Russia pulls back some troops from Ukrainian border, sending wheat lower. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn also falls on easing tensions between Russia and the West; soy falls on Argentine rains
Corn down 5-9 cents
Soybeans down 10-19 cents; Soymeal down $4.50/ton; Soyoil down $0.82/lb
Chicago wheat down 15-16 cents; Kansas City wheat down 15-16 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 7-9 cents
*Prices as of 7:05am CST.
Corn
Corn prices breathed a sigh of relief overnight as Russia appeared to be removing some troops from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest exporter of corn. Improving weather conditions in Argentina also lent some weakness to the corn complex overnight, though losses were offset by persistent dryness in Brazil.
“Feed grain prices still have other important issues to worry about,” Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters this morning. “Principally, that is an extending dry and hot period in some South American crop regions.”
At last glance, corn futures traded $0.05-$0.09/bushel on the overarching sentiments.
Soybeans
Rains are forecast in Argentina next week and Brazilian soybean harvest is gaining momentum. That combination of factors led soybean futures prices in Chicago to fall $0.10-$0.19/bushel overnight. Losses were capped by strong domestic demand for soybean processing in the U.S.
Palm oil prices, which compete with soyoil prices for market share, notched a record high overnight before profit-takers swooped in. Tight global edible oil supplies and struggling palm oil production forecasts in southeastern Asia pushed Malaysian palm oil futures to a record-breaking $1,379.62/tonne overnight. Soyoil prices followed those of palm oil lower this morning.
A USDA attache in Brasilia, Brazil released an updated forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop yesterday afternoon. The post estimates 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production at 4.94 billion bushels, an 18-million-bushel increase from USDA’s current estimate on Brazilian production of 4.92 billion bushels.
The post cited worsening drought in Brazil’s southern states as the primary driver for the revision. But perhaps the more significant piece of information from the attache report was the fact that Brazil is not likely to scale back domestic production in response to the tightening stocks, leading to lower exports in the 2021/22 season.
As trade estimates continue to fall for the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean crop, the window for late season export opportunities for U.S. growers continues to widen. Even though Chinese soy demand is expected to wane this year, global livestock feed demand will likely keep at least some buying interest alive in the soybean markets.
The National Oilseed Processors Association releases (NOPA) its first look at January 2022 soybean crush volumes today and pre-report estimates point to another bullish report for U.S. soybean growers.
Even though average trade guesses are only 0.1% higher than last month’s record-setting volume of 186.4 million bushels, today’s report estimate of 186.7 million bushels would best the December 2021 crush as the largest monthly haul on record.
Markets seem more confident about a strong January 2022 crush volume than in the previous month, with the pre-report estimate range of 183.4 million – 188.5 million bushels tightening from December 2021 estimates. Domestic and international demand for soyoil and soymeal remained strong in January 2022, especially as frigid temperatures in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest increased feed and protein requirements for livestock in the region.
Tightening global edible oil stocks following lower palm oil production from top global exporters Indonesia and Malaysia and sunflower oil stock supply concerns in Ukraine over the past month have sent competing soyoil prices rallying as the world scrambles to process enough edible oils to meet demand. Plus, about 669 million bushels of soybean feedstock has been eliminated from production estimates for South America over the past two months.
If today’s estimate is realized, three of the largest monthly soy crush volumes will have been recorded in the last four months. NOPA members handle approximately 95% of total U.S. soybeans sent into the processing pipeline.
Wheat
Russia began returning some troops stationed at the Ukrainian border back to their bases in the Motherland overnight. But it was not clear how many troops were being returned and large-scale military drills are continuing despite the minor removal.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz will continue diplomatic efforts today, meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin to continue discussing peaceful solutions to Russia’s demands. Markets remain wary of Putin’s motives and potential actions, though signs overnight pointed to progress.
It was enough to calm markets somewhat overnight, leading to a $0.08-$0.17/bushel selloff in the U.S. wheat market this morning. But the losses were likely capped by ongoing uncertainty about Russia’s intentions to potentially invade Ukraine and disrupt grain flows in the all-important Black Sea grain terminal.
Weather
While the Central and Southern Plains are set to enjoy temperatures in the 50s and 60s today, temperatures across much of the Midwest and Northern Plains will remain in the 20s and 40s, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. A year ago, the infamous Cold Snap was gripping the entire country – and chemical production in the U.S. Gulf has still not returned to normal capacity in its aftermath.
