Morning report: Corn, soy fall on hopes for planting advances amid clear weather this week. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 1-3 cents
Soybeans down 13-20 cents; Soymeal down $4.50/ton; Soyoil down $2.38/lb
Chicago wheat up 6-7 cents; Kansas City wheat up 8-9 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 10-11 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Good morning! USDA releases its weekly Crop Progress report today and focus will continue to weigh heavily on planting progress. Planting rates are still low as it is early in the year, but with last week’s rain – and some snow – showers it seems likely that corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting will continue to see delays.
I spent last week in the Midwest for a combination of professional meetings and a bit of family time. I got to meet an adorable new niece and celebrated another niece’s birthday with a tea party. Plus, there was a delayed Easter egg hunt with my siblings and lots of cuddles and not talking about Bruno with my little nephews – if you know, you know!
There was no planting activity happening during my stay (just moving cattle), though my parents’ farm received around five inches of rain while my husband and I were back. My parents’ dairy farm in Northern Illinois sits in the region categorized in moderate drought condition and the visual difference in soil moisture levels was evident as we drove out from Chicago.
The rain was great for replenishing soil moisture – which is desperately needed on land that has little organic residue or cover crops – but it will likely set back planting progress again this week. Temperatures back at the dairy farm rose well into the 70s on Saturday and accompanying winds helped give soils an expedited chance to dry out.
Syngenta’s GreenCast tool finally shows soil temperatures in Illinois and the Eastern Corn Belt warming into the 50s, though Iowa, Wisconsin, and parts of Nebraska are currently sitting in the 40s or lower. Western Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota continue to see soil temperatures range in the 30s, which offers little optimism for timely planting in those regions.
This will likely add more bearish pressure to corn prices this week, because lower anticipated 2022 corn plantings are expected to further tighten global corn supplies amid the ongoing Black Sea conflict. NOAA’s 6- to 10-day forecast projects more cool and wet weather in the coming week, especially in the Upper Midwest. This could start to add more bullish pressure to soybean markets as well as the wet weather begins to delay soybean sowing.
Dry weather is likely to continue in the Western Plains. Driving back home to Fort Collins, Colorado last night from the airport, we noticed some neighbors have already started their yard sprinklers (IN APRIL) which does not bode well for my lawn – or for looming watering restrictions likely to be passed down in the coming months.
Corn
Corn prices edged $0.01-$0.03/bushel lower this morning amid the backdrop of a stronger dollar and clearing weather forecasts across the Corn Belt this week that could spur favorable planting activity for the corn complex.
Losses were held in check by more cool and wet weather expected next week, which could increase planting delays.
Soybeans
News that last Friday’s Indonesian palm oil export ban would not be as restrictive as previously believed triggered a selloff in the soyoil market that extended across the entire soyoil complex this morning, sending Chicago soybean futures $0.13-$0.19/bushel lower at last glance. Soyoil futures were down 2.5% on the news while easing demand continues to send soymeal prices up to 1% lower this morning.
Following last week’s announcement that Indonesia would be banning palm oil exports, further clarification on the measures released overnight contributed to a quick reversal of soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies that the ban would only extend to refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein shipments, NOT crude palm oil. This means that a critical source of edible oil will no longer be as constricted as markets believed following Friday’s announcement, justifying this morning’s soyoil selloff.
Palm oil is the largest produced edible oil in the world. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top producers and exporters of this edible oil. Since the top four edible oils (palm, soy, canola, and sunflower) are already in tight supply, Friday’s announcement triggered a rally in the soyoil complex as the four oils typically act as substitutions for one another, especially in high-price situations.
Wheat
The wheat complex was the only source of optimism in the grain markets this morning, with futures prices across the Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis exchanges posting a $0.07-$0.10/bushel gain this morning.
Ongoing disturbances to global wheat trade flows due to the Russian war in Ukraine and China’s cessation of weekly state reserve wheat sales via auction increased the likelihood of tightening global wheat supplies. The rally faced an upper limit this morning as a stronger dollar limited U.S. wheat’s attractiveness on the global market this morning.
Weather
More showers will travel through the Eastern Corn Belt and Southern Plains today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Texas will likely see over an inch of accumulation in the next 24 hours while the Eastern Corn Belt shouldn’t receive more than a half inch during that time.
