Afternoon report: Winter wheat prices also move higher on Thursday, while soybeans slide lower
Grain prices were mixed but mostly positive on Thursday. Winter wheat turned in the best performance, rising 1% after better-than expected export sales data from USDA this morning spurred some technical buying. Corn prices saw improvements of around 0.5%. In contrast, soybean prices fell more than 0.5%, and spring wheat prices eased slightly.
More rain and snow is likely for the Norther Plains and upper Midwest between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Areas farther south should remain relatively dry during this time. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between December 22 and December 28, with much colder-than-normal conditions likely for the central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow plummeted 789 points lower in afternoon trading to 33,176 on worries that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are too aggressive and are steering the economy towards a recession. Energy futures also slumped lower, with crude oil down 1.5% to $76 per barrel. Diesel was narrowly mixed, while gasoline lost 3.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+2,000) and soymeal (+3,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-2,500), soyoil (-1,000) and CBOT wheat (-1,000).
NOTE: The latest Farm Futures grower survey is still live. The data we collect will help us develop 2023 acreage estimates and much more. It also helps us determine to a degree some of the content we’ll produce this coming year. We’d love for you to participate – click here to get started.
Corn
Corn prices tracked around 0.5% higher after a flash sale to Mexico and a healthy dose of export data from USDA led to a round of technical buying on Thursday. March futures added 3.5 cents, with May futures up 3.25 cents to $6.5425.
Corn basis bids were mixed at three Midwestern processors on Thursday, moving as much as five cents in either direction. Bids were steady elsewhere across the central U.S. today.
Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 4.0 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn export sales were strong last week, with 37.8 million bushels. That matched the top end of trade estimates, which ranged from 23.6 million and 37.8 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still well below last year’s pace, with 286.0 million bushels since the beginning of September.
Corn export shipments reached 23.2 million bushels last week. China, Mexico, Honduras, Japan and Costa Rica were the top five destinations.
The Environmental Protection Agency announced that the U.S. generated 1.27 billion ethanol blending credits in November, which was slightly above October’s tally of 1.24 billion bushels. The U.S. also generated 582 million biodiesel blending credits last month, versus 477 million in October.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 143,391 contracts, rising slightly above Wednesday’s final count of 132,006.
Soybeans
Soybean prices eroded more than 0.5% lower after recession fears and lower energy prices triggered some technical selling today. January futures dropped 10 cents to $14.7225, with March futures down 9.5 cents to $14.7550.
Soybean basis bids dropped 5 to 15 cents lower at two Midwestern processors and slid 2 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Soybean export sales jumped to 108.2 million bushels for the week ending December 8. That was well above the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 55.1 million and 77.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still trending moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 845.8 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were also robust, with 67.8 million bushels. China, Mexico, South Korea, Bangladesh and Japan were the top five destinations.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a disappointing November soybean crush of just 179.184 million bushels. That was well below the average trade guess of 181.473 million bushels, and it was also slightly below year-over-year results of 179.462 million bushels. Soyoil stocks increased to 1.630 billion pounds through November 30, versus year-ago levels of 1.832 billion pounds.
In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reports that its expectations for 2022/23 corn and soybean production are steady from its prior projections of 2.205 billion and 1.764 billion bushels, respectively. However, soybean plantings in particular are “threatened by the lack of water and very high temperatures that have been ongoing since November,” according to the exchange. Soybean planting progress is at 49%, versus 2021’s pace of 65%.
Interested in learning more about South American production and what it might mean for your bottom line in 2023? Farm Progress is offering a special session featuring Cesar Cruz, director of research with Advance Trading on December 22. Additional sessions next week will diesel trends and maximizing winter shop time. Click here to learn more about this free, seasonal content.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 198,171 contracts, moving moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 235,777.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed after some uneven technical maneuvering on Thursday. Winter wheat prices firmed 1%, while spring wheat prices eased slightly lower. March Chicago SRW futures added 8.5 cents to $7.5775, March Kansas City HRW futures rose 9.75 cents to $8.60, and March MGEX spring wheat futures dipped half a penny lower to $9.1675.
Wheat export sales were solid last week, with 17.2 million bushels. That was better than all analyst estimates, which ranged between 5.5 million and 13.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are slightly below last year’s pace so far, with 367.7 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments reached 9.4 million bushels last week. Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Nigeria and Guatemala were the top five destinations.
The Rosario Grains Exchange reduced its estimates for Argentina’s 2022/23 wheat production by 3% to 422.6 million bushels, citing widespread drought. “Wheat in the central region has suffered a devastating season, between the constant lack of water … and the frosts,” according to the exchange. Around 62% of this season’s crop has been harvested so far.
As expected, Japan purchased 5.7 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 43% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment starting in mid-January.
Tunisia purchased 4.6 million bushels of durum wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between January 10 and February 25.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 73,276 CBOT contracts, shifting 22% higher than Wednesday’s final count of 59,959.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
23-Mar
654.25
647.75
653.5
3.5
23-May
654.75
648.75
653.75
3.5
Soybeans
23-Jan
1486
1468
1473.5
-10
23-Mar
1489
1471.5
1476.75
-9.5
Soymeal $/ton
23-Mar
460.9
450.1
452.6
-4.5
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Mar
63.11
61.55
62.98
0.26
Wheat $/bushel
23-Mar
767
745
757.25
8.5
23-May
776
754.75
766
7.5
KC Wheat
23-Mar
866.75
844
860.5
9.75
23-May
860
838.5
852.75
7.75
MPLS Wheat
23-Mar
926.5
912
917.25
-0.5
23-May
922.25
908.5
913
-1.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Dec
154.725
153.925
154.025
-0.475
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Mar
185.675
184.55
184.7
-0.75
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Apr
90.75
89.1
89.5
-1.225
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
23-Jan
77.77
75.33
76.06
-1.22
Diesel
23-Jan
3.3268
3.2304
3.2778
0.001
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
23-Jan
2.2496
2.1642
2.1713
-0.0731
Natural Gas
23-Feb
6.646
6.163
6.484
0.264
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
104.86
103.5
104.515
0.776
Gold $/ounce
23-Jan
1812.1
1775
1778.7
-28.8
Copper
22-Dec
3.8575
3.7585
3.7685
-0.1065
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 12/02)
DAP Tampa-index
692.0
-8
DAP-New Orleans
630.0
0
Urea-New Orleans
512.5
0
Urea-Middle East
556.5
-31
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
535.0
0
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