Mostly clear skies are forecast across the Heartland today. Scattered showers will likely pop up in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, though any accumulation will likely be light. A cross-country band of rain showers will likely begin traveling east across the Midwest late tomorrow evening.
Financials
Global financial markets rejoiced overnight at a potential Russian pullback from the Ukrainian border. Energy futures largely tumbled in response to easing relations with Russia, as Russia is among the world’s largest oil producers. However, natural gas prices remained elevated signaling that these energy markets will not likely be out of the clear until Russia has completely left the Ukrainian border.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Wholesale urea prices continue to slide. But high fuel costs could offset any potential price savings, warns Bryce Knorr.
Drone swarms, spot spraying technology – weed control is in a new era, writes Ben Potter.
The window to create 2022 financial projections is rapidly narrowing. Water Street Solutions CEO Darren Frye shows farmers the benefits of updating financial forecasts and how it can improve grain marketing plans amid these volatile 2022 markets.
Matthew Kruse thinks that Mato Grosso’s second corn crop will likely benefit from recent rains.
Are employees socializing on the job too much first thing in the morning? Darren Frye offers a fresh perspective on how to reframe this time into productive management.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 2/15/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAR ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.555
6.4525
6.465
-0.0925
-1.41%
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.545
6.445
6.46
-0.0925
-1.41%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4975
6.3975
6.4125
-0.0925
-1.42%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1025
6.045
6.0475
-0.065
-1.06%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
5.9725
5.92
5.9275
-0.055
-0.92%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.035
5.99
6
-0.0525
-0.87%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.0675
6.025
6.025
-0.0575
-0.95%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.77
15.5
15.5175
-0.1825
-1.16%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.81
15.5425
15.5625
-0.1775
-1.13%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.785
15.53
15.5475
-0.1725
-1.10%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.4725
15.255
15.265
-0.1525
-0.99%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.8125
14.6225
14.6225
-0.1475
-1.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.445
14.275
14.2975
-0.1275
-0.88%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.4125
14.2575
14.2625
-0.1375
-0.95%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.1025
13.995
13.995
-0.1325
-0.94%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.9625
13.9175
13.92
-0.0975
-0.70%
MAR ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
65.77
64.94
65
-0.81
-1.23%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
65.79
65.01
65.08
-0.77
-1.17%
MAR ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
451
443.5
444
-4.4
-0.98%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
448.8
441.7
442.5
-4.3
-0.96%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
447.3
440.7
441.5
-4.2
-0.94%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
437.8
432.2
433.2
-3.5
-0.80%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
426.2
421.6
421.6
-3.2
-0.75%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.0175
7.775
7.83
-0.1625
-2.03%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.085
7.8375
7.89
-0.165
-2.05%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.035
7.815
7.865
-0.1525
-1.90%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.0175
7.83
7.875
-0.1425
-1.78%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.035
7.86
7.91
-0.135
-1.68%
MAR ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.3025
8.075
8.1225
-0.1625
-1.96%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.32
8.1025
8.1525
-0.1575
-1.90%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.3275
8.1275
8.1625
-0.16
-1.92%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.355
8.1725
8.2025
-0.1525
-1.83%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.3875
8.2425
8.2825
-0.1475
-1.75%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.66
9.555
9.57
-0.09
-0.93%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.62
9.5225
9.535
-0.0875
-0.91%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.515
9.4575
9.48
-0.0775
-0.81%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.2875
9.1525
9.17
-0.12
-1.29%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.19
9.12
9.12
-0.1175
-1.27%
MAR ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
96.245
95.985
96.08
-0.276
-0.29%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
95.17
91.66
92.46
-3
-3.14%
AP ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
93.16
89.91
90.65
-2.85
-3.05%
MAR ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
2.9533
2.8547
2.8817
-0.0801
-2.70%
APR ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
2.8427
2.7537
2.7759
-0.0746
-2.62%
MAR ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.7735
2.6835
2.7005
-0.0789
-2.84%
APR ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.9016
2.8155
2.8304
-0.0764
-2.63%
MAR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
166.875
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
171.5
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
142.425
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
146.35
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
102.325
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
106.5
0
0.00%
FEB ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.82
#N/A
20.82
0
0.00%
MAR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
22.81
22.79
22.81
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
23.03
23
23
-0.25
-1.08%
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