Afternoon report: Wheat also shifts slightly lower, with soybeans narrowly mixed
Harvest pressure kept corn prices in check to start the week, with losses of around 1% on Monday after the ensuing round of technical selling. Wheat prices were more modest (around 0.1% to 0.2%) as traders continue to closely monitor the latest Black Sea disruptions as Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine. Soybean prices were narrowly mixed, unable to move the needle much in either direction today.
Nearly no rain is expected to fall outside of the Great Lakes region between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts the return of seasonally wet conditions for nearly all of the Midwest and Plains between October 24 and October 30, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the eastern half of the country.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., The Dow climbed 574 points higher, moving back above the 30,000-point benchmark to 30,209. The gains were anchored by solid bank earnings reports out earlier today. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil dipped 0.25% lower to $85 per barrel, while gasoline lost more than 1.5% this afternoon. Diesel didn’t follow that pattern after trending more than 2.25% higher. Volatile natural gas spilled 7% lower. The U.S. Dollar also softened significantly.
On Friday, commodity funds were net sellers of corn (-5,500), soybeans (-3,000), soyoil (-4,500) and CBOT wheat (-11,500) contracts. Funds were roughly even when trading soymeal contracts on Friday.
Corn
Corn pricestrended around 1% lower following a round of technical selling that was largely spurred by seasonal harvest pressure. A tepid round of export inspection data from USDA earlier today was also unhelpful. December futures dropped 7 cents to $6.8275, with March futures down 6.75 cents to $6.8950.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed to start the week after moving as much as 10 cents higher at an Illinois processor while falling as much as 7 cents at an Iowa processor on Monday.
Corn export inspections eased slightly from the prior week to 17.7 million bushels for the week ending October 13. That was on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 14.8 million and 24.6 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 6.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are trending moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 129.4 million bushels.
Ahead of the next crop progress report from USDA, out Monday afternoon and covering the week through October 16, analyst think the agency will show corn harvest move from 31% completion a week ago up to 46% through Sunday. Crop quality ratings are expected to hold steady, with 54% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 155,787 contracts, sliding slightly below Friday’s final count of 170,187.
Soybeans
Soybean prices fought through a choppy session with not much to show for today’s efforts as traders weighed seasonal harvest pressure against a better-than-expected round of export inspection data. November futures picked up 0.25 cents to $13.84, while January futures eased 1.25 cents to $13.9150.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm after moving between 2 and 45 cents higher across five Midwestern locations on Monday.
Soybean export inspections exceeded expectations after nearly doubling week-ago results and climbing to 69.2 million bushels. That far exceeded the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 20.2 million and 46.8 million bushels. China was by far the No. 1 destination, with 49.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still moderately behind last year’s pace, with 171.6 million bushels.
Prior to the next USDA crop progress report, out later this afternoon, analysts expect the agency to show soybean harvest at 60% through October 16, versus 44% a week earlier. Quality ratings are expected to hold steady, with 57% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition.
Brazilian soybean planting progress jumped from 10% a week ago to 24% through October 12, per the latest estimates from the country’s AgRural consultancy. That puts current progress slightly ahead of year-ago results of 22%. Total plantings are expected to improve 3.4% year-over-year to just under 106 million acres, and production could top 5.585 billion bushels.
Russian attack drones struck tanks holding sunflower oil in the Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv, which has been under near-constant shelling in recent months and has suffered prior port terminal attacks in June and August. Ukraine is the world’s No. 1 sunflower oil exporter.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 212,201 contracts, shifting slightly below Friday’s final tally of 219,638.
Wheat
Wheat prices inched slightly lower on some light technical selling, unable to hold onto moderate gains captured in overnight trading. December Chicago SRW futures eased 0.75 cents to $8.59, December Kansas City HRW futures dipped 0.5 cents to $9.5175, and December MGEX spring wheat futures dropped a penny to $9.5325.
Wheat export inspections only reached 8.5 million bushels last week, which was below the entire range of trade guesses that came in between 12.9 million and 26.6 million bushels. Japan was the top destination, with 2.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are fractionally ahead of last year’s pace, with 344.1 million bushels.
Ahead of the next USDA crop progress report, analysts think the agency will show winter wheat plantings move from 55% a week ago up to 68% through October 16. Individual trade guesses ranged between 66% and 70%.
Turkey issued an international tender to purchase up to 18.2 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on October 21. The grain is for shipment starting on November 1.
India’s ministry of consumer affairs indicated the country has sufficient stocks of wheat and may export some of that stockpile as needed to control prices. Like most other countries, India is battling rampant food inflation, which jumped 8.6% in September.
Russia’s Sovecon consultancy estimates that the country’s wheat exports will reach 161.7 million bushels, which will be a month-over-month increase of 7.3%, if realized. It would also be the largest monthly tally in more than a year.
The Philippines purchased 6.1 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from Australia, in an international tender that closed late last week. The grain is comprised of three consignments that will be shipped in January, February and March.
South Korea issued a tender to purchase 1.7 million bushels of milling wheat, sourced from the United States, which closes on Tuesday. The grain is for shipment between December 16 and January 15.
China sold 1.5 million bushels of its state wheat reserves at an auction held on October 12, which was 100% of the total on offer. This marked the first time China auctioned off its wheat reserves in 2022.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 71,311 CBOT contracts, which was nearly identical to Friday’s final count of 71,900.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
692.25
681.25
683.5
-7
23-Mar
698.25
687.75
689.75
-6.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1395
1376.25
1385.25
0.25
23-Jan
1402.5
1384.5
1392.75
-1.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Dec
408.4
403.6
405.8
-1
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Dec
65.21
63.5
64.91
1.17
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
877.75
855.25
861
-0.75
23-Mar
894.5
874.25
878.75
0
KC Wheat
22-Dec
969.25
948
952
-0.5
23-Mar
967.5
946.75
950.75
-1
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
969.25
951.5
955.25
-1
23-Mar
976.75
960
963
-2
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
147.975
146.95
147.975
1.025
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
176.825
174.75
176.5
1.725
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
86.1
83.025
85.65
2.225
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Nov
87.12
84.61
85.56
-0.05
Diesel
22-Nov
4.1188
3.9981
4.0793
0.0991
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.669
2.5762
2.5964
-0.0345
Natural Gas
22-Dec
6.737
6.382
6.47
-0.357
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
113.17
111.79
111.915
-1.287
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1667.6
1645.2
1652
10.3
Copper
22-Oct
3.479
3.44
3.44
-0.0105
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/14)
DAP Tampa-index
695.0
-17.5
DAP-New Orleans
799.2
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
666.9
-8.27
Urea-Middle East
757.5
27.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
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