Grain prices were mixed as traders finished squaring positions ahead of tomorrow morning’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from USDA. Soybeans turned in the strongest performance, rising more than 1.5% after getting additional support from fresh worries about South America’s production potential. Corn prices rose modestly higher, but wheat failed to follow suit after a round of technical selling trimmed most contracts 0.75% to 1.5% lower.
Some light rains will be possible across most of the Plains and Midwest between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Very few places will gather more than 0.25″ during this time, however. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally dry weather returning to the Central Plains between April 14 and April 16, with cooler-than-normal conditions likely for the entire central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow inched 9 points higher in afternoon trading to 34,505 as investors try to understand the opportunities and challenges that could come from a higher interest rate environment. Energy prices were mixed this afternoon. Crude oil tilted slightly higher, staying near $96 per barrel. Gasoline faced a modest drop, while nearby diesel contracts sank 2.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-3,500), soybeans (-6,000), soymeal (-2,500), soyoil (-3,000) and CBOT wheat (-2,000).
NOTE: Keeping up with crop conditions and development across the country can be challenging as planting season nears, but Farm Futures is here to help. Our Feedback from the Field series is back for another year to help farmers across the country share their views on the 2022 growing season. Click here to find out how to participate – we’d love to hear from you!
Corn
Corn prices inched modestly higher on some light technical buying as traders finished positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow morning’s WASDE report. May futures picked up 1.75 cents to $7.5825, while July futures added 3.25 cents to $7.5025.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak on Thursday after dropping 3 cents at two Midwestern ethanol plants and 12 cents at an Iowa river terminal today.
Corn exports saw old crop sales improve 23% week-over-week to 30.8 million bushels through March 31. New crop sales accounted for another 5.7 million bushels, for a total of 36.5 million bushels. That was on the lower side of trade estimates, which ranged between 22.6 million and 55.1 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2021/22 marketing year are trending slightly behind last year’s pace, with 1.331 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments shifted 13% lower from a week ago but stayed 2% above the prior four-week average, with 64.3 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 18.1 million bushels.
Ahead of the April WASDE report from USDA, out Friday morning, analysts expect the agency to show 2021/22 ending corn stocks to fall from 1.440 billion bushels down to 1.415 billion bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged from 1.365 billion to 1.520 billion bushels.
Brazil’s Conab raised its estimates for the country’s total corn production this season by 2.9% to 4.551 billion bushels. Corn export estimates in 2021/22 also improved 5.7% to 1.457 billion bushels.
A recent report from USDA-FAS estimates that China’s corn import needs in 2022/23 will reach 787.4 million bushels. The report also made a downward revision of China’s 2021/22 corn import estimates to 944.8 million bushels, noting “delivery into China for contracted corn could be problematic owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Preliminary volume estimates were for 306,246 contracts, rising moderately above Wednesday’s final count of 254,781.
Soybeans
Soybean prices made substantial inroads after Brazil’s Conab placed doubts that this season’s production will even reach 4.5 billion bushels. That led to a round of technical buying that lifted May futures 28.5 cents to $16.4775 and July futures 24 cents to $16.2750.
Soybean basis bids tumbled 12 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal on Thursday but held steady elsewhere across the central U.S. today.
Soybean exports saw 29.4 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 11.0 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 40.4 million bushels last week. That was near the middle of trade guesses, which ranged between 22.0 million and 57.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still running almost 400 million bushels behind last year’s pace, with 1.631 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments firmed 20% above the prior four-week average to 30.6 million bushels. China topped all destinations, with 16.9 million bushels.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s WASDE report, analysts expect USDA to lower 2021/22 ending soybean stocks from 285 million bushels in March down to 262 million bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged between 196 million and 305 million bushels.
Brazil’s Conab again lowered its estimates for the country’s embattled 2021/22 soybean production by another 2.4% to 4.499 billion bushels. If realized, that would be a year-over-year reduction of 11.4%. Conab also lowered its estimates for 2021/22 soybean exports by 3.9% to 2.829 billion bushels.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 211,859 contracts, tracking moderately above Wednesday’s final count of 143,816.
Wheat
Wheat prices faced substantial cuts on a round of pre-report technical selling and profit-taking after prices jumped higher earlier this week. May Chicago SRW futures lost 17 cents to $10.2125, May Kansas City HRW futures fell 12.25 cents to $10.7275, and May MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 8 cents to $11.0075.
Wheat exports gathered 5.7 million bushels in old crop sales and another 8.2 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 13.9 million bushels last week. That was a bit on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 3.7 million and 27.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately below last year’s pace, with 580.8 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments slid 8% below the prior four-week average to 11.4 million bushels. The Philippines led all destinations, with 3.2 million bushels.
Ahead of Friday morning’s WASDE report, analysts think USDA will slightly raise its estimates for 2021/22 wheat ending stocks from 653 million bushels in March up to 656 million bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged between 625 million and 703 million bushels.
Japan purchased 5.1 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 44% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in June.
The Philippines purchased 2.0 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from India, in an international tender that closed on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment in August.
As expected, Jordan issued a new international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes April 13. The country passed on all offers in a similar tender that closed yesterday. The grain would be for shipment between May and July.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 104,965 CBOT contracts, moving 43% ahead of Wednesday’s final count of 73,280.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
759.25
748.5
757.75
1.75
22-Jul
751
740.5
750.25
3.25
Soybeans
22-May
1652.75
1614.75
1645.5
28.25
22-Jul
1631.25
1599
1627
24
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
458.1
452.5
454.4
0.5
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
71.7
69.94
71.5
1.09
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1044.5
1017.75
1020
-17
22-Jul
1047.5
1023.25
1025.25
-14.75
KC Wheat
22-May
1090.25
1068.25
1070.75
-12.25
22-Jul
1092
1071
1073.25
-11
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1119
1097.5
1099.5
-8
22-Jul
1117.75
1097.25
1099.25
-8
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
138.45
137.9
137.925
0.225
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
161.1
159.175
159.65
-0.3
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
109.925
107.4
108.275
-0.25
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
98.82
93.81
96.47
0.24
Diesel
22-May
3.4129
3.1891
3.2705
-0.0747
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.1385
2.9867
3.038
-0.0082
Natural Gas
22-Jun
6.517
6.08
6.418
0.311
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
99.85
99.435
99.745
0.13
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1937.1
1920.4
1932.3
13.9
Copper
22-Apr
4.711
4.685
4.707
-0.0265
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/01)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
222
DAP-New Orleans
1,085.8
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
1,002.0
9.92
Urea-Middle East
1,130.0
0
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
689.0
2.76
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Afternoon report: Soybeans show strength while wheat weakens in Thursday’s session.