Overall, cool weather will continue through the week but atmospheric temperatures in the Corn Belt have a good shot at warming into the 60s through the week, which could help keep soil temperatures above the critical 50-degree benchmark necessary for planting and successful germination.
Skies across the Heartland are likely to clear tomorrow through at least Wednesday, so expect planters to roll at full speed in the coming days until the next round of spring rain showers.
Financials
S&P 500 futures dipped 27 points (0.63%) overnight to $4,240.25, led by further COVID outbreaks and lockdown measures in China that could threaten global economic recovery from the pandemic. Asian stocks sold off overnight and the dollar continued its rally as global investors grasped for the safe haven asset.
Additional investor concern about rising Federal Reserve sentiments to accelerate interest rate hikes also contributed to equity index losses this morning. Morgan Stanley strategists suggested overnight that the S&P 500 could be headed towards bearish territory amid these market sentiments, especially following three weeks of losses.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Naomi Blohm expects grain prices will stay in a holding pattern over the next few weeks, supported by tight ending stocks but stalemated by a lack of fresh market news.
Roger Wright explains how put options can add value to cash grain sales.
Mike Downey weighs the odds of farmland prices cooling off and the results could have challenging implications for future farmland buyers.
Advance Trading’s Josh Green has fresh insights for how to make a profitable year even more profitable.
Dave Kohl questions if food producers are losing touch with mainstream consumers.
Bryce Knorr has the latest insights into the fertilizer market and a few key reasons why high fertilizer prices are likely to stick around.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 4/25/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.99
7.8475
7.91
-0.02
-0.25%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.955
7.81
7.875
-0.015
-0.19%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.5075
7.37
7.4325
-0.0225
-0.30%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.2875
7.145
7.2075
-0.0375
-0.52%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.315
7.1825
7.2425
-0.035
-0.48%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.3125
7.19
7.2475
-0.0375
-0.51%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.275
7.1425
7.205
-0.035
-0.48%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.2325
16.89
16.9475
-0.2125
-1.24%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.955
16.59
16.6325
-0.2475
-1.47%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.385
16.06
16.1125
-0.22
-1.35%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.5525
15.25
15.31
-0.2025
-1.31%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.115
14.785
14.8725
-0.18
-1.20%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.12
14.805
14.89
-0.18
-1.19%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.975
14.6925
14.81
-0.1175
-0.79%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.9275
14.685
14.7425
-0.17
-1.14%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.9475
14.71
14.735
-0.185
-1.24%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
84.57
80.23
80.4
-2.86
-3.44%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
82.04
78.16
78.28
-2.23
-2.77%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
460
452
452.9
-5.9
-1.29%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
453
445.3
446.3
-5.8
-1.28%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
441.9
435.4
436.3
-5.1
-1.16%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
429
423.3
424.2
-5.6
-1.30%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
417.5
411.3
413
-5.5
-1.31%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.8
10.58
10.7325
0.0775
0.73%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.895
10.6725
10.82
0.0675
0.63%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.8675
10.66
10.8275
0.095
0.89%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.835
10.6225
10.79
0.0925
0.86%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.805
10.62
10.78
0.0925
0.87%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.55
11.4275
11.5275
0.1
0.88%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.6375
11.4975
11.59
0.095
0.83%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.625
11.4875
11.5925
0.11
0.96%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.57
11.4575
11.54
0.095
0.83%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.5325
#N/A
11.4125
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.7775
11.6725
11.7475
0.145
1.25%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.8
11.6825
11.7675
0.14
1.20%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.6625
11.5575
11.625
0.1125
0.98%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.6375
11.5425
11.605
0.0925
0.80%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.565
#N/A
11.4775
0
0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
101.75
101.05
101.61
0.397
0.39%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
101.55
96.85
97.03
-5.04
-4.94%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
100.48
95.98
96.13
-4.92
-4.87%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.9554
3.817
3.8513
-0.0873
-2.22%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6255
3.4818
3.5141
-0.1217
-3.35%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.2986
3.1581
3.1624
-0.1426
-4.31%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.2701
3.1383
3.1458
-0.1402
-4.27%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
157.95
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
163.875
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
142.45
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
138.425
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
111.85
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
118.775
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.32
24.3
24.3
-0.02
-0.08%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.92
24.75
24.8
0.25
1.02%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.16
24.81
25.16
0.38
1.53%
