.4 million and 70.9 million bushels prior to today’s report. China was the No. 1 destination, with 10.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain well below last year’s pace, with 1.664 billion bushels.
Ahead of the next USDA crop progress report, out later this afternoon, analysts expect the agency to show corn plantings at 85% complete through May 29, up from 72% a week ago. Individual trade guesses ranged between 83% and 89%.
The latest data from the European Commission shows EU 2021/22 corn imports reaching 594.5 million bushels through May 29, which is a year-over-year increase of 8.8% so far.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 319,523 contracts, almost doubling Friday’s final count of 179,164.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed other grains lower as traders locked in profits and incited a round of technical selling today. Soybeans fell 2.5%, with soymeal down 3.75% and soyoil losing 2%. July soybean futures dropped 45.25 cents to $16.87, with August futures down 40.75 cents to $16.2225.
Soybean basis bids eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Soybean export inspections were lackluster, only making it to 13.9 million bushels after facing a moderate week-over-week decline. That was also on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 29.4 million bushels. Germany was the No. 1 destination, with 2.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are now at 1.781 billion bushels, versus year-ago totals of 2.082 billion bushels.
Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean plantings at 67% complete through Sunday, up from 50% a week ago. Individual trade guesses ranged between 62% and 71%.
Ahead of a USDA report out Wednesday afternoon, analysts expect the agency to show April’s U.S. soybean crush at 180.5 million bushels, which would be the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest daily pace since last September, if realized. That would still be moderately above April 2021’s total of 169.8 million bushels, if realized.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 487.2 million bushels as of May 29, tracking slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also down from a year ago, with 14.88 million metric tons through the same period. Soyoil stocks through April 30 are expected to fall to 2.316 billion pounds.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 231,082 contracts, tracking moderately higher than Friday’s final count of 165,325.
Wheat
Wheat prices fell sharply lower on Tuesday after renewed hopes that Ukrainian exports will soon pick up incited a round of technical selling that left some contracts down as much as 6%. July Chicago SRW futures lost 69.5 cents to $10.88, July Kansas City HRW futures tumbled 69.75 cents to $11.6550, and July MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 52.75 cents to $12.52.
Wheat export inspections made moderate inroads from a week ago, climbing to 12.6 million bushels. That was still toward the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 18.4 million bushels. Nigeria was the No. 1 destination, with 2.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately below last year’s pace, with 734.7 mil-lion bushels.
Ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show spring wheat plantings at 67% complete through May 29, up from 49% last week. Winter wheat conditions may firm a point week-over-week, with 29% of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 905.0 million bushels through May 2, which is slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU barley exports are also trending slightly lower year-over-year, with 311.4 million bushels.
Ukraine’s winter wheat harvest this season could reach 738.5 million bushels, according to state weather forecasters. That would be a year-over-year decline of nearly 38% for the war-torn nation, if realized. Ukraine’s grain exports are also struggling, with 1.1 million metric tons exported this month, versus 2.8 million MT in May 2021.
Meantime, in Russia, the country’s Sovecon consultancy estimates it will export 36.7 million bushels of wheat in May, which is roughly half of April’s tally but would be more than double May 2021 results, if realized. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Yesterday, Russian president Vladimir Putin said he was open to coordinating with Turkey to facilitate “unhindered export” of grain from Ukrainian ports. “During the discussion of the situation in Ukraine, emphasis was placed on ensuring safe navigation in the Black and Azov seas and eliminating the mine threat in their waters,” according to a recap from the Kremlin.
Jordan purchased 2.2 million bushels of wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The country was initially seeking double that amount, however. The grain is for shipment in August.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 126,453 CBOT contracts, which nearly tripled Friday’s final count of 45,529.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Jul
777.25
747.25
753.5
-24.25
22-Sep
744.5
719.75
725
-20.5
Soybeans
22-Jul
1749.25
1673.75
1683.25
-45.25
22-Sep
1600.75
1540.75
1544.75
-37.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-Aug
431.2
406.9
410.4
-16.1
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Aug
78.4
76.28
76.38
-1.04
Wheat $/bushel
22-Jul
1157.25
1087.5
1087.5
-69.5
22-Sep
1165.25
1096.25
1097.5
-66.5
KC Wheat
22-Jul
1237.25
1165.25
1165.5
-69.75
22-Sep
1243
1171.25
1172
-65.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Jul
1310
1245.25
1247.5
-52.75
22-Sep
1310
1245.25
1247.5
-52.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Jun
133.075
130.225
130.6
-1.575
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
171.05
167.725
167.775
-1.525
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Jul
110.875
106.975
108.425
-3.3
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jun
119.98
114.15
115.33
0.26
Diesel
22-Jun
4.2474
3.9894
3.9894
-0.0135
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Jun
4.1626
3.9947
4.0249
0.0091
Natural Gas
22-Aug
8.897
8.111
8.218
-0.494
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
102.205
101.42
101.78
0.475
Gold $/ounce
22-Jul
1863.7
1839.5
1836.7
-14.6
Copper
22-Jun
4.349
4.289
4.293
-0.011
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 05/27)
DAP Tampa-index
1,117.5
0
DAP-New Orleans
917.7
-2.76
Urea-New Orleans
642.1
-49.6
Urea-Middle East
720.0
11.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
683.4
-5.51
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